Disasters as Conflict Multipliers: The Case of the Beirut Blast

灾难加剧冲突：贝鲁特爆炸事件

• 批准号: 2742803
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: CARDIFF UNIVERSITY
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Studentship
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2022 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=studentship-2742803
• 关键词: Disasters; Conflict; Multipliers; Case; Beirut; Disasters; Conflict; Multipliers; Case; Beirut

The Beirut blast of August 2020 was one of the largest non-nuclear explosions in modern history. It left more than 200 dead, damaged over half of the city, and pulverized its port (Human Rights Watch, 2021). Almost two years later, the specter of civil conflict continues to loom over the small Mediterranean nation as it battles with one of the top three worst economic crises since the mid-nineteenth century (World Bank, 2021). In studying the outcomes of disasters, disaster-conflict research has limited itself to a binary: disasters either create civil conflict or they promote social solidarity and cohesion. Disasters are therefore imagined as exogenous events to preexisting conflicts. This line of thinking largely neglects disaster effects on ongoing conflict structures. This project will draw on the Beirut blast as a case study to introduce three main theoretical insights into disaster-conflict research: understanding disasters as conflict multipliers that lead to more conflict outbreaks in existent conflict settings, not simply as conflict creators/inhibitors; the role of far-right groups in the instrumentalization of disaster for political ascent; and the inadvertent function of non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and foreign - primarily Western- aid in contributing to post-disaster conflict. Following the initial hypothesis that intensifying vulnerabilities can aggravate existing conflict in disaster contexts, the problem this section aims to investigate is whether the inequalities in administering foreign funds by NGOs can be linked to conflict exacerbation. While this phenomenon can be said to have impacted multiple vulnerable groups, the focus of the project will be on the Shia, since they are the only one of such marginalized communities that have been involved in conflicts predating the blast. A mixed-methods framework of quantitative and qualitative methods will be adopted to support a reflexive and inductive study design. The research begins by identifying the key historical junctures that created pre-disaster vulnerabilities of two marginalized communities in Lebanon, internally displaced Shia and Syrian refugees. This will be performed through a critical review of the literature on Lebanese internal migration and Syrian refugee crisis. I will then employ a quantitative assessment of economic vulnerability before and after the Beirut blast in Beirut's marginalized neighborhoods. In addition to existing public municipal records, this data will mainly be procured through short-form surveys that will be administered to a randomized sample of Shia and Syrian residents, measuring levels of income, unemployment, and preparedness measures.

2020年8月的贝鲁特爆炸是现代历史上最大的非核爆炸之一。它使200多人死亡，损坏了一半以上的城市，并粉碎了港口（人权观察，2021年）。差不多两年后，民间冲突的幽灵继续笼罩着小型地中海国家，因为它与十九世纪中叶以来最严重的经济危机之一（世界银行，2021年）作战。在研究灾难的结果时，灾难冲突的研究将自己限于二进制：灾难要么造成民间冲突，要么促进社会团结和凝聚力。因此，灾难被认为是已经存在的冲突的外源事件。这种思维方式在很大程度上忽略了对正在进行的冲突结构的影响。该项目将借助贝鲁特爆炸作为案例研究，将三个主要理论见解引入灾难冲突研究：将灾难理解为冲突乘数，导致现有冲突环境中发生更多的冲突爆发，而不仅仅是作为冲突的创造者/抑制剂；极右翼团体在政治上升的灾难工具中的作用；非政府组织（NGO）和外国人的无意功能 - 主要是西方帮助造成灾后冲突的帮助。在最初的假设是加剧漏洞可能会加剧灾难环境中现有的冲突，本节旨在调查的问题是，通过非政府组织管理外国资金的不平等是否可以与冲突加剧有关。尽管可以说这种现象影响了多个弱势群体，但该项目的重点将放在什叶派上，因为它们是唯一在爆炸之前参与冲突的这样的边缘化社区之一。将采用定量和定性方法的混合方法框架来支持反思性和归纳性研究设计。该研究首先确定黎巴嫩两个边缘化社区，内部流离失所的什叶派和叙利亚难民的关键历史关键时刻。这将通过对有关黎巴嫩内部移民和叙利亚难民危机的文献进行批判性综述。然后，我将对贝鲁特边缘化社区的贝鲁特爆炸之前和之后进行对经济脆弱性的定量评估。除了现有的公共市政记录外，该数据还将主要通过简短的调查来采购，这些调查将对什叶派和叙利亚居民的随机样本进行管理，衡量收入水平，失业和准备措施。