Statistical Modelling of Infectious Disease and Environmental Systems

传染病和环境系统的统计模型

• 批准号: RGPIN-2018-04701
• 负责人: Deeth, Lorna
• 金额: $ 1.17万
• 依托单位: University of Guelph
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2022-01-01 至 2023-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=758946
• 关键词: Statistical; Modelling; Infectious; Disease; Environmental

Modelling the spread of infectious diseases is important for maintaining human, animal, and plant health, as well as maintaining economic security and international trade. Understanding what factors affect the spread of a disease, or which individuals are more likely to become infected is critical in preventing and controlling a disease outbreak.A class of statistical models, known as “individual-level models”, describe the spread of an infectious disease through a population by considering information for each individual within that population. These individuals could be individual people, plants, houses, or farms, each with their own unique set of information (such as geographical location, whether they have been vaccinated, etc.). Individual-level models use this very specific, individual-level information to describe how an infectious disease may spread across both space and time. The advantage these models is that they are very flexible, and allow for a population in which individuals are heterogeneous (e.g. not all the same). However, these models are limited in that they require a large amount of computational time, which may be unacceptable in the event of a disease outbreak when it is necessary to quickly understand how a disease.The research program described here aims to develop ways in which this computational burden can be reduced, while still accurately identifying factors which may influence the spread of the disease. Furthermore, this research program intends to develop a subgroup of individual-level models that can incorporate missing or potentially inaccurate individual-level data, a phenomenon that often arises in public health and other such data.Another objective of this research program is related to environmental effects monitoring initiatives (i.e., the joint federal and provincial government oil sands monitoring program in Alberta). Like the idea of surveillance for a disease outbreak, to determine whether human activity is having an environmental impact on wild populations (i.e., fish), it is necessary to identify when there are significant changes in these populations (i.e., size, weight, tumour incidence, reproductive success, etc.). The surveillance techniques for monitoring environmental effects need to be able to adapt to natural changes in the environment, as well as distinguish observed effects that are due to industrial/human influence and are not within the natural variation that is always present within an ecosystem. This proposed research program aims to develop statistical models for monitoring environmental effects that can identify significant population changes, while incorporating information about the surrounding environment and human activities that may be related to these changes. This information is pivotal in detecting impacts caused by industrial activities, and assessing the extent of any such impacts.

建模传染病的传播对于维持人，动物和植物健康以及维持经济安全和国际贸易非常重要。了解哪些因素会影响疾病的传播，或者哪些人更可能被感染对于预防和控制疾病暴发至关重要。一种称为“个人水平模型”的统计模型，描述了通过考虑该人群中每个人的信息来描述传染病通过人群的传播。这些人可以是个人，植物，房屋或农场，每个人都有自己独特的信息集（例如地理位置，是否已接种疫苗等）。个人级别的模型使用此非常具体的个人级别信息来描述传染病如何在空间和时间范围内传播。这些模型的优势在于它们非常灵活，并且允许个人是异质的人群（例如，并非全部相同）。但是，这些模型受到限制，因为它们需要大量的计算时间，如果有必要快速了解疾病的方式，这可能是无法接受的。这里描述的研究计划旨在开发可减少计算燃烧的方法，同时仍然准确地识别可能影响疾病传播的因素。此外，该研究计划旨在开发一个单个模型的子组，这些模型可能纳入丢失或可能不准确的个人级别数据，这一现象经常在公共卫生和其他此类数据中产生。该研究计划的另一个目标是与环境效应效应倡议有关（即联邦联邦和省级政府政府机油砂计划，，，Alberta in Alberta in Alberta）。就像疾病爆发的监测想法一样，以确定人类活动是否对野生种群（即鱼）产生影响，有必要确定这些人群何时发生重大变化（即大小，体重，肿瘤，繁殖成功等）。监测环境影响的监视技术需要能够适应环境的自然变化，以及由于工业/人类影响而引起的杰出观察效应，并且不在生态系统中始终存在的自然变异之内。该提出的研究计划旨在开发统计模型，以监视可以确定人口发生重大变化的环境影响的统计模型，同时编码有关周围环境和可能与这些变化有关的人类活动的信息。这些信息在检测工业活动引起的影响方面至关重要，并评估了任何此类影响的程度。