Uncovering the Mechanisms Driving Seasonal Polio Incidence: A Modeling Approach Towards Endgame Strategies

揭示季节性脊髓灰质炎发病率的机制：终局策略的建模方法

• 批准号: 9912092
• 负责人: Kevin Michael Bakker
• 金额: $ 2.37万
• 依托单位: UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN AT ANN ARBOR
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2018
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2018-05-01 至 2020-08-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/9912092
• 关键词: Address; Afghanistan; Africa; African; Americas; Asia; Automobile Driving; Award; Big Data; Blood Circulation; Clinical; Communicable Diseases; Country; Data; Data Set; Demographic Factors; Demography; Diagnosis; Disease Outbreaks; Ebola; Effectiveness; Environmental Risk Factor; Epidemiologist; Epidemiology; Europe; European; Far East; Fellowship; Geography; HIV; Heterogeneity; Human poliovirus; Humidity; Immunization; Immunize; Incidence; Individual; Infection; Influenza; Knowledge; Link; Location; Mathematics; Methods; Middle East; Modeling; Modernization; Monitor; Nigeria; Oral Poliovirus Vaccine; Pakistan; Pattern; Play; Poliomyelitis; Poliovirus Vaccines; Positioning Attribute; Precipitation; Reporting; Role; Science; Sewage; South America; South American; Statistical Data Interpretation; Techniques; Temperature; Testing; Time; Training; Uncertainty; United States; Vaccinated; Vaccination; Vaccines; Variant; Work; career; improved; infectious disease model; predictive modeling; social; social factors; transmission process

Abstract Wild poliovirus (WPV), which is known to occur seasonally, is on the path towards eradication but continues to circulate in specific regions of the world. The Oral Polio Vaccine (OPV) can indirectly immunize unvaccinated individuals through the seasonal shedding of the vaccine. The seasonal timing of WPV transmission and OPV shedding occur synchronously. Using historical global datasets of reported WPV cases, and state-of-the-art modeling techniques, this work will examine three open questions regarding polio epidemiology: (I) does spatial variation exist in the seasonal timing of WPV outbreaks?, (II) what mechanism(s) are associated with this seasonality?, and (III) how can we improve the global monitoring of polio and expedite final eradication? I take advantage of a recently digitized, spatially resolved, historical dataset of reported WPV infections spanning the 20th century in the United States to examine these questions. I will also include 20th century WPV case data from various African, South American, Middle Eastern, and European countries once the U.S. models are parameterized. The results of this work will diagnose which environmental, demographic, or social factors are most strongly tied to seasonal WPV outbreaks. Understanding when and where a WPV outbreak is most likely to occur and when OPV shedding is at its maximum will allow immunization campaigns to optimize OPV coverage at the local level, and identify the optimal time of year to increase monitoring efforts for WPV. Following WPV eradication, this work can be used towards timing mop-up immunization campaigns, and assist in the monitoring efforts for vaccine-derived polio (cVDPV) strains.

抽象的 已知季节性发生的野生脊髓灰质炎病毒 (WPV) 正在走向根除，但 继续在世界特定地区传播。口服脊髓灰质炎疫苗（OPV）可以间接免疫 未接种疫苗的个体通过季节性接种疫苗。 WPV 的季节性发生时间 传输和 OPV 脱落同时发生。使用报告的 WPV 病例的历史全球数据集， 和最先进的建模技术，这项工作将研究有关脊髓灰质炎的三个开放性问题 流行病学：(I) WPV 爆发的季节性时间是否存在空间变异？(II) 机制是什么 与这种季节性有关吗？以及（III）我们如何改进对脊髓灰质炎的全球监测并加快 最终消灭？我利用最近数字化的、空间解析的、报告的 WPV 历史数据集 跨越 20 世纪美国的感染情况来检验这些问题。我也将包括20号 来自非洲、南美、中东和欧洲各国的世纪 WPV 病例数据一次 美国模型已参数化。这项工作的结果将诊断哪些环境、人口、 或社会因素与季节性 WPV 爆发关系最为密切。了解 WPV 何时何地发生 爆发最有可能发生，当 OPV 排泄量达到最大时，就可以开展免疫接种活动 优化地方一级的 OPV 覆盖范围，并确定一年中加强监测工作的最佳时间 对于 WPV。消灭 WPV 后，这项工作可用于安排扫尾免疫活动的时间， 并协助疫苗衍生脊髓灰质炎 (cVDPV) 毒株的监测工作。