From global change to regional response: Integrating global and regional climate model simulations with alpine glacier mass balance and downstream hydrology

从全球变化到区域响应：将全球和区域气候模型模拟与高山冰川质量平衡和下游水文相结合

• 批准号: RGPIN-2016-04094
• 负责人: Bush, Andrew
• 金额: $ 1.75万
• 依托单位: University of Alberta
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2019
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2019-01-01 至 2020-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=679740
• 关键词: global; change; regional; response; Integrating

The impact of future climate change on glaciated regions of the world (both high altitude and high latitude) has important ramifications for the availability of freshwater. Sectors highly dependent on sustained and robust levels of glacial/snow meltwater during the summer melt season include agriculture, hydroelectric power production, and public availability of freshwater. Other related factors dependent on Earth's glaciers include global sea level, the geopolitics of trans-border river flows, and the dangers of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs). In certain regions of the world (for example, the countries spanned by the Himalaya) glacial meltwater is the primary source of freshwater yet GLOFs have been on the increase in the Himalaya, the Alps, and the Andes, killing thousands of people and causing millions of dollars in damage to settlements, infrastructure, and livestock. I plan to focus the research outlined below on two sensitive regions of the globe: western Canada (British Columbia and Alberta) and the Himalaya (Pakistan, India, and Nepal).******The physical links and interactions between global climate, regional climate, alpine glaciers, and hydrology have not been explored. There are numerical models for each of these facets of the climate system but linking them together in a robust way that is capable of forecasting is a significant numerical challenge given the disparate spatial and temporal scales on which each component operates.******My group at the University of Alberta has focused on climate change over the western Canadian Cordillera and the Himalaya under a “business-as-usual” emission scenario for the next century, and we have incorporated global and regional climate models to address these issues. We are now focused on a high-end emission scenario using the latest coupled atmosphere-ocean GCM (ESM2M) from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory in Princeton. The Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) has been our tool for downscaling the GCM data. We have developed a glacier mass balance model within WRF that is interactive with the atmospheric model and can also represent debris-covered glaciers, which are so prevalent in the Himalaya. The next step in this chain of numerical work is to link predictions of glacier mass balance with hydrology and downhill streamflow, with particular attention paid to detailed topography, the possibility of glacial lake formation, and freshwater availability. A number of distributed hydrological models are available that can exploit results from WRF simulations for future climates. We have started by using the SWAT hydrology model and have configured it for use over both Alberta and Nepal.******The proposed research integrates the fields of atmospheric, oceanic, cryospheric, and hydrologic modelling while retaining an element of fieldwork groundtruthing for the model development.********

未来气候变化对世界冰川地区（高海拔和高纬度）的影响对夏季融化季节高度依赖持续和强劲的冰川/雪融水水平的部门产生重要影响，包括农业、水力发电和淡水的公共供应取决于地球冰川的其他相关因素包括全球海平面、跨境河流的地缘政治以及冰川湖溃决的危险。在世界某些地区（例如喜马拉雅山脉跨越的国家），冰川融水是淡水的主要来源，但喜马拉雅山、阿尔卑斯山和安第斯山脉的洪水不断增加，造成数千人死亡。我计划将以下概述的研究重点放在全球两个敏感地区：加拿大西部（不列颠哥伦比亚省和艾伯塔省）和喜马拉雅山（巴基斯坦、印度和尼泊尔）。******全球气候、区域气候、高山冰川和水文学之间的物理联系和相互作用尚未得到探索。气候的各个方面都有数值模型。系统，但鉴于每个组件运行的时空尺度不同，以能够预测的稳健方式将它们连接在一起是一项重大的数字挑战。******我在阿尔伯塔大学的小组专注于气候变化加拿大西部科迪勒拉山脉和喜马拉雅山在下个世纪的“一切照旧”排放情景下，我们已经结合了全球和区域气候模型来解决这些问题，我们现在专注于使用最新的大气-海洋耦合 GCM 的高端排放情景。 (ESM2M) 来自普林斯顿的地球物理流体动力学实验室。天气研究和预报模型 (WRF) 是我们缩小 GCM 数据规模的工具。我们在 WRF 中开发了一个与交互的冰川质量平衡模型。这一系列数值工作的下一步是将冰川质量平衡的预测与水文和下坡水流联系起来，特别关注详细的地形。 、冰川湖形成的可能性和淡水可用性 有许多分布式水文模型可以利用 WRF 模拟的结果来预测未来的气候。我们已经开始使用 SWAT 水文模型并对其进行配置以供使用。覆盖阿尔伯塔省和尼泊尔。*****拟议的研究整合了大气、海洋、冰冻圈和水文建模领域，同时保留了模型开发的实地工作基础实况元素。********