Improving the measurement of adolescent and adult mortality in low-income countries

改进低收入国家青少年和成人死亡率的测量

基本信息

批准号：
10245892
负责人：
Stephane Helleringer
金额：
$ 47.01万
依托单位：
NEW YORK UNIVERSITY
依托单位国家：
美国
项目类别：
财政年份：
2017
资助国家：
美国
起止时间：
2017-09-15 至 2023-07-31
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/10245892
关键词：
15 year old AIDS/HIV problem Adolescent Adopted Adult Affect Age Bangladesh Bayesian Method Bayesian Modeling Birth Calendar Cause of Death Cessation of life Child Mortality Country Cues Data Data Analyses Data Collection Data Set Data Sources Date of birth Demographic and Health Surveys Event Fertility Future Goals Government Guinea-Bissau Health Household Institution International Intervention Interview Investments Malawi Maternal Mortality Measurement Measures Modeling Pilot Projects Population Pregnancy Questionnaires Randomized Recording of previous events Reporting Respondent Risk Sample Size Sampling Selection Bias Sensitivity and Specificity Series Siblings Site Statistical Models Suicide Surveys Sustainable Development System Techniques Testing Time Traffic accidents Uganda Uncertainty United Nations Visit Work age group arm base burden of illness data modeling data quality effectiveness evaluation flexibility global health improved innovation low and middle-income countries low income country mortality operation premature prevent primary outcome programs prospective secondary outcome simulation tool trend validation studies

项目摘要

With child mortality rapidly declining, an increasing proportion of all deaths in low and middle-income countries (LMICs) will occur at adolescent and adult ages in the next decades. The forthcoming Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) set out by the United Nations reflect this shift: over the next 15 years (2015-2030), several SDG targets will focus on reducing deaths from causes that affect primarily those age groups (e.g., maternal mortality, road traffic accidents, suicides). Investments in adolescent and adult health from US federal institutions, international organizations and governments of LMICs are thus expected to increase significantly. The mortality impact of such investments may however remain unknown because few LMICs have vital registration systems that allow measuring mortality precisely. Despite current efforts to improve such systems, household-based surveys (e.g., the Demographic and Health Surveys, DHS) will remain the primary data source on adolescent an adult mortality in LMICs. These surveys entail asking a random sample of respondents to report their siblings' survival history (SSH), i.e., whether each of their siblings 1) is alive, 2) how old s/he is, and 3) if deceased, how old s/he was at the time of death and the time since death. SSH permit directly estimating mortality rates at ages 15 and older, and also include basic assessments of the causes of siblings' deaths. They are however still affected by pervasive reporting errors. For example, respondents may omit some deaths, whereas other deaths may be added, or displaced in time. The net effects of these reporting errors on mortality indicators are large and hard to predict, but existing analytical corrections are based on very limited validation studies and do not capture this complexity. They risk accentuating bias and/or misrepresenting uncertainty in mortality estimates. In this project, we propose to improve the accuracy of survey-based estimates of adolescent and adult mortality through a) innovative data collection techniques (e.g., event history calendars, recall cues) and b) integrated Bayesian methods that account for sampling and non-sampling errors. Results from this study will help develop and target adolescent and adult health interventions in low and middle-income countries, and evaluate the effectiveness of global health initiatives.

随着儿童死亡率迅速下降，低收入和中等收入国家的所有死亡人数越来越多（LMIC）将在接下来的几十年中发生在青少年和成人年龄。即将到来的可持续发展联合国制定的发展目标（SDG）反映了这一转变：在未来15年（2015-2030）中，几个可持续发展目标目标将集中于减少主要影响这些年龄段的原因（例如，孕产妇死亡率，道路交通事故，自杀）。美国联邦对青少年和成人健康的投资因此，LMIC的机构，国际组织和政府有望大大增加。但是，这种投资的死亡率影响可能仍然未知，因为很少有LMIC至关重要允许精确衡量死亡率的注册系统。尽管目前正在改善此类系统，但基于家庭的调查（例如，人口统计和健康调查，DHS）将仍然是主要数据青少年的成人死亡率来源。这些调查需要问一个随机的样本受访者报告他们的兄弟姐妹的生存历史（SSH），即，他们的每个兄弟姐妹中的每个兄弟姐妹是否还活着，2）老年人和3）如果死亡，他/他在死亡和死亡之时的年龄。 SSH许可证直接估计15岁及以上的死亡率，还包括对的基本评估兄弟姐妹的死亡。但是，它们仍然受到普遍报告错误的影响。例如，受访者可以省略了一些死亡，而其他死亡可能会及时增加或流离失所。这些报告的净影响死亡率指标的错误很大且难以预测，但是现有的分析校正是基于非常有限的验证研究，不会捕获这种复杂性。他们有强调偏见和/或死亡率估计的不确定性虚假陈述。在这个项目中，我们建议提高通过a）创新数据收集技术对青少年和成人死亡率的基于调查的估计值（例如，事件历史日历，召回提示）和b）综合贝叶斯方法，以解释采样和非采样错误。这项研究的结果将有助于发展和针对青少年和成人健康低收入和中等收入国家的干预措施，并评估全球健康计划的有效性。

项目成果

期刊论文数量（6）

专著数量（0）

科研奖励数量（0）

会议论文数量（0）

专利数量（0）

Adult death registration in Matlab, rural Bangladesh: completeness, correlates, and obstacles.

DOI：
10.1186/s41118-021-00125-7
发表时间：
2021
期刊：
Genus
影响因子：
0
作者：
Haider MM;Alam N;Ibn Bashar M;Helleringer S
通讯作者：
Helleringer S

Comparing Approaches to Collecting Self-Reported Data on HIV Status in Population-Based Surveys.

比较基于人口的调查中收集自我报告的艾滋病毒状况数据的方法。

DOI：
10.1097/qai.0000000000002441
发表时间：
2020
期刊：
Journal of acquired immune deficiency syndromes (1999)
影响因子：
0
作者：
Brumfield,Sarah;Dube,Albert;Reniers,Georges;Helleringer,Stephane
通讯作者：
Helleringer,Stephane

Commentary: Measuring excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic: progress and persistent challenges.

DOI：
10.1093/ije/dyab260
发表时间：
2022-02-18
期刊：
International journal of epidemiology
影响因子：
7.7
作者：
Helleringer S;Queiroz BL
通讯作者：
Queiroz BL

Errors in reported ages and dates in surveys of adult mortality: A record linkage study in Niakhar (Senegal).

DOI：
10.1080/00324728.2020.1854332
发表时间：
2021-07
期刊：
Population studies
影响因子：
0
作者：
Masquelier B;Kanyangarara M;Pison G;Kanté AM;Ndiaye CT;Douillot L;Duthé G;Sokhna C;Delaunay V;Helleringer S
通讯作者：
Helleringer S

Collecting mortality data via mobile phone surveys: A non-inferiority randomized trial in Malawi.