Linking earthquake seismicity to underlying fault structure from studies of simple models

通过简单模型的研究将地震活动性与底层断层结构联系起来

• 批准号: RGPIN-2015-04446
• 负责人: Tiampo, Kristy
• 金额: $ 3.03万
• 依托单位: University of Western Ontario
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2015
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2015-01-01 至 2016-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=589807
• 关键词: Linking; earthquake; seismicity; underlying; fault

Large earthquakes, as a natural disaster, represent an almost incomprehensible and incalculable risk to today’s urban populations in both eastern and western Canada. However, earthquake losses can be reduced through better knowledge of earthquake hazard, a prerequisite for preparation and mitigation. The goal of my research program is to provide a comprehensive understanding of the processes which govern natural and anthropogenic hazards and, in particular, those which generate earthquakes, and thus improve the associated estimates of regional seismic hazard. The long-term objective of this proposal is to link the underlying physical characteristics of an earthquake fault to the spatial and temporal patterns observed in natural seismicity, particularly those that govern the magnitude, location and recurrence. The short-term objectives are to provide quantitative measures of the effect of damage and fault mechanics on the spatial and temporal clustering in natural earthquakes and to define the relationship between fault surface properties, such as stress distribution or friction coefficient, and the associated seismic and geodetic time histories. Studies suggest that larger, stronger asperities produce bigger events and are associated with increased seismic hazard. Here, studies of the magnitude-frequency relation, foreshock-aftershock duration, and interevent time from natural and synthetic time series will provide invaluable insights into the mechanics of the fault surface from computer simulations of both simple faults and fault networks. This research program will, for the first time, extend this research to natural earthquake faults using historical seismic records. The primary question to be addressed here is: What is the relationship between the statistics of earthquake seismicity – a phenomenon that is easily and accurately measured today – and the fault parameters that control the magnitude, location and time-of-occurrence of the largest events? New outcomes include a better understanding of the physical process preceding the occurrence of large earthquakes through improved quantification of the physical factors that affect their short- and long-term behavior. The ability to quantify the precursory dynamics for large earthquakes is fundamental to our ability to assess both the magnitude and likelihood of future events, allowing us to significantly improve their predictability and more accurately assess the time-dependent seismic hazard.

大型地震作为当今的灾难，当今博斯特·博特（Bothn Bothn）和加拿大西部（Bother Bothn Bothn and Canada）的损失可以减少地震危害。天然的纳直危危害，尤其是产生地震的天然危害。在天然地震中的空间和时间聚类上的损害，与断层特性系数之间的关系以及相关的地震时间和地震时间历史。国际自然和综合时期将对电脑表面的机械师提供宝贵的见解，而earch计划将使用历史上的持续记录扩展到纳斯奎特人。很容易，准确地测量y-和故障参数是大thythqukes的胸腔前期术的幅度，这些因素会影响其短期行为，这对于大地震的前体动力学是基础的。在未来的事件中，全明显地提高了其可预测性，并更加宽容地评估了SEISM IC危害。