Seamless prediction and reconstruction of plant-water interactions in the boreal biome

北方生物群落植物-水相互作用的无缝预测和重建

• 批准号: RGPIN-2021-04216
• 负责人: Boucher, Étienne
• 金额: $ 3.72万
• 依托单位: Université du Québec à Montréal
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2021
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2021-01-01 至 2022-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=742931
• 关键词: Seamless; prediction; reconstruction; plant; water

The overarching goal of my DG program is to enhance our ability to predict and reconstruct dynamic interactions between water and carbon cycles in cold boreal forests, at timescales ranging from days to millennia. This will generate much-needed improvements to our capacity to anticipate both short-term and long-term responses of boreal ecosystems to changes in the water cycle. It will also cast new light on critically important biophysical feedbacks that exist at the nexus of biosphere, atmosphere, and hydrosphere in the world's largest intact natural ecosystem. My group will make a significant leap forward in the field of dendroclimatology by seamlessly integrating timescales, water fluxes and ecophysiological processes, in a single, dynamic prediction continuum. Three complementary short-term objectives are formulated, each focussing on prediction problems relating to different timescales (weather- (SO-1), climate- (SO-2), and millennial-scale(SO-3)). SO1 will be dedicated to the prediction of short-term response to changes in water cycle properties. For example, how do short-term events affect the carbon storage capacity of forests? This is an important question because while climate change represents a long-term trend, the largest responses are usually triggered by extremes (dry / wet in our case). To shed light on these short-term responses, we will monitor growth and stable isotope fractionation in tree rings at a weekly timescale, and we will use a process-based model to simulate and predict observed changes. SO2 will focalize on predicting water-carbon cycling feedbacks in boreal forests in the context of climate change. Because water and carbon cycles are tightly coupled, climate change may impact one or the other, driving complicated feedbacks and retroactions that need to be quantified. To achieve this goal we will use eddy-covariance and tree ring stable isotope records simultaneously to constrain process-based modelling of large scale carbon-water cycle interactions. SO3 will aim at gaining knowledge on the millennial variability of hydrological cycle properties such as evapotranspiration, soil water content, precipitation, etc. We will then examine how Anthropocene changes in the water cycle depart from pre-industrial conditions and will attempt to attribute hydrological variability to external and internal mechanisms of forcing. The DG will enhance our capacity to forecast interactions and feedbacks between boreal water and carbon cycles in the face of climate change. It will also provide an original, dynamic, multi-scalar perspective on the evolution, vulnerability and fate of essential ecosystem services delivered by boreal forests : carbon storage and global warming mitigation through evapotranspiration.

我的 DG 计划的总体目标是提高我们预测和重建寒冷北方森林中水和碳循环之间动态相互作用的能力，时间尺度从几天到几千年不等，这将提高我们预测短期和短期的能力。 - 北方生态系统对水循环变化的长期反应也将为世界上最大的完整自然生态系统中生物圈、大气层和水圈之间存在的极其重要的生物物理反馈提供新的视角。我的小组将通过将时间尺度、水通量和生态生理过程无缝整合到一个动态预测连续体中，在树木气候学领域取得重大飞跃，制定了三个互补的短期目标，每个目标都侧重于与不同时间尺度相关的预测问题。 （天气-（SO-1）、气候-（SO-2）和千禧年尺度（SO-3）将致力于预测水循环变化的短期响应。例如，短期事件如何影响森林的碳储存能力？这是一个重要的问题，因为虽然气候变化代表了长期趋势，但最大的反应通常是由极端事件（在我们的例子中是干/湿）引发的。为了阐明这些短期反应，我们将每周监测树木年轮的生长和稳定同位素分馏，并且我们将使用基于过程的模型来模拟和预测观测到的 SO2 变化，重点是预测水。 -碳循环反馈由于水和碳循环紧密耦合，气候变化可能会影响其中之一，从而推动需要量化的复杂反馈和回溯，为了实现这一目标，我们将使用涡度协方差和树木。同时环稳定同位素记录以约束大规模碳-水循环相互作用的基于过程的建模，旨在获得有关水文循环特性（例如蒸散量、土壤含水量、降水量等）的千年变化的知识。然后研究人类世水循环的变化如何偏离工业化前的条件，并将尝试将水文变化归因于外部和内部的强迫机制，DG将增强我们预测北方水和碳循环之间相互作用和反馈的能力。它还将为北方森林提供的基本生态系统服务的演变、脆弱性和命运提供原创的、动态的、多尺度的视角：碳储存和通过蒸散减缓全球变暖。