Testing and Improving Models of Ice Sheet and Sea Level Evolution

测试和改进冰盖和海平面演变模型

基本信息

批准号：
355664-2013
负责人：
Milne, Glenn
金额：
$ 2.91万
依托单位：
University of Ottawa
依托单位国家：
加拿大
项目类别：
Discovery Grants Program - Individual
财政年份：
2017
资助国家：
加拿大
起止时间：
2017-01-01 至 2018-12-31
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=633681
关键词：
Testing Improving Models Ice Sheet

项目摘要

Sea-level rise is one of the primary hazards associated with current and expected global warming. There are two processes that will dominate this change at global scales: melting of land ice (Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, smaller glaciers and ice caps) and warming of the oceans (resulting in an expansion in ocean water volume). In Canada, as well as other high latitude regions that experienced glaciation during the last Ice Age, on-going land motion in response to the melting of ancient ice sheets is also a significant contributor to present day sea-level change. For example, coastal areas of Atlantic Canada are experiencing enhanced sea level rise (relative to the global mean) because of land subsidence due to the melting of ice between 20,000-7,000 years before present. The proposed research will contribute to our understanding of all of these processes through comparing output from computer models to observations relating to both past and present climate change. Specifically, models that simulate the response of ice sheets to climate change and those that simulate the corresponding changes in sea level will be tested and calibrated through these data-model comparisons. A primary focus of the research will be testing and improving models of Greenland ice sheet evolution so that the contribution of this ice sheet to future sea-level change can be more accurately determined. A key delivery of the research will be forecasts of future sea levels during the next century and beyond around Canadian coasts.

海平面上升是与当前和预期的全球变暖相关的主要危害之一。有两个过程将在全球范围内主导这一变化：陆地冰融化（格陵兰岛和南极冰盖、较小的冰川和冰盖）和海洋变暖（导致海水体积膨胀）。在加拿大以及在上一个冰河时期经历冰川作用的其他高纬度地区，古代冰盖融化导致的持续陆地运动也是当今海平面变化的重要因素。例如，由于 20,000 至 7,000 年前冰层融化导致地面沉降，加拿大大西洋沿岸地区正在经历海平面上升（相对于全球平均水平）。拟议的研究将通过将计算机模型的输出与过去和当前气候变化的观测结果进行比较，有助于我们理解所有这些过程。具体来说，将通过这些数据模型比较来测试和校准模拟冰盖对气候变化的响应的模型和模拟海平面相应变化的模型。该研究的主要重点将是测试和改进格陵兰冰盖演化模型，以便更准确地确定该冰盖对未来海平面变化的贡献。该研究的一个关键成果是预测下个世纪及加拿大海岸周围的未来海平面。