New model for describing and projecting adult mortality

描述和预测成人死亡率的新模型

• 批准号: 7069597
• 负责人: John Bongaarts
• 金额: $ 6.32万
• 依托单位: POPULATION COUNCIL
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2005
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2005-06-01 至 2007-04-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/7069597
• 关键词: Canada; Europe; Japan; United States; adult human (21+); age difference; behavioral /social science research tag; data collection methodology /evaluation; gender difference; human data; human mortality; human old age (65+); human population dynamics; longevity; mathematical model; model design /development; statistics /biometry

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): The overall objective of the proposed research is to develop and test a new methodology for projecting future trends in adult mortality by age and sex. This new procedure corrects shortcomings in existing forecasting methods, including the widely used Lee-Carter model. More accurate projections of adult mortality are essential to improving projections of the population size of the oldest age groups, and of the future cost of public pension and health care systems. Specific aims are as follows: 1) Complete testing the goodness-of-fit of the logistic model for the age pattern of the force of mortality. Preliminary tests used country-specific data from the Human Mortality Data Bank for females and males ages 25-109 in 14 populations and demonstrated that 2 variants of the logistic models fit well for the period 1950-2000. These tests will be extended to the pre-1950 period in 8 countries for which such data are available. 2) Test the goodness-of-fit of the general shifting model. This model uses only 2 parameters to describe adult mortality change over time: 1 for the amount of the age shift in senescent mortality and the other for the level of background mortality. This approach introduces an alternative way of thinking about senescent mortality change. The conventional view that mortality change implies increases or decreases in age-specific mortality rates is replaced with the view that considers mortality change to be the result of changes in the timing of death. The model is expected to provide a concise mathematical description of past trends. 3) Develop a new methodology for projecting age-sex specific adult mortality rates over time based on the general shifting mortality model. 4) Test the new projection method by comparing its results with projections produced by the Lee-Carter procedure.

描述（由申请人提供）：拟议的研究的总体目标是开发和测试一种新方法，以预测按年龄和性别来预测成人死亡率的未来趋势。该新过程纠正了现有预测方法中的缺点，包括广泛使用的Lee-Carter模型。成人死亡率的更准确的预测对于改善年龄段最古老的人口规模以及公共养老金和医疗保健系统的未来成本的预测至关重要。具体目的如下：1）完整测试死亡力的年龄模式的逻辑模型的合适性。初步测试使用了来自人类死亡率数据库的特定国家数据，用于14个人群中25-109岁的男性和男性，并证明了Logistic模型的2个变体非常适合1950 - 2000年。这些测试将扩展到1950年前的期间，在8个国家可用的国家中。 2）测试一般转移模型的合适性。该模型仅使用2个参数来描述成人死亡率随时间的变化：1对于衰老死亡率的年龄变化数量，另一个是背景死亡率水平。这种方法介绍了一种思考衰老死亡率变化的替代方法。传统的观点是，死亡率变化意味着年龄特异性死亡率的增加或下降被认为死亡率变化是死亡时间变化的结果。该模型有望提供对过去趋势的简洁数学描述。 3）开发一种基于一般转移死亡率模型的新方法，用于预测年龄特定的成人死亡率。 4）通过将其结果与Lee-Carter程序产生的预测进行比较来测试新投影方法。