Microsimulating Urban Systems

微观模拟城市系统

• 批准号: RGPIN-2014-04479
• 负责人: Miller, Eric
• 金额: $ 4.81万
• 依托单位: University of Toronto
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2015
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2015-01-01 至 2016-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=587835
• 关键词: Microsimulating; Urban; Systems

It has long been recognized that urban transportation systems and built form are fundamentally intertwined: the transportation system provides access to land, thereby making it usable and helping to shape the distribution, types and densities of activities over space, while the built form and its associated spatial distribution of activities generates the demand for transportation services and the performance of the transportation system through the loading of this demand onto the road, transit and active (walk/bike) networks. The various adverse, “unintended” impacts of urban transportation systems (congestion, pollution, greenhouse gas emissions, accidents, etc.) are not solely the product of the transportation system, nor are “solutions” to these problems solely achievable through transportation system improvements. The way in which we build our urban regions is a fundamental determinant of transportation system performance, and more sustainable urban regions will require a coordinated and systematic redesign of both our built form and transportation systems. Recognition of this fundamental transportation – land use interaction directly implies the need for comprehensive, integrated models of transportation and land use that capture the two-way interactions between the two systems and that thereby allow the full impacts on an urban region of both transportation and land use policies to be systematically explored. With over 80% of Canadians living within urban regions, integrated urban models offer the potential to provide robust, credible forecasts of policy impacts to support improved, evidence-based decision-making concerning transportation and land use investments and policies. Given the billions of dollars that are expected to be spent in the coming decades on transit systems alone in this country, along with the serious challenges faced by our cities to remain high quality homes for our population in the face of continuing growth, such improved decision support tools can play a key role in finding cost-effective, sustainable paths into the future for our metropolitan regions. The Integrated Land Use, Transportation, Environment (ILUTE) model system is a state-of-the-art agent-based, integrated microsimulation model of urban spatial socio-economic processes (demographics, housing markets, travel, etc.). An operational prototype has previously been developed by the research team. The primary objective of the proposed research is to complete ILUTE as a fully operational tool for urban systems modelling and policy analysis. In addition to the development and deployment of this “ILUTE Version 1”, a second, longer-term objective of this research project is to begin work on the design of an “ILUTE 2.0” that is based on a strong, consistent theoretical framework, and new, emerging computational capabilities, datasets and modelling methods. This “2.0” design work will proceed in parallel with the “1.0” implementation. It will not result in an operational “2.0” system within the lifetime of this project, but it will lay the foundation for future work in this direction.

长期以来，人们一直认识到，城市运输系统和建筑形式是从根本上交织在一起的：运输系统提供了通往土地的途径，从而使其可用并帮助塑造空间上活动的分布，类型和密度，而建立形式及其相关的空间分布会产生对运输服务的需求，并通过对这种运输的需求进行运输系统的性能，而这些需求是该路线的运输系统，即行驶和有效的网络（步行/自行车）。城市运输系统（拥堵，污染，温室气体排放，事故等）的各种不利的“无意义”影响不仅是运输系统的乘积，也不是通过改进运输系统改善这些问题的“解决方案”。我们建造城市地区的方式是确定运输系统性能的基本性，更可持续的城市地区将需要对我们的建筑形式和运输系统进行协调，系统的重新设计。 对这种基本运输的认识 - 土地利用互动直接意味着需要捕获两种系统之间的双向交互的全面，综合的运输和土地使用模型，从而可以系统地探索运输和土地利用政策的城市地区的全部影响。综合城市模式有超过80％的加拿大人居住在城市地区，提供了潜力，可以提供强大的，可靠的政策影响森林，以支持有关运输和土地使用投资和政策的改进的，基于证据的决策。鉴于仅在未来几十年中，仅在这个国家单独使用的运输系统将花费数十亿美元，以及我们城市面临的严重挑战在面对持续增长的情况下，为我们的人口保持高质量的家园，这种改进的决策支持工具可以在为我们的大都市地区寻找未来的成本效益，可持续发展的道路上发挥关键作用。 综合土地利用，运输，环境（ILUTE）模型系统是一个基于最先进的代理，集成的微模拟模型的城市空间社会经济过程（人口统计学，住房市场，旅行等）。研究团队以前已经开发了操作原型。拟议研究的主要目的是将Ilute作为城市系统建模和政策分析的全面运营工具完成。 除了开发和部署此“ Ilute版本1”外，该研究项目的第二，长期目标是开始设计“ Ilute 2.0”的设计，该设计基于强大，一致的理论框架以及新的，新的，新兴的计算能力，数据集和建模方法。这项“ 2.0”设计工作将与“ 1.0”实现并行进行。它不会在该项目的生命周期内导致操作“ 2.0”系统，但它将为朝这个方向朝着未来的工作奠定基础。