Asymptotic and transient dynamics in predator-prey systems with spatial and temporal heterogeneity

具有时空异质性的捕食者-被捕食系统的渐近和瞬态动力学

• 批准号: RGPIN-2020-06825
• 负责人: Wang, Xiaoying
• 金额: $ 1.68万
• 依托单位: Trent University
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2021
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2021-01-01 至 2022-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=741457
• 关键词: Asymptotic; transient; dynamics; predator; prey

This proposed research program will: (1) study the fear induced interspecific and intraspecific interactions in food-web systems; (2) explore the temperature-dependent phenology in predator-prey systems; (3) study the transient behavior in population dynamics. For (1), the focus will be two-fold: I will study both the competition outcome of species under indirect predation risk and the cascading effect of fear in ecological systems with more than two trophic levels. The models I develop in (1) will extend our previous results of the predator-prey systems with fear effect to systems involving spatial and temporal heterogeneity. This will lead to a thorough examination of the fear effect in the meta community, enrich our understanding of how species interact, and facilitate implementing appropriate strategies for ecosystem management. For (2), the focus will be on studying how temperature-dependent phenological events affect species' spatial distribution in a seasonal environment. Phenological events such as, emergence time or reproduction, impact when and for how long prey and predator interact and are subject to environmental variations such as the climatic change. Moreover, for a large class of species, the dispersal patterns vary significantly among different seasons. I plan to formulate seasonal models that combine the two effects in a mechanistic approach and study their impact on species persistence and spatial distribution. This will deepen our recognition of how climatic change deteriorates ecosystem biodiversity. For (3), the focus will also be two-fold: I will explore how systems respond to perturbations in short and intermediate time scales and I will investigate the underlying mechanisms that induce abrupt change of solutions from one state to another, such as the jump between low densities and high densities in population dynamics models, before the asymptotic convergence. I will also apply the obtained results on transient dynamics to ecological systems and infectious disease models, such that short-term predictions of the population density variation or disease spread can be made.

该提出的研究计划将：（1）研究恐惧在食品网络系统中引起的种间和种内相互作用； （2）探索捕食者 - 捕集系统中的温度依赖性物候； （3）研究种群动态的瞬态行为。对于（1），重点将是两个方面：我将研究在间接捕食风险下物种的竞争结果，以及在两个以上营养水平的生态系统中恐惧的级联效应。我在（1）中开发的模型将扩展我们先前的捕食者 - 捕集系统的结果，这些系统具有恐惧效果的涉及空间和时间异质性的系统。这将导致对元社区中恐惧效应的彻底检查，丰富我们对物种相互作用的理解，并促进为生态系统管理实施适当的策略。对于（2），重点将放在研究温度依赖性物候事件如何影响物种在季节性环境中的空间分布。物候事件（例如出现时间或繁殖）在捕食和捕食者相互作用的时间和范围内影响何时何时会受到环境变化的影响，例如气候变化。此外，对于大类物种，分散模式在不同季节之间差异很大。我计划制定将两种效应结合在机械方法中的季节模型，并研究它们对物种持久性和空间分布的影响。这将加深我们对气候变化如何恶化生态系统生物多样性的认识。对于（3），重点也将是两个方面：我将探讨系统如何在短时间和中间时间尺度上对扰动做出响应，我将研究诱导溶液从一个状态突然变化到另一种状态的突然变化的基本机制，例如，在异步转化之前，在人群动态模型中，低密度和高密度之间的跳跃。我还将在生态系统和传染病模型上应用瞬态动力学的结果，以便可以对人口密度变化或疾病扩散进行短期预测。