Graduate Driver Licensing: Lower Exposure/Better Driving

毕业驾驶执照：更低的暴露/更好的驾驶

• 批准号: 7073687
• 负责人: PINAR KARACA-MANDIC
• 金额: $ 9.34万
• 依托单位: RAND CORPORATION
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2006
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2006-05-01 至 2008-04-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/7073687
• 关键词: adolescence (12-20); behavioral /social science research tag; data collection methodology /evaluation; developmental psychology; education evaluation /planning; human data; human mortality; legal /correctional; mathematical model; model design /development; statistics /biometry; training; transportation /recreation safety; vehicular accident; adolescence (12-20); behavioral /social science research tag; data collection methodology /evaluation; developmental psychology; education evaluation /planning; human data; human mortality; legal /correctional; mathematical model; model design /development; statistics /biometry; training; transportation /recreation safety; vehicular accident

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): The literature on teenage driving indicates that teenagers are at elevated risk for motor vehicle crashes. In 2003, teenagers (ages 13-19) accounted for 10% of the U.S. population, and 13% of motor vehicle crash deaths. In 2001, motor vehicle crashes were the top reason for death among the teenagers. 41 % of the female teenage fatalities and 34% of the male teenage fatalities resulted from a motor vehicle crash. Various studies have attributed this increased risk level to factors such as the fact that teenagers have low level of driving experience, tend to drive at riskier times (night-time), and usually carry other teenage passengers in their car, leading to a distracting environment for the driver. Starting in 1996, states have responded to these concerns by adopting graduated driver licensing (GDL) policies to reduce traffic hazards for teenagers. Previous literature evaluating the impact of graduated driver licensing (GDL) policies of the 1990s has demonstrated the policies' effectiveness on reducing teenage involved fatal crashes. However, much remains unanswered: Why do they work? How do they work? Will the initial effects erode? How might they be improved? The difficulty in answering questions above have been due to the unavailability of good estimates of how many teenage drivers are on the roads at any given time, and how that varies with the GDL policies. In particular, there is limited evidence suggesting whether these policies achieve favorable results by improving teenage driving behavior, or by simply limiting the amount of teenage driving temporarily. To fill this gap, we will first build a model that relates the amount of teenage driving and riskiness of teenage driving to the state level GDL policies for each state-year pair using a novel econometric framework. We will then estimate the parameters of this model using data from the Fatal Accident Reporting System (PARS) and the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration's (NHTSA) General Estimates System (GES), 1990- 2005. Our primary aim is to assess the relative effectiveness of the GDL policies on limiting the amount of teenage driving and on improving teenage driving. We also aim to understand which components of the GDL policies (adult supervision, nighttime restrictions, teenage passenger limits) contribute to better driving as opposed to limited driving. Finally, we would like to study the dynamics of the GDL policies, and understand whether they have sustained long-term effects in terms of improved teenage driving behavior.

描述（由申请人提供）：关于青少年驾驶的文献表明，少年撞车的风险较高。 2003年，青少年（13-19岁）占美国人口的10％，占汽车坠机死亡的13％。 2001年，汽车撞车是青少年死亡的主要原因。女性青少年死亡人数中有41％和34％的男性少年死亡是由于汽车撞车造成的。各种研究将这种风险水平提高归因于诸如青少年的驾驶经验水平较低的事实，倾向于在风险更高的时间（夜间）驾驶，通常将其他少年乘客带到他们的汽车中，从而使驾驶员分散了注意力的环境。从1996年开始，各州通过采用分级驾驶许可（GDL）政策来减少青少年交通危害，从而对这些担忧做出了回应。先前评估了1990年代分级驾驶许可（GDL）政策影响的文献表明，政策对减少青少年的有效性涉及致命的崩溃。但是，仍然没有答案：为什么它们工作？他们如何工作？初始效果会侵蚀吗？如何改善它们？上面回答问题的困难是由于对任何给定时间上有多少少年司机的良好估计以及与GDL政策有何不同所致。特别是，有限的证据表明，这些政策是通过改善青少年驾驶行为或简单地暂时限制少年驾驶数量来实现有利的结果。为了填补这一空白，我们将首先建立一个模型，该模型将使用新的计量经济学框架与每个州年对的青少年驾驶和少年驾驶风险与州级GDL政策联系起来。然后，我们将使用致命事故报告系统（PARS）和国家公路交通安全管理局（NHTSA）的一般估计系统（GES）的数据估算该模型的参数。1990- 2005年，我们的主要目的是评估GDL政策在限制限制青少年驾驶和改善青少年驾驶量的相对效率。我们还旨在了解GDL政策的哪些组成部分（成人监督，夜间限制，青少年乘客限制）有助于更好的驾驶，而不是驾驶有限。最后，我们想研究GDL政策的动态，并了解它们在改善的青少年驾驶行为方面是否持续了长期影响。