大数据驱动的城市供水系统风险分析与决策方法

Nowadays, the development of information technology provides the possibility for forecasting and decision methods based on big data. In the complex water supply system, it is possible to obtain numerous multi-dimensional heterogeneous data. How to use these data to construct global view for improving the accuracy of decision becomes the new challenge faced by decision-makers. The research in this proposal focuses on the urban water supply system/network, establishes the management methodologies, tries to reduce the loss caused by water supply system/network risk and ensure the sustainability of urban cities, and ultimately improves the health condition of city residents. The main research content for the project are stated as follows: propose the key methodology of the construction of global view of big data and its application; establish urban water supply system/network risk assessment model and framework based on the global view and big data; identify the characteristics and trace the source of urban water supply system/network risk; propose the forecasting and early warning mechanism on the basis of spatial and temporal statistics; build the joint control and prevention mechanism of urban water supply system/network risk using Bayesian and evolutionary game in the big data environment. The new theory and method will be finalized by choosing typical studying cases. This project will deliver theoretical and practical guide to response to urban water supply system/network risk effectively, which aims at improving the level of urban water supply risk management in China.

信息技术的迅猛发展使大数据驱动的风险分析与决策成为可能。在复杂城市供水系统里，人们可以获取大量多维度、异构数据，如何利用大数据技术构造问题的全局视图，对系统进行全面综合评估与全局决策对决策者提出新的挑战。本项目以降低城市供水风险和损失为目标，提出城市风险管理机制，以确保城市居民身体健康与可持续发展。主要包括以下研究内容：提出管理与决策导向的大数据全局视图构建关键技术；构建大数据驱动的城市供水风险评价方法体系、识别与追溯风险源及特征；提出构建全局视图下供水风险评价体系与评估方法；给出大数据驱动的时空统计特征下的风险预测、预警机制；建立基于贝叶斯与演化博弈理论的协同控制与管理机制。通过选择典型案例研究等手段，最终完成城市供水系统风险管理方法和调控机制，旨在提高我国供水系统风险管理水平，为有效应对城市供水风险提供理论指导。

该项目以降低城市供水风险和损失为目标，提出了城市风险管理机制，旨在确保城市居民身体健康与可持续发展。主要完成的内容包括：提出了管理与决策导向的大数据全局视图构建关键技术；构建了大数据驱动的城市供水风险评价方法体系、识别与追溯风险源及特征；提出了构建全局视图下供水风险评价体系与评估方法；给出了大数据驱动的时空统计特征下的风险预测、预警机制；建立了基于贝叶斯与演化博弈理论的协同控制与管理机制。通过典型案例的研究，完成了城市供水系统风险管理方法和调控机制，为有效应对城市供水风险提供了理论指导。

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