Learning to adapt to an uncertain future: linking genes, trees, people and processes for more resilient treescapes (newLEAF)

学习适应不确定的未来：将基因、树木、人类和过程联系起来，打造更具弹性的树景 (newLEAF)

• 批准号: NE/V019988/1
• 负责人: Adam Kleczkowski
• 金额: $ 34.6万
• 依托单位: University of Strathclyde
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2021
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2021 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FV019988%2F1
• 关键词: Learning; adapt; uncertain; future; linking

This proposal addresses Theme 3: Resilience of UK Treescapes to global change.Treescapes - our woodlands, our forests, our urban trees - are critical to our environment, our health and well-being and our ability to transition to a zero carbon economy via plans to substantially increase tree numbers in the landscape. However, climate change and increasing risks from pests and disease threaten the UK treescape like never before. This future is uncertain but we do know that our treescapes must change to survive and thrive. Although we may see treescapes as permanent or fixed, in truth they have an amazing capacity to be dynamic and shift on timescales that are relevant to human lifespans. Indeed, it is often only human interventions that have prevented populations from changing and adapting. For example, where uncontrolled grazing is allowed, little or no regeneration occurs and there is no opportunity for new genetic diversity to enter the population and for the population to adapt. For treescapes to be resilient, change is essential, but this can take many forms - from low intervention, allowing regeneration but taking little other action, to highly managed situations like production forestry, where deliberate choices can be taken to deploy particular genotypes to track environmental shifts. To understand, live with and shape change within treescapes, we must first learn from how treescapes have changed in the past, then quantify how much potential they have to change in the future, and finally develop ways of building change into our treescapes and the ways we interact with them. This proposal outlines newLEAF, a project to evaluate options for using the extensive natural genetic variation within tree species to keep pace with expected changes in climate and the biotic (pest & disease) environment. Firstly, we will learn from the past 100 years of treescape management in the UK, bringing together historical information on policy and practice with data on changing tree populations on the ground to understand the link between choices made at a policy level and the outcomes for treescape resilience. Then we will quantify the rate of adaptation that can be achieved by both natural and human selection in key tree species for the UK, focusing on traits linked to fitness in forecasted environments and susceptibility to pests and pathogens. We will compare the impacts that natural regeneration versus planting has on the development of biotic communities associated with trees, particularly fungi and insect vectors with the potential to mediate risk. Drawing directly from the experimental work, we will design models incorporating data on trait variability and will evaluate how internal adaptability within tree species can be used, in varying compositions, configurations and under different management regimes, to generate diverse and dynamic treescapes with an in-built capability to track environmental changes, even when that change is uncertain. We will test tools and strategies to minimise risk from pests and pathogens, especially those associated with planned increases in tree numbers in the landscape, learning from the interactions between our set of focal species and their associated communities. Working with stakeholders, we will explore the social and economic drivers that can be deployed to effect change in the landscape, learning from historical environmental policies and their outcomes in the UK and from key case studies in similar systems across Europe. A particular focus will be on people engaging with the concepts of uncertainty, dynamism and change, studying new ways to integrate science and the arts and creating new works framed around these ideas. Bringing together this diverse and multidisciplinary team, we will produce new research, guidance, policy recommendations, art and science-based tools that will advance the cause of resilience in the UK's future treescape.

该提案涉及主题 3：英国树景对全球变化的适应能力。树景——我们的林地、森林、城市树木——对于我们的环境、我们的健康和福祉以及我们通过计划向零碳经济转型的能力至关重要大幅增加景观中的树木数量。然而，气候变化和病虫害风险的增加前所未有地威胁着英国的树景。未来是不确定的，但我们确实知道，我们的树景必须改变才能生存和繁荣。尽管我们可能认为树景是永久的或固定的，但事实上，它们具有惊人的动态能力，并在与人类寿命相关的时间尺度上发生变化。事实上，通常只有人为干预才能阻止人们的改变和适应。例如，在允许不受控制的放牧的地方，再生很少或根本不发生，并且新的遗传多样性没有机会进入种群并且种群没有机会适应。为了使树景具有弹性，改变是必不可少的，但这可以采取多种形式——从低干预，允许再生但几乎不采取其他行动，到高度管理的情况，如生产林业，可以采取深思熟虑的选择来部署特定的基因型来跟踪环境轮班。要理解、适应并塑造树景的变化，我们必须首先了解树景过去如何变化，然后量化它们未来变化的潜力，最后开发将变化构建到我们的树景中的方法和方法我们与他们互动。该提案概述了 newLEAF 项目，该项目旨在评估利用树种内广泛的自然遗传变异的选项，以跟上气候和生物（病虫害）环境的预期变化。首先，我们将学习英国过去 100 年的树景管理，将政策和实践的历史信息与实地树木种群变化的数据结合起来，以了解政策层面的选择与树景结果之间的联系弹力。然后，我们将量化英国关键树种的自然选择和人类选择所能实现的适应率，重点关注与预测环境的适应性以及对害虫和病原体的易感性相关的性状。我们将比较自然更新与种植对与树木相关的生物群落发展的影响，特别是具有调节风险潜力的真菌和昆虫媒介。直接借鉴实验工作，我们将设计包含性状变异数据的模型，并将评估如何在不同的组成、配置和不同的管理制度下使用树种的内部适应性，以生成具有内在特征的多样化和动态的树景。建立了跟踪环境变化的能力，即使这种变化是不确定的。我们将测试工具和策略，以最大限度地减少害虫和病原体的风险，特别是那些与计划增加景观中树木数量相关的风险，并从我们的一组焦点物种与其相关群落之间的相互作用中学习。我们将与利益相关者合作，探索可用于影响景观变化的社会和经济驱动因素，从英国的历史环境政策及其结果以及欧洲类似系统的关键案例研究中学习。特别关注的是人们参与不确定性、活力和变化的概念，研究整合科学和艺术的新方法，并围绕这些想法创作新作品。将这个多元化、多学科的团队聚集在一起，我们将产生新的研究、指导、政策建议、基于艺术和科学的工具，以推动英国未来树景的恢复力事业。

项目成果

The effect of pests and pathogens on forest harvesting regimes: A bioeconomic model

• DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2023.107800
• 发表时间: 2023-03-31
• 期刊: ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS
• 影响因子: 7
• 作者: McTaggart, Ewan;Megiddo, Itamar;Kleczkowski, Adam
• 通讯作者: Kleczkowski, Adam