TowaRds the future Projection and management of the Impact of Climate Change on Bolivian water Supply (TROPICCS)

展望未来 气候变化对玻利维亚供水影响的预测和管理 (TROPICCS)

• 批准号: NE/W004267/1
• 负责人: Francesca Pellicciotti
• 金额: $ 10.65万
• 依托单位: Northumbria University
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2021
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2021 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FW004267%2F1
• 关键词: TowaRds; future; Projection; management; Impact

In Bolivia, a large proportion of the water supply of the capital city, La Paz, is provided by meltwater from glaciers. During the year glaciers tend to melt when conditions are dry and warm, and so they provide water when it is needed most. However, these glaciers are shrinking rapidly due to climate change, and their reduction and possible total disappearance will reduce the water available for La Paz for drinking water, agriculture and hydropower. It is therefore important to understand exactly how important glaciers are for water supplies and how glacier runoff interacts with vegetation and peatlands, especially during very dry conditions when other sources of water are lacking. It is also necessary to build modelling tools that will allow us to predict how the glaciers and water resources from the catchments will change in the future, since this information can be used to better manage and adapt to the future change in water supply.Our new project will combine scientists that work with state-of-the-art glacier and hydrological models from Northumbria University, UK, with Bolivian glaciologists and hydrologists from Universidad Mayor de San Andrés, Bolivia and experts on operational melt models from CIMA Research Foundation in Italy. We will first collect high resolution satellite data for the catchment, create a map of landcover by classifying satellite imagery and install a new weather station on one of the glaciers in the catchment. These data will be used, together with existing datasets and satellite derived products, to run a detailed model that can represent in a physical manner all of the processes that affect the amount of water available for use in the catchment, including from glacier melt, groundwater, evapotranspiration and all the main hydrological processes occurring in high mountain catchments. We will also run a simpler, but faster model over the glacier areas and compare the results of the models. We will then construct a model that can represent the melt of Bolivian glaciers well while remaining efficient enough for use by water managers and for modelling into the future.Through this work, the project will meet the following objectives:1. Provide a new baseline of glaciological and hydrological data for the La Paz/El Alto water supply catchments; 2. Determine the drivers of glacier melt water contribution to water supply and its interannual fluctuations, including during droughts;3. Determine the importance of feedback mechanisms between glaciers, snow, hydrology and vegetation in the magnitude and seasonality of catchment runoff and; 4. Establish the model complexity required to adequately represent glacier runoff in operational water resource modelling.The results of our work will be published in peer-reviewed journals, but we will also write a briefing document in Spanish for local stakeholders (water managers and government officials) which will be presented at a dissemination workshop in Bolivia. The project will lead to: a new partnership between the organisations involved; new knowledge of Bolivian glaciers and their importance to water supplies; and the development of operational modelling tools that work well in the region. This will allow us to apply for future funding with the long-term aim of predicting glacier change over the entire Cordillera Real and its effect on water supplies into the future - thereby providing the information needed to better manage Bolivian water resources. This will allow planning for additional catchment water storage, implementation of water use efficiency measures, or the implementation of improved drought prediction systems to enhance decision making about water resources.

在玻利维亚，首都拉巴斯的供水中的很大一部分是冰川的冰川提供的。在这一年中，冰川在干燥和温暖的情况下倾向于融化，因此在最需要时它们会提供水。但是，由于气候变化，这些冰川正在迅速收缩，它们的减少和可能的总消失将减少La Paz可用于饮用水，农业和水力发电的水。因此，重要的是要准确了解冰川对供水的重要性以及冰川径流如何与蔬菜和果皮相互作用，尤其是在缺乏其他水源的非常干燥的条件下。 It is also necessary to build modelling tools that will allow us to predict how the glaciers and water resources from the catchments will change in the future, since this information can be used to better manage and adapt to the future change in water supply.Our new project will combine scientists that work with state-of-the-art glacier and hydrologic models from Northumbria University, UK, with Bolivian glaciologists and hydrologists from Universidad Mayor de San Andrés, Bolivia and意大利CIMA研究基金会的运营融化模型专家。我们将首先收集用于集水区的高分辨率卫星数据，通过对卫星图像进行分类并在集水区的一个冰川上安装新的气象站，从而创建陆地覆盖地图。这些数据将与现有数据集和卫星衍生产品一起使用，以运行一个详细的模型，该模型可以在物理方式中代表所有影响流域可用的水量的过程，包括来自冰川融化，地下水，蒸发量以及所有主要的水文流程在高山集水集中发生。我们还将在冰川区域运行更简单但更快的模型，并比较模型的结果。然后，我们将构建一个模型，该模型可以很好地代表玻利维亚冰川的融化，同时保持足够有效的效率，以供水管理人员使用并在未来进行建模。通过这项工作，该项目将符合以下目标：1。为La Paz/Elto供水流域提供新的冰川和氢数据基线； 2。确定冰川融化的驱动器对供水及其年际波动的贡献，包括在干旱期间； 3。确定冰川，雪，水文学和植被之间反馈机制在集水径流的大小和季节性中的重要性； 4.建立在运营水资源模型中充分代表冰川径流所需的模型复杂性。我们的工作结果将在同行评审的期刊上发表，但我们还将在西班牙利益相关者（水管理人员和政府官员）中撰写一份简报文件，该文件将在玻利维亚的散发车间介绍。该项目将导致：相关组织之间的新合作伙伴关系；玻利维亚冰川的新知识及其对供水的重要性；以及在该地区运行良好的操作建模工具的开发。这将使我们能够申请未来的资金，其长期目标是预测整个Cordillera Real的冰川变化及其对未来水供应的影响，从而提供了更好地管理玻利维亚水资源所需的信息。这将允许计划额外的集水区存储，实施用水效率措施或实施改进的干旱预测系统，以增强有关水资源的决策。