Serial Killers to Mosquitos: The Spatial Targeting of Larval habitats in rural Uganda using geographic Profiling

蚊子的连环杀手：利用地理剖析对乌干达农村幼虫栖息地进行空间定位

基本信息

批准号：
10060724
负责人：
Ross Mathew Boyce
金额：
$ 18.88万
依托单位：
UNIV OF NORTH CAROLINA CHAPEL HILL
依托单位国家：
美国
项目类别：
财政年份：
2018
资助国家：
美国
起止时间：
2018-12-01 至 2023-11-30
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/10060724
关键词：
15 year old Adopted Adult Africa South of the Sahara Algorithms Animals Anopheles Genus Applications Grants Area Award Behavior Biological Breeding Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (U.S.)Child Clinical Clinical Data Complementarity Determining Regions County Crime Criminology Cross-Sectional Studies Culicidae Data Data Set Detection Employment Entomology Environment Epidemiology Exclusion Genotype Geographic Factor Geography Goals Habitats High-Throughput Nucleotide Sequencing Household Hygiene Individual Infection Information Sciences Insecticide Resistance Insecticides International Interruption Intervention Knowledge Larva Light Link Location London Malaria Maps Measures Mentors Mentorship Methodology Methods Modeling Modification Molecular Molecular Epidemiology North Carolina Outcome Parasitemia Patient Self-Report Plasmodium falciparum Population Positioning Attribute Probability Public Health Recording of previous events Research Research Personnel Residual state Resources Rural Sampling Schools Single Nucleotide Polymorphism Site Source Spatial Distribution Structure Surveys Testing Training Travel Tropical Medicine Uganda Universal Coverage Universities Vectorial capacity analytical tool base burden of illness career cost effective deep sequencing density effectiveness evaluation efficacy evaluation feeding improved indexing innovation malaria transmission novel offender operation prevent programs prospective residence risk stratification spatial epidemiology success tool transmission process vector vector control

项目摘要

PROJECT SUMMARY/ABSTRACT The widespread deployment of vector control measures, such as long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLIN), has resulted in significant declines in the global burden of malaria. Yet, these strategies alone are insufficient to interrupt transmission and sustain gains. Thus, innovations in vector control are urgently needed. Larval source management (LSM) is the modification of potential breeding habitats to prevent immature mosquitos from developing into adults, often through the application of larvicides. LSM is, however, resource intensive and thereby only recommended in select environments. New methods of efficiently locating and targeting Anopheles breeding sites must be developed to make LSM feasible in a wider variety of settings. Geographic profiling (GP) was originally developed as an analytical tool in criminology, using the locations of linked crimes to narrow the search area for likely suspects. GP has been successfully adopted to a number of biological problems, but in the case of malaria, it has only been applied to a single retrospective data set. Nevertheless, the model was able to efficiently identify mosquito breeding sites based on the location of clinical cases. My long-term career goal is to become an independent investigator with expertise in applied epidemiology and spatial analysis in order to advance our understanding of the geographic factors that influence malaria transmission and target interventions in the most effective manner. However, to achieve my career goals and scientific objectives, I need additional mentorship and training in: (i) geographic information science (GISc), (ii) entomological surveillance, and (iii) molecular epidemiology, all specifically in the context of malaria control. I will draw upon this training and leverage the resources of my mentors to achieve my scientific objective, which is to evaluate the effectiveness of a Bayesian GP model to identify Anopheles breeding sites in a low transmission, highland area of Western Uganda. My central hypothesis is that GP will facilitate the identification of Anopheles breeding sites without the need for large scale field operations. I will test this hypothesis by pursuing three specific research aims: (1) establish the accuracy and efficiency of GP to identify Anopheles breeding sites in comparison to field-based larval surveillance; (2) demonstrate the benefit of adding the spatial distribution of adult mosquito densities to the GP model; and (3) evaluate the effect of using a novel, high-throughput sequencing method to exclude imported malaria cases to improve the accuracy of the GP model. I am well positioned to achieve these aims given the vast institutional resources available to me through the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, along with an internationally-renowned team of mentors and advisors, including Dr. Jonathan Juliano, Dr. Sarah Staedke, and Dr. Steven Le Comber, who pioneered the use of GP to epidemiological problems. The proposed research is innovative and significant, as the results will represent the first prospective use of GP to identify mosquito breeding sites, and could make LSM more cost-effective in sub-Saharan Africa.

项目概要/摘要广泛部署病媒控制措施，例如长效杀虫蚊帐 (LLIN)，导致全球疟疾负担显着下降。然而，仅靠这些策略还不足以中断传输并维持增益。因此，迫切需要病媒控制方面的创新。幼虫来源管理（LSM）是改变潜在的繁殖栖息地，以防止未成熟的蚊子通常通过使用杀幼虫剂发育成成虫。然而，LSM 是资源密集型的，因此仅建议在选定的环境中使用。高效定位和瞄准的新方法必须开发按蚊繁殖地，使 LSM 在更广泛的环境中可行。地理侧写 (GP) 最初是作为犯罪学的一种分析工具而开发的，使用相关犯罪的地点缩小可能嫌疑人的搜索范围。 GP已成功应用于多项生物问题，但就疟疾而言，它仅适用于单个回顾性数据集。尽管如此，该模型能够根据临床病例的位置有效识别蚊子的繁殖地点。我的长期职业目标是成为一名具有应用流行病学专业知识的独立调查员空间分析以增进我们对影响疟疾的地理因素的理解以最有效的方式进行传播和目标干预。然而，为了实现我的职业目标和科学目标，我需要以下方面的额外指导和培训：(i) 地理信息科学 (GISc)，(ii) 昆虫学监测，以及 (iii) 分子流行病学，所有这些都特别是在疟疾控制的背景下进行的。我我将利用这次培训并利用导师的资源来实现我的科学目标旨在评估贝叶斯 GP 模型在低海拔地区识别按蚊繁殖地的有效性传输，乌干达西部高原地区。我的中心假设是 GP 将促进无需大规模现场作业即可识别按蚊繁殖地。我会测试这个假设通过追求三个具体的研究目标：（1）建立 GP 识别的准确性和效率按蚊繁殖地与田间幼虫监测的比较； (2) 展示好处在GP模型中添加成蚊密度的空间分布； (3) 评估使用效果一种排除输入性疟疾病例的新型高通量测序方法，以提高检测的准确性 GP模型。鉴于我拥有大量可用的机构资源，我完全有能力实现这些目标通过北卡罗来纳大学教堂山分校和伦敦卫生与热带学院医学，以及国际知名的导师和顾问团队，包括乔纳森博士 Juliano、Sarah Staedke 博士和 Steven Le Comber 博士率先将 GP 用于流行病学研究问题。拟议的研究具有创新性和意义，因为其结果将代表第一个前瞻性研究利用 GP 来确定蚊子繁殖地，可以使 LSM 在撒哈拉以南非洲更具成本效益。