Development of ensemble optimization approaches for managing nested multi-level environmental risks

开发管理嵌套多级环境风险的集成优化方法

• 批准号: RGPIN-2019-05565
• 负责人: Huang, Gordon
• 金额: $ 7.21万
• 依托单位: University of Regina
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2022-01-01 至 2023-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=752789
• 关键词: Development; ensemble; optimization; approaches; managing

An energy and environmental (E&E) system is composed of multiple components related to various socio-economic and environmental concerns, such as resource availability, pollution load, environmental objective, public awareness, and economic impact. Deterministic information about the system is often unavailable such that rough estimations have to be made. On the other hand, an E&E system may contain a number of subsystems at different administrative levels, demonstrating a nested hierarchical feature. Extensive interactions exist among these subsystems, implying compound complexities within national, provincial/territorial and municipal contexts. In Canada, such nested interactions exist among various socio-economic and environmental components. This is especially true with the overall demarcation of northern territories and southern provinces, where unbalanced development is accompanied with strong interdependence between them; in particular, their distinct features in socio-economic development, resources conservation and environmental protection lead to unique complexities in managing the relevant multi-level E&E issues.      The objective of this research is to develop ensemble methods (EM) for managing nested multi-level and multi-dimensional environmental risks. This entails characterization of complexities in nested E&E systems, and development of ensemble methods based on aggregation for a multitude of innovative non-deterministic optimization models. The developed approaches will then be applied to Canadian cases.     In E&E systems, uncertainties may exhibit multiple forms; moreover, among various technologies for E&E management, none dares to claim a triton among the minnows, due to uncertainties in their modeling structures, boundary conditions, and parameter arrangements. Consequently, an ensemble approach will be developed to address these complexities. Rather than relying on one model and hoping that this model is the best, the ensemble approach allows us to take a myriad of base models into account, and aggregate them to produce a more robust decision support system. It will be based on a set of innovative methods for integrated stochastic, fuzzy and interval programming and multicriteria decision analysis. Based on the developed ensemble approach, the nested vulnerabilities and risks in Canadian E&E systems will be analyzed, and desired management plans will be generated.     The proposed research represents an innovation in terms of ensemble modeling based on a set of state-of-the-art non-deterministic optimization techniques for supporting E&E management under interactive uncertainties. Application of the proposed techniques to Canadian cases will help industries and governments to improve their effectiveness in managing nested multi-dimensional E&E problems. In particular, coordinated north-south management strategies will be generated to facilitate cross-region sustainable E&E and socio-economic development.

能源和环境（E＆E）系统由与各种社会经济和环境问题有关的多个组成部分组成，例如资源可用性，污染负荷，环境目标，公共意识和经济影响。有关系统的确定性信息通常不可用，因此必须进行粗略的估计。另一方面，E＆E系统可能在不同的管理级别包含许多子系统，这表明了嵌套的层次结构功能。这些子系统之间存在广泛的互动，这意味着国家，省/地区和文化背景中的复合复杂性。在加拿大，这种嵌套的相互作用存在于各种社会经济和环境组成部分之间。北部领土和南部规定的总体建议尤其如此，在这些规定中，不平衡的发展伴随着它们之间的强烈相互依存。特别是，它们在社会经济发展，资源保护和环境保护方面的独特特征导致了管理相关多层次E＆E问题的独特复杂性。这项研究的目的是开发用于管理嵌套多层次和多维环境风险的集合方法（EM）。该组织对嵌套E＆E系统中复杂性的表征，以及基于聚合的集合方法的开发，用于多层次创新的非确定性优化模型。然后，开发的方法将应用于加拿大案件。在E＆E系统中，不确定性可能存在多种形式。此外，在用于电子管理的各种技术中，由于其建模结构，边界条件和参数排列的不确定性，没有人敢于在小鱼之间索取Triton。因此，将开发一种合奏方法来解决这些复杂性。合奏方法不再依靠一个模型并希望该模型是最好的，而是让我们考虑了无数的基本模型，并汇总它们以产生更强大的决策支持系统。它将基于一组创新的方法，用于集成随机，模糊和间隔编程和多标准决策分析。基于开发的合奏方法，将分析加拿大E＆E系统中的嵌套漏洞和风险，并生成所需的管理计划。拟议的研究代表了基于一组最先进的非确定性优化技术来支持交互式不确定性下的E＆E管理的最先进的非确定性优化技术。提出的技术在加拿大案件中的应用将帮助行业和政府提高其在管理嵌套的多维E＆E问题方面的有效性。特别是，将制定协调的南北管理策略，以促进跨区域可持续的E＆E和社会经济发展。