The Capacity of Populations to Respond to Climate Change

民众应对气候变化的能力

• 批准号: RGPIN-2017-06045
• 负责人: Neff, Bryan
• 金额: $ 2.4万
• 依托单位: University of Western Ontario
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2020
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2020-01-01 至 2021-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=712016
• 关键词: Capacity; Populations; Respond; Climate; Change

Climate change has the potential to reshape patterns of biodiversity on a global scale. Despite widespread recognition of these concerns, researchers are still trying to answer the central question: do populations have the capacity to respond to climate change or will they go extinct? Projected temperature increases are likely to be especially challenging for ectothermic species those that rely on external heat sources to control body temperature because of the many effects that temperature has on the biology of these organisms. Thermal performance defines the relationship between an individual's body temperature and fitness, and can be used as a framework for understanding the current geographical distributions of ectothermic species, and to predict the vulnerability of species to climate change. My research program will specifically assess the thermal performance of the cardiorespiratory system and its capacity to respond to climate change in both tropical and temperate fishes. The cardiorespiratory system is expected to be tightly linked to fitness in fishes, and its failure under heat stress may be a leading factor affecting population viability. My lab will detail both the responses of individuals exposed to higher temperatures during their lifetime (“phenotypic plasticity”) and the potential genetic responses of populations over evolutionary time (“adaptive potential”). My lab will also work to understand the mechanistic basis of variation in thermal performance by studying the contributions of heart morphology and mitochondrial efficiency to the upper temperature limits at which heart function collapses. Using experimental microcosms, we will provide a critical test of the hypothesized relationship between thermal performance traits and fitness, and thereby characterize the strength of selection acting on these traits. I will further monitor the evolution of thermal performance traits at elevated temperatures for multiple generations, measuring changes in adaptive potential and phenotypic plasticity and using a genomics approach to identify specific candidate genes associated with adaptation. These data will address gaps in our understanding of thermal performance, and are critical to construct predictive models of population and species extinction risk based on climate change scenarios. My lab will continue to work with decision-makers in government to incorporate these data and predictions into policy, particularly around the management of salmon, which are economically and socially important fishes to Canadians. My research program will thus address questions at the forefront of climate change research, and will provide a training environment that will allow my students to find employment in diverse sectors including academics, government and industry.

气候变化有可能在全球范围内重塑生物多样性的模式。尽管认识到这些问题，但研究人员仍在试图回答中心问题：人口是否有能力应对气候变化，还是会灭绝？对于依靠外部热源来控制体温的热热物种，预计温度升高可能特别具有挑战性，因为温度对这些生物的生物学产生了许多影响。热性能定义了个人的体温和适应性之间的关系，可以用作理解当前的热热物种的地理分布，并预测物种对气候变化的脆弱性。我的研究计划将专门评估心肺系统的热性能及其对热带和温度鱼类气候变化的反应能力。预计心肺系统将与鱼类的适应性紧密相关，并且其在热应激下的失败可能是影响种群生存能力的主要因素。我的实验室将详细介绍个人在一生中暴露于较高温度的人的反应（“表型可塑性”），以及在进化时间（“自适应潜力”）中人口的潜在遗传反应。我的实验室还将通过研究心脏形态和线粒体效率对心脏功能崩溃的高温限制的贡献来了解热性能变化的机理基础。使用实验性缩影，我们将对热性能性状和适应性之间的假设关系进行批判性测试，从而表征选择在这些特征上的选择强度。我将进一步监测高温下的热性能性状的演变，以衡量自适应潜力和表型可塑性的变化，并使用基因组学方法来识别与自适应相关的特定候选基因。这些数据将解决我们对热性能的理解的差距，并且对于基于气候变化情景构建人口和物种扩展风险的预测模型至关重要。我的实验室将继续与政府决策者合作，将这些数据和预测纳入政策，尤其是围绕鲑鱼的管理，这些鲑鱼对加拿大人来说是经济和社会上重要的鱼类。因此，我的研究计划将解决气候变化研究的最前沿的问题，并将提供培训环境，使我的学生能够在包括学者，政府和行业在内的潜水部门找到工作。