Immigration, Emigration, and Age-by-Country Structure of Mexican Cohort Lifetimes

墨西哥人群一生的移民、出境和年龄结构

• 批准号: 7469946
• 负责人: MICHAEL S. RENDALL
• 金额: $ 18.08万
• 依托单位: RAND CORPORATION
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2007
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2007-08-01 至 2011-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/7469946
• 关键词: Address; Age; Aging; American; Censuses; Communities; Community Surveys; Compatible; Country; Data; Data Sources; Demographic Survey; Economics; Education; Emigrant; Emigration and Immigration; Emigrations; Employment; Equilibrium; Female; Gender; Health; Household; Immigrant; Immigration; Knowledge; Life Cycle Stages; Life Table Models; Mexican; Mexico; Modeling; Nature; Nomads; Numbers; Older Population; Pattern; Population; Population Process; Principal Investigator; Process; Rate; Research; Return Migrations; Sample Size; Sampling; Sex Education; Side; Staging; Statistical Methods; Stream; Structure; Surveys; Weight; Woman; age effect; aging population; base; cohort; improved; innovation; male; member; men; migration; population survey; programs; residence; sex

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): This research is in part motivated by the very large discrepancy between the assumptions of the demographic models addressing the question of the effect of immigration on population aging and the empirical evidence about the migration processes of the US's single largest immigrant- contributing country, Mexico. The nature of the demographic models is that they assume that immigrants settle in the receiving country. The available empirical evidence with regard to Mexico is that large numbers of immigrants do not settle in the US, and instead return to Mexico. This evidence, however, does not come from nationally representative data sources. The study aims first to improve understanding of the age and gender patterns of US-Mexico migration in both directions, and second to improve understanding of their consequences for Mexican-born immigrants' patterns of aging in the US versus in Mexico. The major methodological innovation of the study is its use of data sources from both the US and Mexico together to estimate both rates of immigration to the US and rates of return emigration to Mexico. These data sources are the 1990 and 2000 censuses and the large-scale household surveys conducted in both the US and Mexico from the 1990s through to the mid-2000s. With the migration rates estimated by combining these data sources as input parameters, a life table model is used to derive Mexican-born cohorts' ages of residence in the US and in Mexico over the lifetime. This directly addresses the question of to what extent Mexican immigrants are likely to age in the US versus in Mexico. The extent to which more recent migrant streams from Mexico are becoming increasingly balanced by gender, and consequently more likely to remain in the US into older ages, is evaluated by comparing the patterns of migration by age and gender in the late 1980s, late 1990s, and through to the mid-2000s. The selectivity of migrants by educational attainment is estimated in both immigrant and emigrant flows. The educational selectivity of Mexican-born immigrants who remain in the US into old age is then analyzed as a function of both selectivity in the process of immigration and selectivity in the process of return migration. The study is a first step towards developing a broader understanding of the impact of immigration on the age, sex, and socio-economic structure of the US population, and thus also on the US's ability to support an older population with greater health needs.

描述（由申请人提供）：这项研究部分是由人口统计学模型的假设之间的巨大差异所激发的，该假设解决了移民对人口衰老的影响的问题，以及有关美国单一最大移民的移民过程的经验证据。人口模型的性质是，他们假设移民定居在接收国。关于墨西哥的可用经验证据是，大量移民不会在美国定居，而是返回墨西哥。但是，这些证据并非来自国家代表性的数据源。该研究旨在提高对两个方向上美国 - 墨西迁移的年龄和性别模式的了解，其次是提高对它们对墨西哥出生的移民在美国与墨西哥衰老模式的影响的理解。该研究的主要方法论创新是它共同使用来自美国和墨西哥的数据来源，以估计向美国移民的率和返回墨西哥的返回率。这些数据来源是1990年和2000年的人口普查以及从1990年代到2000年代中期在美国和墨西哥进行的大规模家庭调查。通过将这些数据源与输入参数相结合来估计的迁移率，使用生命表模型来推导墨西哥出生的同龄人在美国和墨西哥的居住年龄。这直接解决了墨西哥移民在多大程度上可能在美国与墨西哥相比的问题。通过比较1980年代后期，1990年代后期，与2000年代中期，评估了从墨西哥最近的移民流变得越来越平衡，因此更有可能留在美国的年龄段的年龄更大。在移民和移民流中估计移民对移民的选择性。然后，在返回迁移过程中，在移民和选择性过程中，将留在美国的墨西哥出生的移民的教育选择性是根据选择性的函数分析的。这项研究是对移民对美国人口的年龄，性别和社会经济结构的影响的更广泛理解的第一步，从而对美国支持具有更大健康需求的老年人群的能力。