A spatially resolved ecosystem model for the assessment of fisheries

用于渔业评估的空间分辨生态系统模型

基本信息

批准号：
NE/F001924/1
负责人：
Douglas Speirs
金额：
$ 26.62万
依托单位：
University of Strathclyde
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2008
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2008 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FF001924%2F1
关键词：
spatially resolved ecosystem model assessment

项目摘要

We aim to construct a spatial multi-species ecosystem model focused on commercially exploited fish in the northern European shelf (47 to 62 degrees N, and -12 to 10 degrees E). Species or functional groups within the model will be placed within a hierarchy of biological detail. At the highest, or 'structured', level of detail the target species will be represented by interacting length-structured populations in which the processes governing individual growth, predation, reproduction, and mortality are fully specified. At an intermediate level will be 'unstructured' ecosystem elements, such as benthic invertebrates and zooplankton, that are represented dynamically but without life history detail. At the lowest level of detail we will have the 'drivers' of top predators (cetacean and seabird) and fishing mortality, which are not modelled but provide forcing functions to the rest of the ecosystem. The model will be run at various spatial scales, from a series of linked regional models through to medium-scale grid covering the entire domain. The physical environment will be obtained from an ocean circulation model, with temperatures used to drive temperature-dependent process such as growth rate, and flows determining the transport of plankton zooplankton and fish larvae. The model will be parameterised using fishing survey data, and estimates of zooplankton and benthic production, and estimates of consumption by top predators. Due to the potential for ecologically and commercially important impacts by top predators a joint proposal (for a tied studentship) will aim to produce improved spatial estimates for these drivers. Free parameters will be estimated by Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. We will draw on a range of computational innovations developed at Strathclyde University for dealing with explicitly spatial models of populations with life history structure and growth variability. We will use the Ecopath software as an aid to constructing regional budgets for mass transfer between the species in our system, and which can then be compared to those predicted by our model. Our modelling approach differs substantially from alternative ecosystem modelling methods, such as Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE), that are frequently advocated as the way forward for ecosystem-based management in fisheries. A key part of our proposal is therefore a comparative study involving EwE regional ecosystem models, with a view to identifying the strengths and weaknesses of alternative methodologies.

我们旨在构建一个空间多物种生态系统模型，该模型以北欧货架上的商业开发鱼类（47至62度N，以及-12至10度E）。模型中的物种或功能组将放置在生物细节的层次结构中。在最高或“结构化”的细节水平下，目标物种将通过相互作用的长度结构群体来表示，在这些长度结构群体中，在其中完全指定了个人生长，捕食，繁殖和死亡率的过程。在中间层面上将是“非结构化”的生态系统元素，例如底栖无脊椎动物和浮游动物，它们是动态表示但没有生命历史细节的。在最低的细节上，我们将拥有顶级捕食者（鲸类和海鸟）和捕鱼死亡率的“驱动力”，这些死亡率不是建模，而是为其余的生态系统提供强迫功能。该模型将以各种空间尺度运行，从一系列链接的区域模型到覆盖整个域的中尺度网格。物理环境将从海洋循环模型中获得，其温度用于驱动温度依赖性过程，例如生长速率，以及确定浮游生物浮游生物和鱼幼虫的运输的流动。该模型将使用捕鱼调查数据以及浮游生物和底栖生产的估计以及顶级捕食者的消费估计进行参数化。由于顶级掠食者在生态和商业上产生重要的影响，共同提案（对于绑定的学生身份）将旨在为这些驾驶员提供改进的空间估计。免费参数将通过马尔可夫链蒙特卡洛（MCMC）方法估算。我们将借鉴Strathclyde University开发的一系列计算创新，用于处理具有生活历史结构和增长可变性的显式空间模型。我们将使用Ecopath软件来帮助构建系统中该物种之间的质量转移的区域预算，然后可以将其与模型预测的区域进行比较。我们的建模方法与替代生态系统建模方法（例如具有EcoSIM（EWE））的替代生态系统建模方法有很大不同，这些方法经常被提倡是基于生态系统的渔业管理的前进之路。因此，我们建议的关键部分是一项涉及EWE区域生态系统模型的比较研究，以确定替代方法的优势和劣势。