Improved characterization of permafrost vulnerability to support decision makers, infrastructure, and community stewardship in the Northwest Territories

改进永久冻土脆弱性的描述，以支持西北地区的决策者、基础设施和社区管理

• 批准号: 521584-2018
• 负责人: Berg, Aaron
• 金额: $ 10.09万
• 依托单位: University of Guelph
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Strategic Projects - Group
• 财政年份: 2020
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2020-01-01 至 2021-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=697186
• 关键词: Improved; characterization; permafrost; vulnerability; support

Permafrost is showing widespread signs of degradation that is expected to continue with climate warming. Permafrost distributions are critical to roads, buildings, pipelines, and waste containment in Canada's north, and thermokarst (terrain subsidence following thaw of ice-rich permafrost) threatens infrastructure, land stability, and community safety. We will develop improved models to predict ground ice content, using machine learning focused on spatial patterns as well as time-dependent simulation of vertical ground-ice profiles. We will use ground ice information from these two approaches to assess permafrost vulnerability to thermokarst at regional scales; regional maps will be corroborated with fine scale data collected as part of the proposed field program. This approach will allow us to refine and validate a regional predictive tool that can be used for planning additional infrastructure in the region or projecting maintenance schedules. These research activities will be focused in several regions of strategic importance for economic diversification in northwestern Canada: the 1) the Sahtú (oil and gas development), 2) the North Slave Lake (transportation, biofuels), 3) South Slave Lake (forestry, agriculture) regions. We will work with local communities in each focal region to incorporate Traditional Knowledge and to ensure that our tools are used to provide the most important information about the future of culturally important areas. Together, this research will aid the Geological Survey of Canada and the Northwest Territories Geological Survey by developing new decision-aids for predicting and detecting areas with a high potential for thermokarst. By enhancing knowledge of permafrost sensitivity in our three focal regions, we will provide government agencies and corporations critically needed baseline information required to support responsible decision-making for transportation, oil and gas development, and future industries including increased agricultural and forestry productivity. Our results will be brought to wider public attention via public talks, press releases, and through plain language newsletters distributed to communities.

永久冻土显示出广泛的退化迹象，预计随着气候变暖，永久冻土的分布对加拿大北部的道路、建筑物、管道和废物控制至关重要，而热岩溶（富含冰的永久冻土融化后的地面沉降）则威胁着基础设施。我们将使用专注于空间模式的机器学习以及垂直地冰剖面的时间相关模拟，开发改进的模型来预测地冰含量。通过这两种方法来评估区域尺度上的永久冻土对热岩溶的脆弱性；区域地图将与作为拟议实地计划的一部分收集的精细尺度数据进行证实，这种方法将使我们能够完善和验证可用于的区域预测工具。规划该地区的额外基础设施或计划维护计划。这些研究活动将集中在对加拿大西北部经济多元化具有战略重要性的几个地区：1) Sahtú（石油和天然气开发），2) 北奴湖。 （交通、生物燃料），3）南奴湖（林业、农业）地区我们将与每个重点地区的当地社区合作，整合传统知识，并确保我们的工具用于提供有关未来的最重要信息。这项研究将共同​​帮助加拿大地质调查局和西北地区地质调查局开发新的决策辅助工具，通过增强我们对永久冻土敏感性的了解来预测和检测具有较高热喀斯特潜力的地区。在三个重点领域，我们将向政府机构和企业提供急需的基准信息，以支持交通运输、石油和天然气开发以及未来行业（包括提高农业和林业生产力）的负责任决策。我们的成果将通过以下方式引起更广泛的公众关注。公开演讲、新闻稿以及通过向社区分发的通俗易懂的语言时事通讯。