Preferences, expectations, and the prediction of health and economic behavior

偏好、期望以及健康和经济行为的预测

基本信息

批准号：
8728663
负责人：
HARSHA THIRUMURTHY
金额：
$ 12.77万
依托单位：
UNIV OF NORTH CAROLINA CHAPEL HILL
依托单位国家：
美国
项目类别：
财政年份：
2011
资助国家：
美国
起止时间：
2011-08-15 至 2016-07-31
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/8728663
关键词：
AIDS prevention AIDS/HIV problem Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome Address Adopted Affect Affective Africa Africa South of the Sahara Age Applied Psychology Area Attitude Behavior Behavioral Capital Characteristics Choice Behavior Cognitive Science Country Data Data Analyses Data Collection Decision Making Developing Countries Development Discipline Disease Econometric Models Economic Development Economics Elements Emotions Environment Epidemic Evaluation Family Family Life Surveys Feeling Fertilization Foundations Future Goals HIV HIV Infections Health Health Personnel Health Policy Health Technology Health behavior Health care facility High Prevalence Household Human Incentives Individual Intervention Investigation Investments K-Series Research Career Programs Kenya Lead Life Life Expectancy Life Experience Literature Male Circumcision Measurement Measures Medical Methods Mexican Mexico Modeling Paper Personal Computers Pilot Projects Play Policies Positioning Attribute Prevention approach Preventive Intervention Probability Procedures Property Psychology Psychometrics Public Health Randomized Randomized Controlled Trials Research Research Personnel Research Project Grants Respondent Risk Risk Behaviors Risk-Taking Role Science Scientist Shapes Survey Methodology Surveys Tablets Techniques Testing Thinking Time To specify Training Training Activity Training Programs Variant Visual Work base career development cost design discount economic behavior economic implication expectation experience insight literacy mathematical ability mortality new technology population based preference psychologic research study response scale up social socioeconomics stem theories tool trait

项目摘要

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): HIV/AIDS has led to substantial declines in life expectancy in many parts of Africa. This may be causing people to alter their forward-looking behaviors in ways that are deleterious to future development prospects. At the same time, there is an increasing emphasis on the scale-up of HIV prevention interventions such as male circumcision. Understanding people's behavioral responses to declining life expectancy and their decisions to take-up prevention interventions requires data on their risk preferences, inter-temporal preferences, and subjective life expectancy - all of which play a central role in models of individual decision-making. However, these attitudes are rarely measured in population-based socio-economic surveys in developing countries. The career development activities in this application will allow me to combine insights from economics and psychology and apply them in ways that provide a better understanding of individuals' health behaviors as well as their behavioral responses to reduced life expectancy. I will measure and validate individuals' preferences and expectations using state-of-the-art techniques and I will examine how people form, and revise, these attitudes. Specific aims include: (1) empirical examination and evaluation of survey- and experiment-based approaches to the elicitation of risk preferences, inter-temporal preferences, and survival expectations; (2) development of direct measures of these preferences and expectations for socio-economic surveys in Kenya; (3) an examination of the predictive power of these measures when studying the take-up of beneficial health interventions such as male circumcision; and (4) implementation of studies that will use data on survival expectations and establish their causal effect on individuals' investment behavior. The training component will enable me to (a) review methods and tools used to understand and measure preferences and expectations in psychology, and (b) gain practical experience in using data from Mexico on risk and inter-temporal preferences. The training program will put me in a position to become an independent scientist who integrates ideas from economics and psychology in order to arrive at a richer understanding of decision-making.

描述（由申请人提供）：艾滋病毒/艾滋病导致非洲许多地区的预期寿命大幅下降。这可能会导致人们改变他们的前瞻性行为，从而损害未来的发展前景。与此同时，人们越来越重视扩大男性包皮环切等艾滋病毒预防干预措施。要了解人们对预期寿命下降的行为反应以及他们采取预防干预措施的决定，需要有关他们的风险偏好、跨期偏好和主观预期寿命的数据——所有这些在个人决策模型中都发挥着核心作用。然而，这些态度很少在发展中国家基于人口的社会经济调查中得到衡量。此应用程序中的职业发展活动将使我能够结合经济学和心理学的见解，并以更好地了解个人的健康行为以及他们对预期寿命缩短的行为反应的方式应用它们。我将使用最先进的技术来衡量和验证个人的偏好和期望，并将研究人们如何形成和修正这些态度。具体目标包括：（1）对基于调查和实验的方法进行实证检验和评估，以得出风险偏好、跨期偏好和生存期望； (2) 制定肯尼亚社会经济调查的这些偏好和期望的直接衡量标准； (3) 在研究男性包皮环切等有益健康干预措施的实施情况时，检查这些措施的预测能力； (4) 开展研究，利用生存预期数据并确定其对个人投资行为的因果影响。培训部分将使我能够（a）回顾用于理解和衡量心理学偏好和期望的方法和工具，以及（b）获得使用墨西哥风险和跨期偏好数据的实践经验。培训计划将使我成为一名独立科学家，整合经济学和心理学的思想，以便对决策有更丰富的理解。