Modelling glacier and ice sheet response to climate change

模拟冰川和冰盖对气候变化的响应

• 批准号: 227436-2009
• 负责人: Marshall, Shawn
• 金额: $ 4.66万
• 依托单位: University of Calgary
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2016
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2016-01-01 至 2017-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=594061
• 关键词: Modelling; glacier; ice; sheet; response

This research program aims to improve understanding of glacier and ice sheet response to climate change. My research group uses a combination of glaciological modelling and glacier-climate field studies to assess changes in glacier mass balance and to examine the role of glaciers as a dynamic component of Earth's climate system. Regionally, glacier and icefield retreat affects alpine ecology, tourism, hydroelectric power generation, and the supply of surface water for significant population bases and agricultural activities. We are developing glaciological models to simulate glacier and ice sheet evolution over decadal time scales. Field studies for the period 2009-2014 will focus on historical and future icefield changes and water resource implications in western Canada, building on our established research program on the Haig Glacier, Canadian Rockies. Beginning in spring 2009, we will expand these efforts to the Illecillewaet Glacier, Glacier National Park, B.C. The Illecillewaet is a headwaters region of the Columbia River, with a high percentage of glacier cover and a more maritime-influenced climate. Meteorological controls of snow accumulation and snow/ice melt may differ significantly from those in the Canadian Rockies. Globally, glacier and ice sheet retreat has accelerated the rate of sea level rise, with considerable uncertainty as to how much additional sea-level rise can be expected this century. Advances in coupled glacier-climate modelling are needed to address this. This includes a number of numerical modelling issues that we aim to confront: the inclusion of higher-order terms in the ice sheet stress balance, improvements to the numerical representation of glacier and ice sheet margins, and downscaling strategies for regional climate patterns in areas of complex topography. Climate fields need to be extrapolated from sparse observational records or interpolated from climate models (or reanalyses) to the scale of influence for glacier and ice sheet mass balance, order 1-10 km. Our field studies support the numerical modelling through examination of mass balance processes and high-elevation temperature and precipitation gradients, providing constraints on free parameters in regional- and global-scale glaciological modelling.

该研究计划旨在提高对冰川和冰盖对气候变化的反应的理解。我的研究小组结合了冰川学建模和冰川气候现场研究，以评估冰川质量平衡的变化，并研究冰川作为地球气候系统的动态组成部分的作用。在区域性上，冰川和冰原静修会影响高山的生态学，旅游业，水力发电发电，以及为重大人口基础和农业活动提供地表水的供应。我们正在开发冰川模型，以模拟十年时间尺度上的冰川和冰盖进化。 2009 - 2014年期间的现场研究将重点介绍加拿大西部的历史和未来的冰场变化和水资源的影响，这是我们在加拿大洛矶山脉Haig冰川的既定研究计划的基础上。从2009年春季开始，我们将把这些工作扩展到卑诗省冰川国家公园的Inlecillewaet冰川。 Inlecillewaet是哥伦比亚河的一个源泉地区，冰川覆盖率很高，气候更大。积雪和雪/冰融化的气象控制可能与加拿大落基山脉的气象控制可能明显不同。在全球，冰川和冰盖静修会加速了海平面上升的速度，对于本世纪预计会有多少额外的海平面上升的不确定性。需要解决冰川气候建模的进展来解决这一问题。这包括我们旨在面对的许多数值建模问题：在冰盖应力平衡中包含高阶项，改善冰川和冰盖边缘的数值表示，以及在复杂地形区域的区域气候模式的缩减策略。需要将气候场从稀疏的观测记录中推断，或者从气候模型（或重新分析）插值到冰川和冰片质量平衡的影响尺度，1-10 km。我们的现场研究通过检查质量平衡过程和高海拔温度和降水梯度来支持数值建模，从而对区域和全球规模的冰川学建模的自由参数产生限制。