Probabilistic Population Projections for All Countries

所有国家的概率人口预测

• 批准号: 8219222
• 负责人: ADRIAN E RAFTERY
• 金额: $ 30.44万
• 依托单位: UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2012
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2012-03-01 至 2017-02-28
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/8219222
• 关键词: AIDS/HIV problem; Accounting; Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome; Adult; Age; Climate; Communicable Diseases; Computer software; Country; Data; Demographic Impact; Development; Disease; Epidemic; Federal Government; Female; Fertility; Fertility Rates; Force of Gravity; Future; Goals; Government; Grant; International; International Migrations; Joints; Life Expectancy; Methodology; Methods; Modeling; Outcome; Pattern; Policies; Policy Making; Population; Population Projection; Prevalence; Private Sector; Procedures; Process; Publishing; Recommendation; Research Personnel; Statistical Methods; System; UNICEF; Uncertainty; United Nations; Update; Work; World Health Organization; base; climate change; cost; male; migration; mortality; sex; sexually active

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): The United Nations publishes updated estimates and projections of the populations of all the world's countries, broken down by age and sex. These are widely used by international organizations, governments, the private sector and researchers, for example for climate modeling and for assessing progress towards the Millenium Development Goals. The UN's current projections are deterministic, but assessing uncertainty about population estimates and projections is important for policy-making and other purposes. We propose to develop a fully probabilistic population projection methodology. We will develop methods for probabilistic projection of fertility and mortality, taking account of within-country and between-country correlations. We will develop methods for probabilistic projection of international migration. We will develop methods for probabilistic population projections in countries with generalized sexually transmitted infectious disease epidemics, which require special methods because the demographic impact of such diseases is massive and different from most other diseases, being concentrated among the least vulnerable parts of the population, namely young sexually active adults. We will develop methods for reconstructing past populations with uncertainty from fragmentary data. We will produce publicly available software for implementing the new methods. PUBLIC HEALTH RELEVANCE: Every two years, the United Nations produces projections of the populations of all countries, which are widely used by international organizations, governments, the private sector and researchers. The UN's current projections are deterministic, but assessing uncertainty about future population is important for policy-making and other purposes. We propose to develop a fully probabilistic population methodology which will be applicable to all countries, and will also be useful for assessing global concerns, such as climate change and progress towards the Millenium Development Goals.

描述（由申请人提供）：联合国发布了全世界国家人口的最新估计和预测，并按年龄和性别分解。这些是由国际组织，政府，私营部门和研究人员广泛使用的，例如，用于气候建模以及评估千年发展目标的进步。联合国目前的预测是确定性的，但是评估人口估计和预测的不确定性对于政策制定和其他目的很重要。我们建议开发一种完全概率的人群投影方法。考虑到国内和国际之间的相关性，我们将开发用于生育和死亡率的概率预测的方法。我们将开发用于国际移民的概率预测的方法。我们将在具有广义性传播感染性疾病流行病的国家中开发用于概率人群预测的方法，这些方法需要特殊的方法，因为这种疾病的人口统计学影响与大多数其他疾病的人口影响很大，并且集中在最脆弱的部分人群中，即年轻的成年人。我们将开发用于重建碎片数据不确定性的过去人群的方法。我们将生产用于实施新方法的公开软件。 公共卫生相关性：每两年，联合国每两年就会产生所有国家人口的预测，这些国家被国际组织，政府，私营部门和研究人员广泛使用。联合国目前的预测是确定性的，但是评估未来人口的不确定性对于决策和其他目的很重要。我们建议开发一种完全适用于所有国家的概率种群方法，也将有助于评估全球关注点，例如气候变化和朝着千年发展目标的进步。