Tracking the opioid epidemic with social media: an early warning system

利用社交媒体追踪阿片类药物的流行：预警系统

• 批准号: 10588908
• 负责人: RUSS BIAGIO ALTMAN
• 金额: $ 43.29万
• 依托单位: STANFORD UNIVERSITY
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2022-09-30 至 2024-09-29
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/10588908
• 关键词: Alcohols; American; Area; Benzodiazepines; Censuses; Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (U.S.); Cessation of life; Clinical Laboratory Information Systems; Complex; County; Dangerousness; Data; Data Aggregation; Data Science; Data Sources; Death Rate; Detection; Dimensions; Disease Outbreaks; Drug Modelings; Ecosystem; Epidemic; Feeds; Fentanyl; Forensic Medicine; Goals; Grant; Health; Health Services Accessibility; Health Status; Heart Diseases; Information Centers; Infrastructure; Measures; Medicine; Mental Depression; Methamphetamine; Modeling; Monitor; Morbidity - disease rate; Naloxone; Opioid; Overdose; Pharmaceutical Preparations; Policy Maker; Polypharmacy; Population; Positioning Attribute; Proxy; Psychiatry; Psychology; Public Health; Published Comment; Reporting; Resolution; Resources; Risk; Risk Factors; Signal Transduction; Source; Speed; Substance Use Disorder; System; Time; Twitter; United States; Vital Statistics; Work; cohort; comorbidity; digital; epidemiologic data; improved; insight; metropolitan; mortality; opioid epidemic; opioid mortality; opioid use; pandemic disease; population health; response; social; social media; stem; success; synthetic opioid; temporal measurement; tool; trend

Project Summary The opioid epidemic has continued to take a high death toll within the US, even accelerating during the pandemic. Stemming and stopping the pandemic will require a multi-prong effort along many health, social, even cultural dimensions. One important goal is to improve our ability to monitor the epidemic–both the speed of detection of opioid-use hotspots and precise geo- localization. Social media data represents an intriguing opportunity as it provides direct-report posts from the population–which may be useful for detecting and localizing opioid activity. However there has not been a careful systematic assessment of the utility (and pitfalls) for broad use of social media. In this proposal, we outline a plan to combine Reddit and Twitter to assess the ability to track opioid-associated mortality. We will focus on extracting mentions of fentanyl in social media, as it is responsible for the majority of deaths. We will also focus on modifiers that may be predictive of deadly use, particularly the use of opioids alone or in groups, the functional availability of naloxone, and the use of comorbid drugs. We will explore the limits of utility of social media data by aggregating it at multiple geo-spatial scales: national, regional, state and county (or county-sets that aggregate sparsely populated counties). We will also explore the time scales at which we can see relevant signals: annual, semi-annual, quarterly and monthly. Thus, we have two aims: 1. To assess the ability of social media together to provide signals of opioid use (through mentions of fentanyl and related synthetic opioids) that are correlated with mortality or proxies of mortality at multiple geo-spatial and temporal resolutions. 2. To assess the utility of social media to provide information about group vs. solo use, functional availability of naloxone and polypharmacy to modify the strength or urgency of opioid- use signals. The goal of our work is to generate a comprehensive preliminary assessment of the utility of social media, as it exists in the real world and at multiple scales, as a component of the opioid use surveillance system. Direct reports from the population may provide a useful “early warning” system that when combined with other sources, will provide policy makers and public health officials with a powerful set of tools for monitoring this public health crisis.

项目概要 阿片类药物的流行在美国继续造成大量死亡，甚至加速 疫情期间，遏制疫情需要多管齐下。 在许多健康、社会甚至文化方面，一个重要的目标是提高我们的能力。 监测流行病——包括阿片类药物使用热点的检测速度和精确的地理位置 社交媒体数据代表了一个有趣的机会，因为它提供了直接报告。 来自人群的帖子——这可能有助于检测和定位阿片类药物活动。 然而，还没有对它的效用（和陷阱）进行仔细的系统评估。 在此提案中，我们概述了将 Reddit 和 Twitter 结合起来的计划。 评估追踪阿片类药物相关死亡率的能力。 社交媒体上的芬太尼，因为它造成了大多数死亡。我们还将重点关注。 可能预示致命使用的修饰语，特别是单独或集体使用阿片类药物， 我们将探讨纳洛酮的功能可用性以及合并症药物的使用。 通过在多个地理空间尺度上聚合社交媒体数据来利用社交媒体数据：国家、区域、 州和县（或聚集人口稀少的县的县集）。 探索我们可以看到相关信号的时间尺度：年度、半年度、季度 因此，我们有两个目标： 1. 评估社交媒体共同提供阿片类药物使用信号的能力（通过 提及芬太尼和相关合成阿片类药物），这些药物与死亡率或替代指标相关 多个地理空间和时间分辨率下的死亡率。 2. 评估社交媒体提供有关团体使用与单独使用信息的效用， 纳洛酮和复方药物的功能可用性可改变阿片类药物的强度或紧迫性 使用信号。 我们工作的目标是对以下方面的效用进行全面的初步评估： 社交媒体，因为它存在于现实世界和多个尺度，作为阿片类药物的组成部分 使用监测系统来自民众的直接报告可以提供有用的“早期预警”。 该系统与其他来源相结合，将为政策制定者和公共卫生提供 官员拥有一套强大的工具来监测这场公共卫生危机。