Containing Bioterroist and Emerging Infectious Diseases

遏制生物恐怖分子和新出现的传染病

• 批准号: 7688977
• 负责人: Ira M Longini
• 金额: $ 10.56万
• 依托单位: FRED HUTCHINSON CANCER RESEARCH CENTER
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2004
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2004-05-01 至 2009-04-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/7688977
• 关键词: Acute; American; Antiviral Agents; Bioterrorism; Communicable Diseases; Communities; Containment; Data; Disease Outbreaks; Effectiveness; Effectiveness of Interventions; Emerging Communicable Diseases; Epidemic; Generations; Hospitals; Household; Human; Immune response; Infection; Institution; Intervention; Intervention Studies; Listeria monocytogenes; Lymphocytic choriomeningitis virus; Medical Surveillance; Methods; Modeling; Mus; Neighborhoods; Nursery Schools; Pathogenesis; Population; Prophylactic treatment; Research; Resistance; Resource Allocation; Resources; Schools; Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome; Smallpox; Statistical Methods; Structure; Testing; Vaccination; Vertebrates; Workplace; antimicrobial; design; disease transmission; experience; field study; infectious disease model; mathematical model; model development; models and simulation; pandemic influenza; pathogen; pressure; response; simulation; transmission process

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): The overall objective of this research is to develop, validate, and implement mathematical models for the transmission and within-host dynamics of bioterrorism agents or naturally occurring infectious diseases. These models will be used to assess the effectiveness and efficacy of various interventions to aid the distribution and allocation of resources in response to such outbreaks. Specific aim 1 is to develop epidemic simulation models for the transmission of infectious diseases in question: a. to develop stochastic epidemic simulation models for a typical American community; b. to use the epidemic simulation models to evaluate the effectiveness of interventions involving surveillance and containment, vaccination, antimicrobials, closing of key institutions, and other control strategies; c. to develop stochastic optimization methods to find the best intervention strategy, constrained by the resources available; d. to adapt the epidemic simulation models for smallpox, pandemic influenza, SARS, and other possible bioterrorism agents or naturally occurring infectious diseases; e. to use the epidemic simulation models to determine the important parameters for infection transmission and to use this information to design field studies and intervention studies; f. to use and develop statistical methods to estimate the important parameters and variables from data. Specific aim 2 is to develop models of the within-host dynamics of pathogens which cause acute infections in vertebrates: a. to construct exploratory models for the interplay between the pathogen and host immune response; b. to refine, to develop further and to test these models of pathogenesis including the use of existing data on lymphocytic choriomeningitis virus (LCMV) and listeria monocytogenes (LM) infections of mice; c. to use the experience from the specific aim 2.b. to extend the models in the specific aim 2.a. to examine the more challenging acute infections of humans including bioterrorism agents or naturally occurring infectious diseases; d. to model development of resistance under selective pressure by antimicrobial and antiviral treatment and prophylaxis by antimicrobials or vaccination; e. to combine the stochastic epidemic simulation models with models for within-host generation of resistance to examine spread of resistance within the host population.

描述（由申请人提供）：本研究的总体目标是开发、验证和实施生物恐怖分子或自然发生的传染病的传播和宿主内动态的数学模型。 这些模型将用于评估各种干预措施的有效性和功效，以帮助分配和分配资源以应对此类疫情。 具体目标 1 是开发有关传染病传播的流行病模拟模型：为典型的美国社区开发随机流行病模拟模型； b.使用流行病模拟模型来评估涉及监测和遏制、疫苗接种、抗菌药物、关闭关键机构和其他控制策略等干预措施的有效性； c.开发随机优化方法，以在可用资源的限制下找到最佳干预策略； d.适应天花、大流行性流感、SARS和其他可能的生物恐怖分子或自然发生的传染病的流行病模拟模型； e.使用流行病模拟模型确定感染传播的重要参数，并利用这些信息设计现场研究和干预研究； f.使用和开发统计方法来估计数据中的重要参数和变量。 具体目标 2 是开发引起脊椎动物急性感染的病原体的宿主内动态模型：构建病原体与宿主免疫反应之间相互作用的探索性模型； b.完善、进一步开发和测试这些发病机制模型，包括使用小鼠淋巴细胞脉络丛脑膜炎病毒（LCMV）和单核细胞增生李斯特菌（LM）感染的现有数据； c.使用特定目标 2.b 中的经验。扩展特定目标 2.a 中的模型。检查更具挑战性的人类急性感染，包括生物恐怖主义制剂或自然发生的传染病； d.通过抗菌和抗病毒治疗以及抗菌药物或疫苗接种来模拟选择性压力下耐药性的发展； e.将随机流行病模拟模型与宿主内产生耐药性的模型相结合，以检查宿主群体内耐药性的传播。