Linking earthquake seismicity to underlying fault structure from studies of simple models

通过简单模型的研究将地震活动性与底层断层结构联系起来

• 批准号: RGPIN-2015-04446
• 负责人: Tiampo, Kristy
• 金额: $ 3.03万
• 依托单位: University of Western Ontario
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2015
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2015-01-01 至 2016-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=589807
• 关键词: Linking; earthquake; seismicity; underlying; fault; Linking; earthquake; seismicity; underlying; fault

Large earthquakes, as a natural disaster, represent an almost incomprehensible and incalculable risk to today’s urban populations in both eastern and western Canada. However, earthquake losses can be reduced through better knowledge of earthquake hazard, a prerequisite for preparation and mitigation. The goal of my research program is to provide a comprehensive understanding of the processes which govern natural and anthropogenic hazards and, in particular, those which generate earthquakes, and thus improve the associated estimates of regional seismic hazard. The long-term objective of this proposal is to link the underlying physical characteristics of an earthquake fault to the spatial and temporal patterns observed in natural seismicity, particularly those that govern the magnitude, location and recurrence. The short-term objectives are to provide quantitative measures of the effect of damage and fault mechanics on the spatial and temporal clustering in natural earthquakes and to define the relationship between fault surface properties, such as stress distribution or friction coefficient, and the associated seismic and geodetic time histories. Studies suggest that larger, stronger asperities produce bigger events and are associated with increased seismic hazard. Here, studies of the magnitude-frequency relation, foreshock-aftershock duration, and interevent time from natural and synthetic time series will provide invaluable insights into the mechanics of the fault surface from computer simulations of both simple faults and fault networks. This research program will, for the first time, extend this research to natural earthquake faults using historical seismic records. The primary question to be addressed here is: What is the relationship between the statistics of earthquake seismicity – a phenomenon that is easily and accurately measured today – and the fault parameters that control the magnitude, location and time-of-occurrence of the largest events? New outcomes include a better understanding of the physical process preceding the occurrence of large earthquakes through improved quantification of the physical factors that affect their short- and long-term behavior. The ability to quantify the precursory dynamics for large earthquakes is fundamental to our ability to assess both the magnitude and likelihood of future events, allowing us to significantly improve their predictability and more accurately assess the time-dependent seismic hazard.

作为自然灾害，大地震代表了加拿大东部和西部的当今城市人口几乎难以理解和不可估量的风险。但是，通过更好地了解地震危险，这是准备和缓解的先决条件，可以减少地震损失。我的研究计划的目的是对控制自然和人为危害的过程，尤其是那些产生地震的过程，从而提高区域地震危害的相关估计值。该提案的长期目标是将地震断层的基本物理特征与自然地震性观察到的空间和临时模式联系起来，尤其是那些控制大小，位置和复发的人。短期目标是提供定量衡量损伤和断层力学对天然地震中空间和临时聚类的影响，并确定断层表面特性（例如应力分布或摩擦系数）以及相关的地震时间和地球时间历史的关系。研究表明，更大，更强大的浅色会产生更大的事件，并与地震危害增加有关。在这里，对自然和合成时间序列的幅度频率关系，前锁 - 尾声持续时间以及活动时间的研究将提供来自简单故障和故障网络的计算机模拟的故障表面力学的宝贵见解。该研究计划将首次使用历史地震记录将这项研究扩展到自然地震断层。这里要解决的主要问题是：地震地震性统计数据之间的关系是什么 - 这种现象很容易准确地测量 - 控制最大事件的大小，位置，位置和时间的断层参数？新的结果包括通过改善影响其短期和长期行为的物理因素的量化，对大地震发生前的物理过程有更好的了解。量化大地震的预寿命动力学的能力是我们评估未来事件的幅度和可能性的能力，使我们能够显着提高其可预测性并更准确地评估时间依赖性的地震危害。