Predicting future forests: Understanding diverse phenological responses in North American temperate forests and globally

预测未来森林：了解北美温带森林和全球的不同物候反应

• 批准号: RGPIN-2018-05038
• 负责人: Wolkovich, Elizabeth
• 金额: $ 3.42万
• 依托单位: University of British Columbia
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2019
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2019-01-01 至 2020-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=689551
• 关键词: Predicting; future; forests; Understanding; diverse

In recent years increasing attention has focused on plant phenology (the timing of recurring life history events such as leafout) as an important indicator of the biological impacts of climate change, as many temperate plants have shifted their timing earlier with increasing temperatures. As data have accumulated, researchers have found a link between phenological responses to warming and plant performance and plant invasions. Such work suggests phenology may not only be a major impact of warming, but a critical predictor of future plant performance. These studies, however, often consider phenology as a singular plant trait---one that may critically influence plant performance and spread but is not tied to other major traits. In contrast plant phenology could be considered as one of many correlated traits making up a plant's trait syndrome. I suggest progress can come from explicitly considering phenology as a critical plant trait correlated with other major functional traits.******Previous research highlights a trade-off where earlier phenologies are associated with a suite of traits related to rapid return on investment, but lower competitive ability, while species leafing and flowering later show the reverse. This axis makes sense when considering how stress, disturbance and competition vary across the growing season in temperate systems: early in the season when abiotic stress and disturbance are high (e.g., frosts etc.), but competition low, an early-flowering, rapid growth, and comparatively low-investment strategy allows species to grow and reproduce quickly before periods of strong competition begin. This research program will test for evidence of this trade-off across >100 woody species and how it relates to plant performance with climate change. Such a trade-off would mean phenology's strong links to invasions and performance with climate change may be only one piece of a larger story of how a correlated set of traits are promoted by warming, and contribute to the lab's larger goal of understanding how plant communities assemble and dis-assemble with climate change. ******The proposed work combines local, regional and global scale approaches to examine how phenology fits within a functional trait framework then tests for the relative roles of phenology and other major plant traits in driving plant performance. In particular this proposal will address the following questions: (1) How can we best predict woody species phenological responses to climate change considering the three major cues of spring warming temperatures, winter chilling temperatures and daylength? (2) What is the relationship between phenology and performance in temperate woody species? (3) How do major functional traits relate to plant phenological responses to climate? (4) What is the relative importance of phenology versus other functional traits in predicting plant performance responses to climate change?**

近年来，越来越多的注意力集中在植物候位（诸如叶子之类的重复生活历史事件的时机），这是气候变化的生物学影响的重要指标，因为许多温带植物随着温度的升高使时间较早地改变了时间。随着数据的积累，研究人员发现了物候反应与变暖与植物性能与植物入侵之间的联系。这样的工作表明，物候不仅可能是变暖的主要影响，而且是未来植物性能的关键预测指标。然而，这些研究通常将物候学视为一种奇异的植物特征 - 可能会严重影响植物的性能和传播，但不与其他主要特征相关。相比之下，植物物候学可以被认为是构成植物特征综合征的许多相关性状之一。我认为进步可能来自明确考虑物候学作为与其他主要功能性状相关的关键植物特征。******先前的研究突出了一个权衡，其中早期的候位物与与快速投资回报相关的一系列特征相关，但竞争能力较低，而物种叶片和开花后来表现为反向。当考虑在温带系统中的压力，干扰和竞争如何变化时，该轴是有道理的：在非生物压力和干扰较高的季节初期（例如，霜冻等），但竞争较低，竞争较低，竞争较低，早期开花，快速增长和比较低的投资策略使物种能够在激烈的竞争开始之前快速生长和再现。该研究计划将测试> 100种木本植物的这种权衡的证据，以及与气候变化的植物性能之间的关系。 这种权衡将意味着物候学与入侵和气候变化的表现的牢固联系可能只是一个更大的故事，即如何通过变暖来促进一组相关性状集，并为实验室的更大目标促进了了解植物群落如何与气候变化组装和分配的更大目标。 *****拟议的工作结合了本地，区域和全球规模的方法，以检查物候学如何适合功能性状框架内的属性，然后测试物候和其他主要植物特征在推动植物性能中的相对作用。特别是该提案将解决以下问题：（1）考虑到春季变暖的温度，冬季寒冷的温度和日程的三个主要提示，我们如何才能最好地预测木质物种对气候变化的木材物候反应？ （2）温带木本的物候与表现之间的关系是什么？ （3）主要功能性状与植物对气候的物候反应有何关系？ （4）物候学与其他功能性状在预测植物对气候变化的反应中的相对重要性是什么？**