Modeling of urban hydrologic processes in the context of climate variability and climate change

气候变率和气候变化背景下的城市水文过程建模

• 批准号: RGPIN-2017-05443
• 负责人: Nguyen, VanThanhVan
• 金额: $ 1.75万
• 依托单位: McGill University
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2018
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2018-01-01 至 2019-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=660903
• 关键词: Modeling; urban; hydrologic; processes; context

The proposed research aims at the overarching scientific question: “How to predict accurately at the urban basin scale changes in precipitation, temperature, and runoff processes caused by climate variability and climate change?” ******To address this critical question, the main challenge is to develop an “integrated climate-urban hydrologic processes modeling framework” that could accurately describe the linkages between climate variables at global or regional scales and hydrologic processes at a local site or over an urban area. This necessitates the development of downscaling procedures for linking coarse-resolution climate model outputs down to much finer spatial grids, and even virtually point values if changes in local urban processes are to be assessed. Further, the time scales required for urban hydrologic modelling are usually less than one day. Another critical issue is the current limited ability of existing climate models in providing accurate and reliable precipitation projections since these models still do not contain an adequate description of the precipitation governing processes at the relevant scales for urban areas. Hence, to develop this integrated downscaling framework, the proposed research program involves three main components: (i) Modelling of sub-daily temperature processes: a multivariate statistical model will be developed for simulating hourly temperature extremes at many sites concurrently in the context of climate change; (ii) Modelling of sub-daily rainfall processes: stochastic models will be developed for simulating sub-daily rainfall series at a single site as well as at different sites concurrently; and (iii) Modelling of urban runoff process:a decision support tool will be developed to provide an integrated linkage between temperature and precipitation models and urban runoff model. This decision support tool will be used to examine the sensitivity of runoff characteristics to the changes in rainfall and temperature extremes due to climate variability.******It is expected that results of this research will enhance our collective understanding of climate variability and their effects in urban regions, will provide essential tools for developing more cost-effective design procedures and more accurate vulnerability assessment methods, and ultimately will help policy-makers in developing appropriate adaptive strategies for effective management of our urban water systems. The proposed research deals exclusively with issues that have been received considerable attention due substantial investment involved. For instance, climate variability can stress Canada's urban water systems leading to water supply shortages or disruptions, and extreme storms and floods have often caused severe substantial property and extensive economic damages in urban areas (e.g., recent devastating floods in the City of Calgary and in the City of Toronto in 2013).

拟议的研究旨在提出一个总体科学问题：“如何在城市盆地量表上准确预测精度，温度和径流过程，这是由于气候变量和气候变化引起的？” *****为了解决这个关键问题，主要的挑战是开发“综合的气候 - 城市水文过程建模框架”，该过程可以准确地描述全球或区域尺度上的气候变量与当地地点或城市区域上的气候变量之间的联系。这需要开发缩小程序，以将粗分辨率气候模型的输出链接到更精细的空间基础，甚至如果要评估本地城市过程中的变化，则实际上是点值。此外，城市水文建模所需的时间尺度通常不到一天。另一个关键问题是现有气候模型在提供准确可靠的降水预测方面的有限能力，因为这些模型仍然不包含对城市地区相关规模的降水处理过程的充分描述。因此，为了开发这种综合的缩减框架，提出的研究计划涉及三个主要组成部分：（i）亚每日温度过程的建模：将开发一个多变量统计模型，用于在攀岩变化的背景下同时在许多地点模拟小时温度的极端； （ii）亚每日降雨过程的建模：将开发随机模型，以模拟单个位置以及在不同地点的下天降雨序列； （iii）城市径流过程的建模：将开发一种决策支持工具，以在温度和降水模型与城市径流模型之间提供综合联系。该决策支持工具将用于检查径流特征对由于气候变化而引起的降雨和温度变化的敏感性。系统。拟议的研究专门涉及由于涉及大量投资而受到广泛关注的问题。例如，气候变异性会强调加拿大城市供水系统，导致供水短缺或中断，极端的风暴和地板通常在城市地区造成严重的实质性财产和广泛的经济损失（例如，卡尔加里市最近的毁灭性地板和2013年多伦多市的毁灭性地板）。