Stochastic Dynamic Programming and Monte Carlo Simulation for Valuing Corporate Debts

用于评估公司债务的随机动态规划和蒙特卡罗模拟

• 批准号: 261445-2013
• 负责人: BenAmeur, Hatem
• 金额: $ 1.75万
• 依托单位: HEC Montréal
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2016
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2016-01-01 至 2017-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=594566
• 关键词: Stochastic; Dynamic; Programming; Monte; Carlo

The aim of this research project is to design, solve, and implement a set of stochastic dynamic programs for 1- valuing a firm's corporate debt, 2- computing its yield spread, and 3- estimating its default probability. These models should be flexible enough to accommodate real-life complexities, and efficient enough to compete favourably with alternative constructions. Fair values of financial securities constitute a guide for trading, and, therefore, add efficiency to capital markets. The yield spreads and default probabilities of public companies highlight creditworthiness, and, therefore, help market participants avoid financial distress and adverse events such as corporate bankruptcy, which generates a loss of value for the firm's claimholders and a loss of positions for the firm's workers. According to the Bank for International Settlements and the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association, the total outstanding amount in the bond market is around US$100 trillion in 2012, among which 11% are issued by corporations. Unlike the US corporate bond market, which represents 50% of the worldwide corporate bond market, the Canadian one is smaller and less diversified, and, thus, less efficient. Theoretical signals are the most helpful for illiquid markets.

该研究项目的目的是设计，解决和实施一组随机动态计划，以评估公司的公司债务，2-计算其收益率的差异，3-估计其默认概率。这些模型应该足够灵活，以适应现实生活中的复杂性，并有效地与替代结构竞争。金融证券的公允价值构成了交易指南，因此增加了资本市场的效率。上市公司的收益率分布和默认概率强调了信誉，因此有助于市场参与者避免财务困扰和不利事件，例如公司破产，这会对公司的索赔持有人造成价值损失，并使该公司工人的职位丧失。根据国际定居银行以及证券行业和金融市场协会的数据，债券市场的总销售额约为2012年100万亿美元，其中11％由公司发行。与占全球公司债券市场50％的美国公司债券市场不同，加拿大债券市场较小且多元化较少，因此效率较低。理论信号对流动性不足的市场最有帮助。