Impacts of climatic and environmental changes to Hydrologic Extremes and Adaptation strategies

气候和环境变化对水文极端事件的影响和适应策略

• 批准号: RGPIN-2017-04724
• 负责人: Gan, ThianYew
• 金额: $ 2.04万
• 依托单位: University of Alberta
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2018
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2018-01-01 至 2019-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=651482
• 关键词: Impacts; climatic; environmental; changes; Hydrologic

In recent years, severe storms have been occurring more frequently and in greater intensity across the world because of global warming, which could cause existing Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves for engineering design obsolete, e.g., thousands of basements of Edmonton were flooded in 1995, 2004 and 2012, by storms which based on existing IDF curves for the City are supposed to occur once every 100 years. In June 2013, the southern Alberta flood incurred a damage of $6 billion. On the other hand, the drought of 2001/02 had caused loss of multibillion dollar revenues from agriculture. Another impact of warming will be the water availability of most Canadian watersheds dominated by snowpack because a warmer climate means an earlier onset of spring snowmelt and enhanced evaporation loss in the summer, resulting in decreased summer streamflow most needed for summer growing seasons. This research will advance our understanding of climate change and our ability to predict the impact of warming to changes in the climate and water resources of Canada. Specifically, for flood hazards: (1) To conduct in-depth analysis of extreme precipitation events to assess their spatial variability and projected changes in selected regions across Canada, given that different climatic regimes can respond differently to climate change impact; (2) To test the applicability of commonly used extreme precipitation indices over these regions, and to develop new extreme precipitation indices; (3) To estimate return periods of future extreme storms based on regional IDF curves estimated from simulations of a regional climate model coupled to a land surface model to account for the land-atmosphere feedback and subjected to the latest RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) climate scenarios of IPCC (2013); (4) To conduct a drought analysis using observed climate data and versatile drought index algorithms for summer over coherent regions of Canada; (5) To understand the impact of climate change to future droughts, selected drought indices will be simulated from RCP climate scenarios statistically or dynamically downscaled for 2050s and 2080s. To simulate the possible combined impact of climate change and El Niño events historically associated with below normal precipitation in western Canada, a bootstrap resampling approach will be used to generate 30-year period datasets adjusted for the combined impact of climate change based on RCP climate scenarios and ENSO using the quantile-quantile mapping method for 2050s and 2080s. The potential impact of climate change to the future water sources of Canadian watersheds dominated by spring snowmelt will be simulated by a hydrologic model forced with downscaled RCP climate scenarios of IPCC (2013). Lastly, adaptation strategies, early warning systems and capacity building measures will be examined to promote preparedness of Canada against climate change impact.

近年来，全世界的严重风暴越来越强度，是因为工程设计过时的性别歧视强度 - 持续频率（IDF）曲线过时，例如，成千上万的埃德蒙顿在1995年，2004年和2012年被洪水泛滥纽约市一次一次。春季的春季融雪在夏季的蒸发损失，导致夏季生长季节的夏季流量减少。在加拿大的选定地区中，改变了不同的气候制度，可以对这些地区的影响有所不同；大气反馈并受到IPCC（2013）TA的最新RCP（代表性浓度途径），而多才多艺的干旱指数算法则与加拿大的连贯性相比，对2050年代和2080年代的未来干旱影响（5）历史上可能发生的漫画变化和El Nionyo事件与加拿大西部的正常情况相关，将在基于RCP气候和ENSO的气候综合影响和使用2050年代的ENSO的气候综合影响下生成30年的Bootstrap重新推广数据集。和2080年代，气候变化对加拿大流域的未来水源的潜在影响，由水文模型强调RCP的RCP气候场景（2013年）。加拿大反对气候影响的影响。