The Development of Applied Real Options Approaches for the Valuation of Mining Projects

矿业项目估值应用实物期权方法的发展

• 批准号: RGPIN-2017-06627
• 负责人: Lawryshyn, Yuri
• 金额: $ 1.53万
• 依托单位: University of Toronto
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2017
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2017-01-01 至 2018-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=636547
• 关键词: Development; Applied; Real; Options; Approaches

Real option analysis (ROA) is recognized as a superior method to quantify the value of real-world investment opportunities where managerial flexibility can influence their worth, as compared to standard discounted cash-flow methods typically used in industry. A comprehensive ROA of an oil, gas or mineral mining project can improve the allocation of capital and managerial decision making and the methodology is currently used, to some degree, in the commodity extraction sectors. However, realistic models that try to account for a number of risk factors can be mathematically complex, and in situations where many future outcomes are possible, many layers of analysis may be required. Typically, managers are usually unable to understand the models and dismiss results that seem unintuitive to them. A recent empirical study showed that roughly 35% more value can be extracted from mining operations if managers had made better timing and capacity decisions.

与通常在行业中通常使用的标准折扣现金流量方法相比，实际期权分析（ROA）被认为是一种量化现实世界投资机会价值的卓越方法，而管理灵活性可以影响其价值。石油，天然气或矿物采矿项目的全面ROA可以改善资本和管理决策的分配，并且目前在某种程度上在商品提取部门中使用了方法。但是，试图解释许多风险因素的现实模型在数学上可能是复杂的，在许多可能的未来结果的情况下，可能需要许多分析层。通常，管理者通常无法理解模型，并忽略对他们似乎不直觉的结果。最近的一项实证研究表明，如果经理做出了更好的时间和容量决策，则可以从采矿业务中提取大约35％的价值。