Roybal Center for Health Policy Simulation

皇家卫生政策模拟中心

• 批准号: 6953107
• 负责人: DANA P GOLDMAN
• 金额: $ 33.31万
• 依托单位: RAND CORPORATION
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2004
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2004-09-30 至 2009-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/6953107
• 关键词: Medicare /Medicaid; aging; behavioral /social science research tag; biomedical facility; clinical research; computer simulation; decision making; diabetes mellitus; functional ability; geriatrics; health; health care policy; health economics; human old age (65+); human population study; longevity; model design /development; obesity; organized financing; outcomes research; patient care management; public health; smoking; sociology /anthropology; technology /technique

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): This Roybal Center for Health Policy Simulation will develop better models to understand the consequences of biomedical developments and social forces for health, health spending, and health care delivery. It will build on a large body of research at RAND, including a multi-year effort to identify and forecast the consequences of medical breakthroughs over the next 30 years. This project used panels of experts from around the country to identify key breakthroughs over the next 10 years would most affect future health and spending of the elderly. We then developed a micro-simulation model to simulate the key outcomes. The ultimate goal of the Center is to translate this existing work--as well as other, aging-related research at RAND--into policy tools that result in better health investments. The specific aims are: (1) Create a Center that researches new methods for forecasting disease, functional status, and health expenditures of older populations, and develops decision-making tools based on these methods; (2) Assess how new and existing medical interventions affect the health, functional status, and spending of older cohorts, and their implications for Medicare and Medicaid and society-at large; and (3) Assess how demographic and public health trends--such as trends in obesity, diabetes, and smoking--affect future outcomes and their implications for Medicare, Medicaid, and society-at large. The proposed Center will meet these goals by supporting a Management Core and Pilot Core to predict the consequences of new technologies and treatments for health care spending (both public and private), health status, and longevity. Each pilot project will meet one of four objectives: (1) Research the basic determinants of costs and health status among the elderly and near elderly; (2) Develop simulation models to predict costs, health, functional status, and longevity; (3) Apply these models to assess the value of interventions or treatments; and (4) Disseminate the tools to decision makers in industry and the government.

描述（由申请人提供）：皇家卫生政策模拟中心将开发更好的模型，以了解生物医学发展和社会力量对健康、医疗支出和医疗保健提供的影响。它将建立在兰德公司的大量研究基础上，包括多年来为识别和预测未来 30 年医学突破的后果所做的努力。该项目由来自全国各地的专家小组组成，以确定未来 10 年内最能影响老年人未来健康和支出的关键突破。然后，我们开发了一个微观模拟模型来模拟关键结果。该中心的最终目标是将兰德公司现有的工作以及其他与老龄化相关的研究转化为政策工具，从而带来更好的健康投资。具体目标是：（1）创建一个中心，研究预测老年人群疾病、功能状态和健康支出的新方法，并基于这些方法开发决策工具； (2) 评估新的和现有的医疗干预措施如何影响老年群体的健康、功能状态和支出，及其对医疗保险和医疗补助以及整个社会的影响； (3) 评估人口和公共卫生趋势（例如肥胖、糖尿病和吸烟趋势）如何影响未来结果及其对医疗保险、医疗补助和整个社会的影响。 拟议的中心将通过支持管理核心和试点核心来预测新技术和治疗对医疗保健支出（公共和私人）、健康状况和寿命的影响来实现这些目标。每个试点项目将实现四个目标之一：（1）研究老年人和近老年人的费用和健康状况的基本决定因素； (2) 开发模拟模型来预测成本、健康、功能状态和寿命； (3) 应用这些模型来评估干预或治疗的价值； (4) 向行业和政府决策者传播这些工具。