Atmospheric measurements and modelling to support the Montreal Protocol and international climate agreements

支持《蒙特利尔议定书》和国际气候协议的大气测量和建模

• 批准号: 2889393
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: University of Bristol
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Studentship
• 财政年份: 2023
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2023 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=studentship-2889393
• 关键词: Atmospheric; measurements; modelling; support; Montreal; Atmospheric; measurements; modelling; support; Montreal

In a series of four papers published in Nature between 2018 and 2021 [e.g., 1,2], our team used atmospheric data to present evidence of a major violation of the Montreal Protocol, the universally ratified treaty designed to protect the stratospheric ozone layer; emissions of the potent ozone depleting substance, CFC-11, had increased since 2012, despite the global ban in 2010. Intense media coverage followed, and enforcement activities were initiated in China, where a substantial fraction of the new emissions were found to originate. Subsequently, emissions dropped substantially, with a CO2-equivalent magnitude equal to that of the whole of London. Here, we will develop global and regional atmospheric modelling tools to provide an "early warning system" for the detection of similar anomalous trends in the emissions of a wide range of greenhouse gases and ozone depleting substances covered by the Montreal Protocol and other international climate treaties.The Atmospheric Chemistry Research Group (ACRG) is a key member of the international Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE). AGAGE measures over 50 greenhouse gases and ozone depleting substances covered by the Montreal and Kyoto Protocols. To infer emissions from the AGAGE data, models of atmospheric chemistry and transport are required. These inferred emissions are reported to the UK government, and are vital to international decision making on climate. In this project, you will:a) create new computationally efficient open-source modelling tools to infer global greenhouse gas emissions using observations from remote monitoring sites from AGAGE and other international networks, allowing us to understand how global emissions are changingb) devise an operational regional emissions estimation framework using the Met Office NAME model and Bayesian methods to "pinpoint" major sources near measurement stations. c) develop a cloud-based system for the efficient and open sharing of data, model output and code, thus ensuring transparent and rapid access to results by interested parties[1] Montzka, S. A. et al., Nature, 557(7705), 413-417, doi:10.1038/s41586-018-0106-2, 2018. [2] Rigby, M. et al., Nature, 569(7757), 546-550, doi:10.1038/s41586-019-1193-4, 2019.

在2018年至2021年之间在自然界发表的四篇论文中[例如1,2]，我们的团队使用大气数据来介绍对蒙特利尔方案的重大违反证据，这是旨在保护平流层臭氧层的普遍批准条约。尽管全球禁令在2010年进行了全球禁令，但有效的臭氧耗竭物质的排放量增加了2012年。随后进行了强烈的媒体报道，并在中国发起了执法活动，在中国，发现新排放量的很大一部分是起源的。随后，排放量大大下降，二氧化碳等效幅度等于整个伦敦的幅度。在这里，我们将开发全球和区域大气建模工具，以提供“预警系统”，以检测蒙特利尔协议和其他国际气候条约涵盖的广泛温室气体和臭氧耗尽的物质的排放中的类似异常趋势。 Agage测量超过50种温室气体和臭氧耗尽的物质，覆盖在蒙特利尔和京都方案中。为了从Agage数据中推断出排放，需要大气化学和运输模型。这些推断的排放量报告给英国政府，对国际气候决策至关重要。在该项目中，您将：a）创建新的计算有效的开源建模工具，以使用来自Agage和其他国际网络的远程监控站点的观察来推断全球温室气体排放，从而使我们能够使用Meter Office Name Models and Bayesian Models and Bayesian方法来理解全球排放量如何更换），以“近距离” points“ point Point” point tocter“ point toct”。 c）开发一个基于云的系统，用于有效和开放的数据，模型输出和代码，从而确保了有关方面的透明和快速访问结果[1] Montzka，S。A.等，Nature，557（7705），413-417，doi，doi：10.1038/s411586-0186-018-018-018-0106-2，2018，M。2. 2] 569（7757），546-550，doi：10.1038/s41586-019-1193-4，2019。