Simulation Modeling of Public Health Interventions on Dengue Vector Abundance: Cu

对登革热媒介丰度的公共卫生干预措施的模拟建模：Cu

• 批准号: 8796149
• 负责人: Heidi E Brown
• 金额: $ 11.55万
• 依托单位: UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2014
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2014-02-01 至 2019-01-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/8796149
• 关键词: Aedes; Arizona; Arthropods; Basic Science; Blood; Breeding; Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (U.S.); Climate; Code; Communities; Complex; Controlled Environment; Culicidae; Data; Dengue; Destinations; Development; Disease; Ecosystem; Effectiveness; Entomology; Environment; Epidemiology; Equation; Excision; Exposure to; Female; Funding; Glean; Goals; Habitats; Health; Health Personnel; Health Promotion; Home environment; Household; Human; Infection; Intervention; K-Series Research Career Programs; Life Tables; Location; Medical; Mentors; Modeling; Movement; Oviposition; Patient currently pregnant; Population; Population Dynamics; Prevention; Public Health; Publications; Publishing; Puerto Rico; Recording of previous events; Research; Research Personnel; Risk; Scientist; Series; Serologic tests; Site; Source; Study models; System; Temperature; Testing; Training; United States; United States National Institutes of Health; Universities; Vaccines; Vector-transmitted infectious disease; Virus; Virus Diseases; Work; Yellow Fever; base; career; density; design; disorder prevention; egg; epidemiological model; experience; falls; feeding; fighting; health application; human data; insight; interdisciplinary approach; mathematical model; models and simulation; novel; outreach; prevent; public health intervention; real world application; research study; scale up; skills; tool; transmission process; vector; vector control

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): Dengue is the most important arthropod-borne viral disease with over 50 million human cases annually. No vaccine or specific medical treatment is available. Limiting exposure to infected mosquitoes is the only public health strategy to reduce dengue. A novel exposure reduction strategy is being tested by the CDC: a trap that attracts gravid females but prevents escape after egg laying. Since only those which imbibe an infectious blood meal are infectious to humans, this trap removes the most dangerous mosquitoes. The goal of this proposal is to develop a model to test how manipulating oviposition sites influences Aedes aegypti flight range and abundance. The proposed work has both an empirical experimentation facet - testing the effect of oviposition site density on vector flight range and a modeling component - develop a mathematical model to examine effect of epidemiologic interventions on dengue vector population dynamics. The data gleaned from the proposed flight range experiments provide insight into how dengue moves through a population and will be used in the modeling component. The experiments will be conducted at Biosphere-2, providing a unique outreach opportunity. Biosphere-2 was constructed as a microcosm for human space colonization but has been converted to ecosystem scale experimentation. Because of its history, it is a tourist destination and guests interact with the scientist they mee. Since human data are rarely collected at the right level (serology and exposure location), the modeling component involves simulating mosquito population dynamics. It is parameterized using Aedes aegypti life tables and optimized with the CDC's gravid trap data. When completed, it can be used to test the impact of source reduction versus gravid removal trapping and identify the number of gravid traps necessary to have a significant effect on dengue vectors. Dengue continues to be a significant disease internationally and increasingly in the United States. The findings from both the experimentation and modeling components connote important advancements in dengue prevention. For me, this mentored career development award provides additional training in modeling epidemiological data and experience in public health promotion strategies. Dengue, like many of the vector-borne diseases is a complex system. Progress toward its reduction requires the interdisciplinary approach and variety of expertise as described in this proposal. RELEVANCE: Two and a half billion people around the world are at risk from the mosquito-borne viral disease, dengue. Reducing risk by eliminating the mosquitoes that carry the virus is the only way to prevent disease. I propose to model a novel intervention strategy being tested by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Puerto Rico. By modeling this public health intervention its effectiveness can be model compared to other strategies, in other locations, and under alternative climate scenarios.

描述（由申请人提供）：登革热是最重要的节肢动物传播的病毒性疾病，每年有超过 5000 万人类病例。没有可用的疫苗或特定的医疗方法。限制接触受感染的蚊子是减少登革热的唯一公共卫生策略。疾病预防控制中心正在测试一种新颖的减少暴露策略：一种吸引怀孕雌性但防止产卵后逃跑的陷阱。由于只有那些吸收了传染性血粉的蚊子才对人类具有传染性，因此这个陷阱可以消灭最危险的蚊子。该提案的目标是开发一个模型来测试操纵产卵地点如何影响埃及伊蚊的飞行范围和数量。拟议的工作既有实证实验方面（测试产卵地点密度对媒介飞行范围的影响），也有建模部分（开发数学模型来检查流行病学干预措施对登革热媒介种群动态的影响）。从拟议的飞行范围实验中收集的数据可以深入了解登革热如何在人群中传播，并将用于建模组件。这些实验将在 Biosphere-2 进行，提供独特的推广机会。 Biosphere-2 是作为人类太空殖民的缩影而构建的，但现已转变为生态系统规模的实验。由于其历史，它是一个旅游目的地，客人可以与他们遇到的科学家互动。由于很少以正确的水平（血清学和暴露位置）收集人类数据，因此建模部分涉及模拟蚊子种群动态。它使用埃及伊蚊生命表进行参数化，并使用 CDC 的妊娠陷阱数据进行优化。完成后，它可用于测试源减少与妊娠去除捕获的影响，并确定对登革热媒介产生显着影响所需的妊娠捕获器的数量。登革热仍然是国际上的一种重要疾病，在美国也越来越严重。实验和建模部分的结果意味着登革热预防方面取得了重要进展。对我来说，这个指导性职业发展奖提供了流行病学数据建模和公共卫生促进策略经验方面的额外培训。与许多媒介传播的疾病一样，登革热是一个复杂的系统。减少其排放的进展需要本提案中所述的跨学科方法和各种专业知识。 相关性：全世界有二十五亿人面临蚊媒病毒性疾病登革热的威胁。通过消灭携带病毒的蚊子来降低风险是预防疾病的唯一方法。我建议建立波多黎各疾病控制和预防中心正在测试的新型干预策略模型。通过对这种公共卫生干预措施进行建模，可以将其有效性与其他地点、其他气候情景下的其他策略进行比较。