How will Emperor Penguins Respond to Changing Ice Conditions (EPIC)?

帝企鹅将如何应对不断变化的冰况（EPIC）？

• 批准号: NE/Y000676/1
• 负责人: Peter Fretwell
• 金额: $ 9.33万
• 依托单位: British Antarctic Survey
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2024
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2024 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FY000676%2F1
• 关键词: How; will; Emperor; Penguins; Respond

In 2021, the first full inventory of emperor penguin colonies in Antarctica was generated using satellite imagery. It is therefore not surprising that their population vulnerability to changing climate is not yet well known, with colony movements only having been observed at a small number of sites. As Antarctica responds to warming climate and ocean conditions, sea ice is likely to decline presenting a potentially significant risk to the viability of emperor penguin colonies because they live on sea ice and rely on its stability for breeding and feeding. The extent of sea ice fell by over 2 million km2 compared to average around Antarctica between 2016 and 2018, and reductions of future sea ice loss suggest that the majority of colonies may become quasi-extinct by 2100 under current greenhouse gas emission scenarios. However, both historic and future colony responses are poorly known. For example, the models which predict future behaviour are based upon breeding factors measured at a single site and behavioural factors measured at only 9 sites over a short time period of 13 years. Thus there is a significant need to improve our understanding of past colony changes and how they link to changing sea ice habitat conditions so that we can better predict future colony vulnerability under a changing climate.Although sea ice loss (and thus emperor penguin habitat) is controlled on a large scale by warming climate and oceans, an additionally overlooked process which may be increasingly disrupting sea ice conditions is the calving of icebergs which can push, or cause the fracturing of, sea ice, leaving an embayment sea ice free. In response to the loss of sea ice, emperor penguins may move to another region where sea ice conditions are more stable, or if no such area is available, they have more recently been observed to climb onto the glaciers themselves. This is a dramatic response, but without it the colony may cease to exist. Such observations of movement are again limited to a few local studies, and the impact of calving-induced sea ice breakout events upon emperor penguin colonies has never been measured. Our aim is to understand the past, present and future vulnerability of emperor penguin colonies to changing glacier and sea ice conditions. We will use existing archives of freely-available satellite imagery to map past colony movements, sea ice and glacier calving conditions at each of the 61 newly identified emperor penguin colonies in Antarctica. This will allow us to establish how historic sea ice conditions have changed at each colony and will also allow us to understand the impact of specific glacier calving events over the last 30-40 years. Our work will allow us to determine whether colony ability to move onto glacier ice or to migrate to new sea ice areas is a common reaction to sea ice loss, or whether this is a new phenomena. Using this information, we will gain better understanding of colony vulnerability to sea ice changes. In areas where colonies currently appear at risk, we will use very high-resolution commercial satellite imagery to establish whether they remain viable as a breeding colony. This understanding will be used to control and enhance numerical models of penguin population dynamics and breeding success under future scenarios of sea ice and glacier calving conditions. In particular, as air temperatures warm or as glaciers calve at a particular frequency, we will test how colonies will respond. The outcome of this work is vitally important for our understanding of the species and its survival over the next century and it expected to form the foundation for a case to establish emperor penguins as a protected species in the face of climate change.

2021年，使用卫星图像生成了南极企鹅殖民地皇帝殖民地的第一个完整库存。因此，毫不奇怪的是，他们的人口脆弱性尚不为人所知，而在少数地点只观察到殖民地运动。随着南极对温暖的气候和海洋状况的反应，海冰很可能会下降，因为它们生活在海冰上，并依靠其稳定性来繁殖和喂养，这可能会对企鹅皇帝殖民地的生存能力带来潜在的重大风险。在2016年至2018年之间，海冰的范围下降了200万公里，而南极洲的平均水平则下降了，而未来海冰损失的减少表明，在当前温室气体排放方案下，大多数菌落可能在2100列出。但是，历史和未来的殖民地反应都是鲜为人知的。例如，预测未来行为的模型是基于在单个地点和行为因素上测得的繁殖因子，在短时间内仅在9个地点测得的行为因素。因此，有很大的需求要改善我们对过去殖民地变化的理解以及它们如何与不断变化的海冰栖息地条件联系在一起，以便我们可以在气候变化的情况下更好地预测未来的殖民地脆弱性。尽管海冰的丧失（因此，企鹅帝国栖息地）在大规模的大规模控制下，通过加热气候和海洋，这是越来越多地破坏冰冰的冰冰，这是冰上越来越多的造成的冰冰，这是冰冰的越来越多的造成的冰冰，这是冰上的造成的，这是冰上的造成的冰冰，这是冰上的造成的，即冰上的造成的造成的造成的造成了造成的造成的造成，而冰上的造成了造成的镇定。海冰，留下体一的海冰。为了响应海冰的损失，企鹅皇帝可能会移至另一个更稳定的海冰条件的地区，或者如果没有这样的区域，最近发现它们可以爬上冰川本身。这是一个戏剧性的反应，但是没有它，殖民地可能不再存在。这种运动的观察结果再次仅限于一些当地研究，而产犊引起的海冰突破事件对企鹅帝国殖民地的影响从未得到测量。我们的目的是了解企鹅殖民地对改变冰川和海冰条件的过去，现在和未来的脆弱性。我们将使用现有的自由卫星图像的现有档案，以在南极洲的61个新确定的新确定的企鹅殖民地中的每一个中绘制出殖民地运动，海冰和冰川产犊条件。这将使我们能够确定每个殖民地的历史海冰状况如何变化，还可以使我们能够了解过去30 - 40年来特定的冰川产犊事件的影响。我们的工作将使我们能够确定菌落能够移居冰川冰或迁移到新海冰地区的能力是对海冰损失的常见反应，还是这是一种新现象。使用这些信息，我们将更好地了解殖民地对海冰变化的脆弱性。在殖民地目前出现危险的地区，我们将使用非常高分辨率的商业卫星图像来确定它们作为繁殖菌落是否仍然可行。这种理解将用于控制和增强企鹅种群动态和繁殖成功的数值模型，并在未来的海冰和冰川产犊条件下。特别是，随着空气温度温暖或作为特定频率的冰川犊牛，我们将测试菌落的反应方式。这项工作的结果对于我们对下个世纪的物种及其生存至关重要，它预计将在面对气候变化的情况下建立企鹅皇帝作为受保护的物种的基础。