Asymptotic and transient dynamics in predator-prey systems with spatial and temporal heterogeneity

具有时空异质性的捕食者-被捕食系统的渐近和瞬态动力学

• 批准号: RGPIN-2020-06825
• 负责人: Wang, Xiaoying
• 金额: $ 1.68万
• 依托单位: Trent University
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2021
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2021-01-01 至 2022-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=741457
• 关键词: Asymptotic; transient; dynamics; predator; prey

This proposed research program will: (1) study the fear induced interspecific and intraspecific interactions in food-web systems; (2) explore the temperature-dependent phenology in predator-prey systems; (3) study the transient behavior in population dynamics. For (1), the focus will be two-fold: I will study both the competition outcome of species under indirect predation risk and the cascading effect of fear in ecological systems with more than two trophic levels. The models I develop in (1) will extend our previous results of the predator-prey systems with fear effect to systems involving spatial and temporal heterogeneity. This will lead to a thorough examination of the fear effect in the meta community, enrich our understanding of how species interact, and facilitate implementing appropriate strategies for ecosystem management. For (2), the focus will be on studying how temperature-dependent phenological events affect species' spatial distribution in a seasonal environment. Phenological events such as, emergence time or reproduction, impact when and for how long prey and predator interact and are subject to environmental variations such as the climatic change. Moreover, for a large class of species, the dispersal patterns vary significantly among different seasons. I plan to formulate seasonal models that combine the two effects in a mechanistic approach and study their impact on species persistence and spatial distribution. This will deepen our recognition of how climatic change deteriorates ecosystem biodiversity. For (3), the focus will also be two-fold: I will explore how systems respond to perturbations in short and intermediate time scales and I will investigate the underlying mechanisms that induce abrupt change of solutions from one state to another, such as the jump between low densities and high densities in population dynamics models, before the asymptotic convergence. I will also apply the obtained results on transient dynamics to ecological systems and infectious disease models, such that short-term predictions of the population density variation or disease spread can be made.

该拟议的研究计划将：（1）研究食物网系统中恐惧引起的种间和种内相互作用； （2）探索捕食者-被捕食系统中温度依赖性物候； (3)研究种群动态中的瞬态行为。对于（1），重点有两个：我将研究间接捕食风险下物种的竞争结果以及具有两个以上营养级的生态系统中恐惧的级联效应。我在（1）中开发的模型将把我们之前关于具有恐惧效应的捕食者-猎物系统的结果扩展到涉及空间和时间异质性的系统。这将导致对元群落中的恐惧效应进行彻底的检查，丰富我们对物种如何相互作用的理解，并促进实施适当的生态系统管理策略。对于（2），重点是研究温度依赖性物候事件如何影响季节性环境中物种的空间分布。物候事件，例如出现时间或繁殖，会影响猎物和捕食者相互作用的时间和持续时间，并受到气候变化等环境变化的影响。此外，对于一大类物种来说，不同季节的扩散模式差异很大。我计划制定季节模型，以机械方法结合这两种效应，并研究它们对物种持久性和空间分布的影响。这将加深我们对气候变化如何恶化生态系统生物多样性的认识。对于（3），重点也将有两个：我将探索系统如何在短和中时间尺度内响应扰动，并且我将研究导致解从一种状态突然改变到另一种状态的潜在机制，例如在渐近收敛之前，种群动态模型中的低密度和高密度之间的跳跃。我还将把获得的瞬态动力学结果应用到生态系统和传染病模型中，以便可以对人口密度变化或疾病传播进行短期预测。