Comparative Modeling of Effective Policies for Colorectal Cancer Control

结直肠癌控制有效政策的比较模型

基本信息

批准号：
10668399
负责人：
KAREN M KUNTZ
金额：
$ 112.67万
依托单位：
SLOAN-KETTERING INST CAN RESEARCH
依托单位国家：
美国
项目类别：
财政年份：
2020
资助国家：
美国
起止时间：
2020-09-08 至 2025-08-31
项目状态：
未结题

项目摘要

ABSTRACT Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the second leading cause of cancer death in the United States. The long-term goal of our proposed project is to reduce the population burden of CRC by providing the information needed to address key policy questions across the CRC control continuum in an accessible and transparent manner. To accomplish this goal we will use our population-based microsimulation models to: 1) Evaluate the impact of screening as practiced in the US; 2) Inform the debate about the increase in CRC incidence before age 50; 3) Consider the effectiveness of precision of screening and surveillance; 4) Address other emerging issues and opportunities in CRC control; and 5) Use novel methods to improve model accessibility and transparency. Our team will fill critical gaps in knowledge, enabling decision makers to act. New evidence that we will incorporate in our models to better inform CRC control opportunities will be 1) updated information on screening patterns in the US (in collaboration with the Population-based Research Optimizing Screening through Personalized Regimen, or PROS PR), 2) data on the increased risk of CRC in persons under age 50 (in collaboration with Rebecca Siegal of the American Cancer Society, who did the seminal work in this area), and 3) state-of-the art colonoscopy screening data to incorporate alternative carcinogenesis pathways in the natural history models (in collaboration with the New Hampshire Colonoscopy Registry). We will synthesize and incorporate the growing body of evidence in the literature to assess the clinical utility of personalized screening and treatment, as well as the potential role for novel computer-aided detection and diagnosis modalities. We will expand our models to project clinical and resource-based outcomes for middle-income countries that are considering the implementation of a screening program. Lastly, there is a critical need to make our models assessible and transparent. To this end we will use high performance computing approaches to develop and apply deep-learning methods for model calibration and model emulation, which will aid in model sharing. The three participating modeling groups are well positioned to carry out this work, bringing a wealth of experience, expertise, and insight to issues related to microsimulation modeling of CRC, and have a proven track record of collaboration and disseminating our work to health policy decision makers.

抽象的结直肠癌（CRC）是美国癌症死亡的第二大原因。我们提议的项目的长期目标是通过以易于访问且透明的方式提供解决CRC控制连续性关键政策问题所需的信息来减轻CRC的人口负担。为了实现这一目标，我们将使用基于人群的微仿真模型来：1）评估美国实行的筛查的影响； 2）告知关于50岁以前CRC发病率增加的辩论； 3）考虑筛查和监视精度的有效性； 4）解决CRC控制中的其他新兴问题和机会； 5）使用新颖的方法来提高模型可访问性和透明度。我们的团队将填补知识的关键空白，使决策者能够采取行动。 New evidence that we will incorporate in our models to better inform CRC control opportunities will be 1) updated information on screening patterns in the US (in collaboration with the Population-based Research Optimizing Screening through Personalized Regimen, or PROS PR), 2) data on the increased risk of CRC in persons under age 50 (in collaboration with Rebecca Siegal of the American Cancer Society, who did the seminal work in this area), and 3) state-of-the art colonoscopy screening data to在自然史模型中（与新罕布什尔州的结肠镜检查注册中心合作）中纳入了替代的致癌途径。我们将在文献中综合并纳入越来越多的证据体，以评估个性化筛查和治疗的临床实用性，以及新型计算机辅助检测和诊断方式的潜在作用。我们将向考虑实施筛查计划的中等收入国家的中等收入国家的基于临床和资源的成果扩展模型。最后，迫切需要使我们的模型可评估和透明。为此，我们将使用高性能计算方法来开发和应用深度学习方法进行模型校准和模型仿真，这将有助于模型共享。这三个参与的建模小组可以很好地进行这项工作，从而为与CRC的显微仿真建模有关的问题带来丰富的经验，专业知识和洞察力，并具有可靠的协作记录并将我们的工作传播给健康政策决策者。

项目成果

期刊论文数量（9）

专著数量（0）

科研奖励数量（0）

会议论文数量（0）

专利数量（0）

Cost-effectiveness analysis of colorectal cancer screening in Shanghai, China: A modelling study.

DOI：
10.1016/j.pmedr.2022.101891
发表时间：
2022-10
期刊：
PREVENTIVE MEDICINE REPORTS
影响因子：
2.8
作者：
Wang, Jie;de Jonge, Lucie;Cenin, Dayna R.;Li, Pei;Tao, Sha;Yang, Chen;Yan, Bei;Lansdorp-Vogelaar, Iris
通讯作者：
Lansdorp-Vogelaar, Iris

Use of 2-Stage Modeling to Identify How Colorectal Cancer Risk Changes With Period and Cohort.

使用两阶段模型来确定结直肠癌风险如何随时期和队列变化。

DOI：
10.1093/aje/kwac177
发表时间：
2023
期刊：
American journal of epidemiology
影响因子：
5
作者：
DeYoreo,Maria;Rutter,CarolynM;Lee,SaritaD
通讯作者：
Lee,SaritaD

Methods for Communicating the Impact of Parameter Uncertainty in a Multiple-Strategies Cost-Effectiveness Comparison.

DOI：
10.1177/0272989x221100112
发表时间：
2022-10
期刊：
MEDICAL DECISION MAKING
影响因子：
3.6
作者：
Wolff, Henri B.;Qendri, Venetia;Kunst, Natalia;Alarid-Escudero, Fernando;Coupe, Veerle M. H.
通讯作者：
Coupe, Veerle M. H.

An Evolutionary Algorithm to Personalize Stool-Based Colorectal Cancer Screening.

DOI：
10.3389/fphys.2021.718276
发表时间：
2021
期刊：
Frontiers in physiology
影响因子：
4
作者：
van Duuren LA;Ozik J;Spliet R;Collier NT;Lansdorp-Vogelaar I;Meester RGS
通讯作者：
Meester RGS

Emulator-based Bayesian calibration of the CISNET colorectal cancer models.

基于模拟器的 CISNET 结直肠癌模型贝叶斯校准。

DOI：
10.1101/2023.02.27.23286525
发表时间：
2024
期刊：
medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences
影响因子：
0
作者：
Pineda-Antunez,Carlos;Seguin,Claudia;vanDuuren,LuukA;Knudsen,AmyB;Davidi,Barak;deLima,PedroNascimento;Rutter,Carolyn;Kuntz,KarenM;Lansdorp-Vogelaar,Iris;Collier,Nicholson;Ozik,Jonathan;Alarid-Escudero,Fernando
通讯作者：
Alarid-Escudero,Fernando