Zika and Dengue Co-circulation Under Environmental Change and Urbanization

环境变化和城市化背景下的寨卡和登革热共同循环

• 批准号: 9361864
• 负责人: Josefina Coloma
• 金额: $ 71.36万
• 依托单位: UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN AT ANN ARBOR
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2017
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2017-08-02 至 2021-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/9361864
• 关键词: Accounting; Address; Aedes; Affect; Area; Blood Circulation; Characteristics; Cities; Communities; Complex; Country; Culicidae; Data; Dengue; Dengue Virus; Disease; Ecuador; Effectiveness; Effectiveness of Interventions; Environment; Epidemic; Epidemiology; Flavivirus; Future; Human; Immunity; Incidence; Indigenous; Infection; Intervention; Latin America; Longitudinal Studies; Measures; Microcephaly; Modeling; Movement; Pathway interactions; Pattern; Population; Population Density; Population Heterogeneity; Process; Province; Recurrence; Research Design; Research Infrastructure; Risk; Risk Estimate; Rural; Sexual Transmission; Social Environment; Social Network; Structure; Time; Travel; Urbanization; Virus; Zika Virus; burden of illness; clinical epidemiology; cross reactivity; density; design; disease transmission; environmental change; indexing; insight; migration; pathogen; public health intervention; rural area; social; spatiotemporal; tool; transmission process; trend; urban area; vector; vector control; vector mosquito; viral transmission

Abstract: The recent emergence of Zika in Latin America has caused over 1.5 million cases in 70 countries, with some 1,939 related cases of microcephaly since 2013. There is increasing evidence that Zika virus (ZIKV) and Dengue virus (DENV), both flaviviruses with high levels of cross-reactivity, have interdependent incidence trends, possibly due to host immunity and/or competition between the two viruses for mosquito infection. The effectiveness of any intervention approach will depend on the epidemiology of these co-circulating flaviviruses. We propose to examine the spatiotemporal epidemiological relationships of these viruses in a previously remote region in Esmeraldas province of northern coastal Ecuador, where the construction of a new road has created a gradient of urbanicity. This region exemplifies environmental, social, and demographic changes taking place worldwide. Our project team has 12 years of data on environmental change and infectious disease transmission in this region which we will build on to help address our study questions. Our overall objective is to understand the interplay between ZIKV and DENV transmission and how this interplay may change along the urbanicity spectrum. To do this we propose to characterize the epidemiology of both ZIKV and DENV simultaneously and to create a risk model that will inform interventions accounting for pathogen interaction and the level of urbanicity. DENV has one main vectorborne transmission pathway. ZIKV, in contrast, has multiple transmission pathways, e.g., mosquito and sexual transmission, and multiple mosquito species, therefore the relevant causal assemblages in more rural and more urban environments need to be carefully defined and their significance carefully assessed. Our overall question is this: what are the characteristics and mechanisms behind the co-circulation of ZIKV and DENV, and what key factors (e.g., human population density and diversity, social network structure, movement and migration patterns, infrastructure, vector populations, shifting economies) modify this interdependency? We propose a longitudinal study design at the village level that will allow us to estimate dengue and zika incidence over time.

摘要：最近在拉丁美洲出现的寨卡病毒已导致超过 150 万例病例。 自 2013 年以来，70 个国家约有 1,939 例小头畸形相关病例。 有证据表明，寨卡病毒 (ZIKV) 和登革热病毒 (DENV) 均含有高水平的黄病毒 交叉反应性，具有相互依赖的发病趋势，可能是由于宿主免疫和/或 两种病毒在蚊子感染方面的竞争。任何的有效性 干预方法将取决于这些共同循环的黄病毒的流行病学。我们 提议研究这些病毒的时空流行病学关系 厄瓜多尔北部沿海埃斯梅拉达斯省以前的偏远地区 一条新道路的建设创造了城市化的梯度。该地区举例说明 全球范围内正在发生环境、社会和人口变化。我们的项目团队有 该地区12年环境变化和传染病传播数据 我们将以此为基础来帮助解决我们的研究问题。我们的总体目标是 了解 ZIKV 和 DENV 传播之间的相互作用以及这种相互作用如何产生 沿着城市化范围发生变化。为此，我们建议描述流行病学特征 同时研究 ZIKV 和 DENV，并创建一个为干预措施提供信息的风险模型 考虑病原体相互作用和城市化水平。 DENV 有一个主要 媒介传播途径。相比之下，ZIKV 有多种传播途径，例如 蚊子和性传播，以及多种蚊子种类，因此相关的因果关系 需要仔细定义更多农村和更多城市环境中的组合及其 仔细评估重要性。我们的总体问题是：有什么特点和 ZIKV 和 DENV 共同传播背后的机制，以及哪些关键因素（例如人类 人口密度和多样性、社会网络结构、流动和迁徙模式， 基础设施、病媒种群、经济转型）会改变这种相互依赖性吗？我们 提出村庄一级的纵向研究设计，使我们能够估计登革热和 随着时间的推移，寨卡病毒的发病率不断上升。