MEZCAL - Methods for Extending the horiZontal Coverage of the Amoc Latitudinally and retrospectively

MEZCAL - 横向和回顾性扩展 Amoc 水平覆盖范围的方法

• 批准号: NE/Y004272/1
• 负责人: Helen Johnson
• 金额: $ 19.2万
• 依托单位: University of Oxford
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2023
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2023 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FY004272%2F1
• 关键词: MEZCAL; Methods; Extending; horiZontal; Coverage

The AMOC is a large-scale ocean circulation system composed of currents that carry warm, shallow water northwards and return cold, deeper water southwards. The AMOC is crucial in maintaining the relatively mild winter climate of north west Europe. A shutdown of the AMOC would strongly impact European temperature and precipitation variability.Because of the AMOC's role in regulating the global climate system, several direct ocean observing programmes have been put in place to monitor the AMOC. In the North Atlantic, the two main observing arrays are the Rapid Climate Change Programme (RAPID) and the Overturning in the Subpolar North Atlantic Program (OSNAP) at 26N and 50-60N, respectively. While these programmes have transformed our understanding of changes in the AMOC, they are limited to single lines of latitude and have relatively short lifespans (two decades at most). These constraints prevent us from being able to understand changes on long (decadal to centennial) timescales or understand how the AMOC is connected across the latitudes where we don't have direct measurements. Further, the maintenance of the observing arrays is costly and there is no backup system in place in the event of instrumentation failure or loss.To overcome the limitations of the RAPID and OSNAP observing arrays, the oceanographic community has sought alternative solutions for monitoring the AMOC using cost-effective observing systems, like existing satellite and autonomous ocean robot data that have high spatial and temporal coverage. These alternative solutions for monitoring the AMOC have recently been trialled at a few places in the North Atlantic. At the same time, advances in machine learning and modelling methods are starting to prove useful for monitoring the AMOC from indirect measurements.The AMOC monitoring at RAPID and OSNAP will soon achieve 20- and 10- years worth of continuous measurements, respectively. The combination of these AMOC records with the recent developments in alternative AMOC monitoring methods means that the oceanographic community now has the tools in place to dramatically improve our ability to understand the AMOC across the North Atlantic Ocean over long time periods. Thus, MEZCAL will combine computational advances with the recent proven alternative methods for monitoring the AMOC to extend the coverage of AMOC observations across the North Atlantic and deliver a new framework that will make a step change in our understanding of AMOC variability. This project will also provide recommendations for how to build a sustainable AMOC monitoring system moving forward.

AMOC是一个大规模的海洋循环系统，该系统由电流组成，其向北供应温暖，浅水，向南返回冷水。 AMOC对于维持西北欧相对温和的冬季气候至关重要。 AMOC的关闭将极大地影响欧洲的温度和降水量的可变性。由于AMOC在调节全球气候系统中的作用，已经制定了一些直接的海洋观察计划来监测AMOC。在北大西洋，两个主要观察阵列分别是快速气候变化计划（快速）和北大西洋亚大西洋计划（OSNAP）的倾覆，分别为26N和50-60N。尽管这些程序改变了我们对AMOC变化的理解，但它们仅限于单一的纬度线，并且寿命相对较短（最多二十年）。这些限制使我们无法理解长时间（十个百年纪念）时间尺度的变化，或者了解AMOC如何在我们没有直接测量的纬度上连接。 Further, the maintenance of the observing arrays is costly and there is no backup system in place in the event of instrumentation failure or loss.To overcome the limitations of the RAPID and OSNAP observing arrays, the oceanographic community has sought alternative solutions for monitoring the AMOC using cost-effective observing systems, like existing satellite and autonomous ocean robot data that have high spatial and temporal coverage.这些用于监测AMOC的替代解决方案最近在北大西洋的几个地方进行了试验。同时，机器学习和建模方法的进步开始被证明对从间接测量进行监视AMOC很有用。快速和OSNAP的AMOC监视很快将分别实现20年和10年的连续测量值。这些AMOC记录与替代AMOC监测方法的最新发展的结合意味着，海洋学社区现在拥有适当的工具，可以极大地提高我们在很长一段时间内了解整个北大西洋的AMOC的能力。因此，梅斯卡尔（Mezcal）将将计算进步与最近的经过验证的替代方法相结合，用于监视AMOC，以扩展北大西洋上的AMOC观察结果的覆盖范围，并提供一个新的框架，这将使我们对AMOC可变性的理解做出逐步改变。该项目还将为如何建立可持续的AMOC监控系统向前发展提供建议。