Tracking the opioid epidemic with social media: an early warning system

利用社交媒体追踪阿片类药物的流行：预警系统

• 批准号: 10588908
• 负责人: RUSS BIAGIO ALTMAN
• 金额: $ 43.29万
• 依托单位: STANFORD UNIVERSITY
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2022-09-30 至 2024-09-29
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/10588908
• 关键词: Alcohols; American; Area; Benzodiazepines; Censuses; Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (U.S.); Cessation of life; Clinical Laboratory Information Systems; Complex; County; Dangerousness; Data; Data Aggregation; Data Science; Data Sources; Death Rate; Detection; Dimensions; Disease Outbreaks; Drug Modelings; Ecosystem; Epidemic; Feeds; Fentanyl; Forensic Medicine; Goals; Grant; Health; Health Services Accessibility; Health Status; Heart Diseases; Information Centers; Infrastructure; Measures; Medicine; Mental Depression; Methamphetamine; Modeling; Monitor; Morbidity - disease rate; Naloxone; Opioid; Overdose; Pharmaceutical Preparations; Policy Maker; Polypharmacy; Population; Positioning Attribute; Proxy; Psychiatry; Psychology; Public Health; Published Comment; Reporting; Resolution; Resources; Risk; Risk Factors; Signal Transduction; Source; Speed; Substance Use Disorder; System; Time; Twitter; United States; Vital Statistics; Work; cohort; comorbidity; digital; epidemiologic data; improved; insight; metropolitan; mortality; opioid epidemic; opioid mortality; opioid use; pandemic disease; population health; response; social; social media; stem; success; synthetic opioid; temporal measurement; tool; trend

Project Summary The opioid epidemic has continued to take a high death toll within the US, even accelerating during the pandemic. Stemming and stopping the pandemic will require a multi-prong effort along many health, social, even cultural dimensions. One important goal is to improve our ability to monitor the epidemic–both the speed of detection of opioid-use hotspots and precise geo- localization. Social media data represents an intriguing opportunity as it provides direct-report posts from the population–which may be useful for detecting and localizing opioid activity. However there has not been a careful systematic assessment of the utility (and pitfalls) for broad use of social media. In this proposal, we outline a plan to combine Reddit and Twitter to assess the ability to track opioid-associated mortality. We will focus on extracting mentions of fentanyl in social media, as it is responsible for the majority of deaths. We will also focus on modifiers that may be predictive of deadly use, particularly the use of opioids alone or in groups, the functional availability of naloxone, and the use of comorbid drugs. We will explore the limits of utility of social media data by aggregating it at multiple geo-spatial scales: national, regional, state and county (or county-sets that aggregate sparsely populated counties). We will also explore the time scales at which we can see relevant signals: annual, semi-annual, quarterly and monthly. Thus, we have two aims: 1. To assess the ability of social media together to provide signals of opioid use (through mentions of fentanyl and related synthetic opioids) that are correlated with mortality or proxies of mortality at multiple geo-spatial and temporal resolutions. 2. To assess the utility of social media to provide information about group vs. solo use, functional availability of naloxone and polypharmacy to modify the strength or urgency of opioid- use signals. The goal of our work is to generate a comprehensive preliminary assessment of the utility of social media, as it exists in the real world and at multiple scales, as a component of the opioid use surveillance system. Direct reports from the population may provide a useful “early warning” system that when combined with other sources, will provide policy makers and public health officials with a powerful set of tools for monitoring this public health crisis.

项目摘要 阿片类药物的流行病继续在美国范围内造成高死亡人数，甚至加速 在大流行期间。阻止和停止大流行将需要多个努力 沿着许多健康，社会，甚至文化的层面。一个重要的目标是提高我们的能力 监测流行病 - 包括阿片类药物使用热点的检测速度和精确的地理位置 本土化。社交媒体数据代表了一个有趣的机会，因为它提供了直接报告 人口的职位 - 可能可用于检测和定位阿片类药物活动。 但是，尚未对实用程序（和陷阱）进行仔细的系统评估 社交媒体的广泛使用。在此提案中，我们概述了将Reddit和Twitter相结合的计划 评估跟踪阿片类药物相关死亡率的能力。我们将专注于提取 社交媒体中的芬太尼，因为它负责大多数死亡。我们还将专注于 可能可以预测致命使用的修饰符，尤其是单独或单独使用阿片类药物的修饰符， 纳洛酮的功能可用性以及合并药的使用。我们将探索极限 通过在多个地理空间范围内汇总社交媒体数据的实用性：国家，地区，区域， 州和县（或人口稀少的县的县级）。我们也会 探索我们可以看到相关信号的时间尺度：年度，半年度，季度 和每月。那我们有两个目标： 1。评估社交媒体共同提供阿片类药物使用信号的能力（通过 提及与死亡率或代理相关的芬太尼和相关的合成阿片类药物） 多个地理空间和临时分辨率的死亡率。 2。评估社交媒体的效用以提供有关组与独奏使用的信息， 纳洛酮和多药的功能可用性，以改变Ooid-的强度或紧迫性 使用信号。 我们工作的目的是对实用程序进行全面的初步评估 社交媒体，因为它存在于现实世界和多个量表中，作为Ooid的一个组成部分 使用监视系统。人口的直接报告可能会提供有用的“预警” 与其他来源结合使用的系统，将为政策制定者和公共卫生提供 官员使用强大的工具来监视这一公共卫生危机。