Identifying and understanding key drivers and determinants future permafrost thaw

识别和了解未来永久冻土融化的关键驱动因素和决定因素

• 批准号: RGPIN-2020-04783
• 负责人: Gruber, Stephan
• 金额: $ 2.62万
• 依托单位: Carleton University
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2022-01-01 至 2023-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=754909
• 关键词: Identifying; understanding; key; drivers; determinants

Identifying and understanding key drivers and determinants of future permafrost thaw This research program will make projections into the future and predict how strong the effects of permafrost thaw will be in coming decades and centuries. Thaw refers to some or all of the ice in the ground melting. Some of this ice may have been in the ground for thousands of years and humans may never have experienced a world without it. Today, more than one-third of Canada has permafrost in the subsurface and because of human-made climate change, much of this area will experience thaw and undergo very strong changes as a result. People can respond to changes as they happen or chose to look forward and adapt to what will likely happen in the future. Usually, looking forward enables smarter and less costly solutions and this research program contributes to this by better understanding the behaviour of permafrost thaw. We will select relevant behaviours, for example the amount of surface lowering because of ice-loss in the ground, and study how it changes over time. In one place, there may be a lot of lowering at first and after a few decades, this will stop. At another place there may be no lowering for a decade but when it starts, it continues for two centuries. Being able to predict this will help to make decision about where we build and how we use the land. And because no prediction is perfect, we also study what the most important factors are that drive these changes and which of them we know least. All of this is done with computer simulation where permafrost models get their data from Earth-system models that project global climate decades or centuries into the future. To trust these models, we need to see if they do a good job in predicting what we already know and have observed in the past. And also, as scientists we have a chance to learn when the prediction and the observation do not match. This is why this research program has a second part that observes permafrost thaw and then tests and improves the computer models we use. This is especially important because we have little data and very little experience of measuring permafrost thaw. By investigating thaw with measurements and with computer models, we can learn how it behaves in a robust way. Measurements ground us in the past and models allow to simulate what we do not yet know. Students and other trainees are key reason to perform academic research and Canada urgently needs experts capable of preparing for and responding to climate change. This research program exposes students and trainees to a combination of computer-based work, fieldwork in the north and collaboration with northerners. Such multi-talented graduates will be able to put the research results into practice for government, industry and communities and through their diverse experience and skill contribute to building resiliency in Canadian society.

确定和理解未来永久冻结融化的关键驱动因素和决定因素，这项研究计划将使未来的预测对未来的几十年和几个世纪以来永久性解冻的影响有多强。解冻是指地面融化中的一些或全部冰。这种冰中的一些可能已经存在了数千年的地面，没有它，人类可能永远不会经历过一个世界。如今，加拿大超过三分之一的地下有多年冻土，由于人为的气候变化，该领域的大部分地区都会融化并经历了很大的变化。 人们可以在发生变化或选择期待并适应将来可能发生的事情时做出反应。通常，向前看，实现更智能，更昂贵的解决方案，该研究计划通过更好地了解永久冻结的行为来做出贡献。我们将选择相关的行为，例如，由于地面上的冰损伤，表面降低量，并研究其随着时间的变化。在一个地方，首先可能会降低很多，几十年后，这将停止。在另一个地方，十年来可能没有降低，但是当它开始时，它持续了两个世纪。能够预测这将有助于对我们建造的位置以及我们如何使用土地做出决定。而且由于没有预测是完美的，我们还研究了最重要的因素是推动这些变化以及我们最不了解的哪些变化。所有这些都是通过计算机模拟来完成的，在该计算机模拟中，多年冻土模型从将全球气候数十年或几个世纪以来的地球系统模型中获取数据。为了信任这些模型，我们需要看看他们在预测过去已经知道和观察到的内容方面是否做得很好。而且，作为科学家，我们有机会学习何时预测和观察不匹配。这就是为什么该研究计划的第二部分观察到永久冻结融化，然后测试并改善我们使用的计算机模型的原因。这尤其重要，因为我们几乎没有数据，几乎没有测量永久冻结融化的经验。通过通过测量和计算机模型来研究解冻，我们可以学习它的表现。过去的测量结果是我们的，模型可以模拟我们尚未知道的内容。 学生和其他学员是进行学术研究的关键原因，加拿大迫切需要能够为气候变化做准备和应对的专家。该研究计划使学生和受训人员结合了基于计算机的工作，北部的实地调查以及与北方人的合作。这种多才多艺的毕业生将能够将研究成果纳入政府，工业和社区，并通过其多样化的经验和技能有助于在加拿大社会的建立弹性。