A Generalized Model for Post-transplant Survival

移植后生存的通用模型

• 批准号: 6918521
• 负责人: CHUNG-CHOU Ho CHANG
• 金额: $ 12.59万
• 依托单位: UNIVERSITY OF PITTSBURGH AT PITTSBURGH
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2001
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2001-09-01 至 2007-01-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/6918521
• 关键词: human data; liver transplantation; mathematical model; model design /development; patient oriented research; prognosis

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant) The applicant's long-term career goal is to become an independent investigator in analytical methodologies for clinical and health services research. She will dedicate her career to conducting quantitative studies and promoting the proper use of analytical methodologies in these research areas. This career development award will provide her with initial support for achieving her career goals. There are three goals for her career development over the next five years. First, she will develop a general survival regression model that is more encompassing than any of the semi-parametric regression models currently used in the analysis of liver transplantation data. The proposed research will result in less restrictive assumptions and provide a systematic way of constructing survival models in liver transplantation studies. The products of the research include a new model that can be used to provide estimates on post-transplant survival, which in turn can be used to estimate the optimal timing for liver transplantation. Her second objective is to develop expertise in clinical applications of survival analysis for patient-oriented research. The third goal is to become an educator to clinical researchers in analytical methodologies. While many other questions are also important in the area of transplantation (such as which organ allocation method is optimal and what is the appropriate time to list a patient for transplant), many of the clinically related questions require accurate and clinically relevant predictions of survival. The proposed research will focus on: Aim 1: Development of a general survival regression model. Aim 2: Development of diagnostic procedures for the general survival regression model. Aim 3: Assessment of the impact of different survival models on the prognosis in liver transplantation. The proposed general survival model that reduces to both the additive and multiplicative model as special cases. Moreover, the covariate effect on hazard in this model can be either constant or time-varying. Estimation of the model parameters will through the penalized log-partial likelihood with double penalty terms. Inference on the effect of any given covariate will also be assessed.

描述（由申请人提供） 申请人的长期职业目标是成为一名独立调查员 临床和卫生服务研究的分析方法。她会 她的职业生涯致力于进行定量研究并促进适当的 在这些研究领域中使用分析方法。这个职业 发展奖将为她提供实现她的初步支持 职业目标。 她为未来五年的职业发展设定了三个目标。 首先，她将开发一个更通用的生存回归模型 比当前使用的任何半参数回归模型都包含在内 肝移植数据分析。拟议的研究将 导致限制性较少的假设并提供系统的方法 构建肝移植研究中的生存模型。的产品 该研究包括一个新模型，可用于提供估计 移植后存活率，进而可用于估计最佳存活率 肝移植的时机。她的第二个目标是发展专业知识 以患者为导向的研究中生存分析的临床应用。 第三个目标是成为分析领域临床研究人员的教育者 方法论。 尽管许多其他问题在移植领域也很重要 （比如哪种器官分配方式是最优的，什么是合适的） 列出移植患者的时间），许多临床相关的 问题需要准确且与临床相关的生存预测。这 拟议的研究将集中于： 目标 1：开发一般生存回归模型。 目标 2：开发一般生存回归的诊断程序 模型。 目标3：评估不同生存模式对预后的影响 在肝移植中。 所提出的一般生存模型可减少为加法和 乘法模型作为特殊情况。此外，协变量对危险的影响 该模型中的值可以是恒定的，也可以是随时间变化的。模型的估计 参数将通过双倍惩罚对数部分似然 处罚条款。对任何给定协变量的影响的推断也将是 评估。