Improving estimates of ocean productivity and carbon sequestration through a combination of autonomous observation- and model-based approaches

通过结合自主观测和基于模型的方法改进对海洋生产力和碳封存的估计

• 批准号: RGPIN-2022-02975
• 负责人: Fennel, Katja
• 金额: $ 4.44万
• 依托单位: Dalhousie University
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2022-01-01 至 2023-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=761593
• 关键词: Improving; estimates; ocean; productivity; carbon

The ocean is rapidly warming and becoming more stratified, which inhibits the vertical exchange of dissolved nutrients essential for maintaining photosynthetic primary production at the sea surface. Primary production supports the marine food web and plays a major role in regulating Earth's climate as a pathway for sequestering CO2 in the ocean's interior. Accurate quantification of ocean primary production and carbon sequestration, and their response to a warming climate are urgent scientific challenges but are hindered by the relative sparsity of biogeochemical observations. Measurements from research ships, while allowing for the broadest suite of direct measurements, are limited to a few point measurements due to the cost and effort required. Satellites can provide synoptic global coverage at high spatial resolution, but the only biogeochemical property observed is surface chlorophyll. The resulting gaps are hampering our ability to fully recognize changes in ocean biogeochemistry, to understand the underlying processes, and to test and improve models. The recent maturation of autonomous platforms and miniaturized biogeochemical sensors provides an opportunity to overcome the long-standing biogeochemical undersampling of the ocean, enabling us to observe changes by complementing traditional means of observation via satellites and ships. Autonomous platforms allow collection of highly resolved, unbiased, and sustained measurements of many essential biogeochemical ocean properties on the global scale in 3-dimensional space and in a cost-effective manner. Taking advantage of rapidly expanding autonomous ocean observation networks, in particular the biogeochemical (BGC) Argo program, the objectives of this research program are to 1) develop and apply new approaches for estimating ocean productivity and carbon export from autonomous observations, 2) rigorously test and refine ocean biogeochemical models using the newly emerging data to improve model capabilities, and 3) develop and apply statistical methods for blending autonomous biogeochemical observations and models to obtain the best possible estimates of the changing ocean state. A successful demonstration of the proposed approaches for estimating ocean productivity and carbon export will fundamentally transform international efforts to observe these processes, will strengthen the case for a sustained inclusion of autonomous platforms with BGC sensors in the global ocean observing system, and will lay the groundwork for enabling detection of climate-induced changes in the coming decades. A rigorous and systematic assessment of biogeochemical models will reduce uncertainties in global climate projections. Provision of well-constrained data-assimilative model products will directly benefit a variety of stakeholders in the northwest North Atlantic region. All of these outcomes are invaluable for sound mitigation of climate change impacts and effective steps toward net-zero carbon.

海洋正在迅速变暖并变得越来越分层，这抑制了溶解营养素的垂直交换对于维持海面的光合作用产量所必需的垂直交换。初级生产支持海洋食品网，并在调节地球气候作为隔离海洋内部二氧化碳的途径方面起着重要作用。对海洋初级生产和碳固执的准确定量及其对变暖气候的反应是紧迫的科学挑战，但受到生物地球化学观察的相对稀疏性的阻碍。由于所需的成本和努力，研究船上的测量虽然允许进行最广泛的直接测量套件。卫星可以在高空间分辨率下提供天气全球覆盖范围，但是观察到的唯一生物地球化学特性是表面叶绿素。由此产生的差距阻碍了我们完全识别海洋生物地球化学变化，了解基本过程并测试和改善模型的能力。自主平台和微型生物地球化学传感器的最新成熟为克服长期的生物地球化学的海洋采样提供了机会，使我们能够通过补充通过卫星和船只的传统观察手段来观察变化。自主平台允许以3维空间和经济有效的方式收集全球尺度上许多基本生物地球化学海洋特性的高度解决，公正和持续测量。利用快速扩大的自主海洋观察网络，特别是生物地球化学（BGC）ARGO计划，该研究计划的目标是1）开发并应用新方法来估计海洋生产率和自主观察中的海洋生产率和碳导出，2）严格测试并使用新的海洋模型来改善统计方法，并改善统计型号的模型，并改善模型的模型，并33生物地球化学观察结果和模型，以获得不断变化的海洋状态的最佳估计。成功地证明了估计海洋生产力和碳出口的拟议方法将从根本上改变国际努力来观察这些过程，将加强案例，以持续包含具有BGC传感器在全球海洋观察系统中的自主平台，并将为未来几十年代的气候变化奠定基础。对生物地球化学模型的严格和系统评估将减少全球气候预测中的不确定性。提供良好的数据合并模型产品将直接受益于北大西洋西北地区的各种利益相关者。所有这些结果对于减轻气候变化影响和净零碳的有效步骤是无价的。