UKESM 1 year Extension PML

UKESM 1 年延期 PML

基本信息

批准号：
NE/V013262/1
负责人：
Jeremy Blackford
金额：
$ 16.31万
依托单位：
Plymouth Marine Laboratory
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2021
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2021 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FV013262%2F1
关键词：
UKESM year Extension PML

项目摘要

Global climate change is one of the leading environmental threats facing mankind. To develop appropriate mitigation and adaptation strategies requires accurate projections of the future state of the Earth's climate. To address this, we develop Global Climate Models (GCMs) that describe the main physical processes in the coupled climate system. These models are integrated forwards in simulated time, from a pre-industrial period to present-day, forced by observed estimates of key greenhouse gases, aerosols and land-use. The models are then continued into the future forced by a range of greenhouse gas, aerosol and land-use scenarios. Each of the model future climates can then compared to the simulated present-day climates. This analysis results in an ensemble of climate change estimates that can be used to assess the socio-economic and ecological impacts of the simulated changes and aid in the development of mitigation and adaptation policies. GCMs have been further developed into Earth system models (ESMs), as we did in the UKESM LTSM, where UKESM1 was developed from the physical model, HadGEM3-GC3.1. A key difference between ESMs and GCMs is the former include an interactive description of the global carbon cycle supporting analysis of both physical climate change and potential changes in the efficacy by which anthropogenic emitted CO2 is taken up by natural carbon reservoirs. A reduction in the uptake efficiency of Earth's natural carbon reservoirs may result in a larger fraction of emitted carbon dioxide remaining in the atmosphere to warm the planet. Accurate estimates of the future evolution of both the global climate system and the carbon cycle are therefore crucial for getting a clear picture of the future risks humanity faces, as well as for developing mitigation actions (that typically target modifying the efficacy of carbon uptake) to keep global warming to acceptable levels. To address this need we developed the 1st UK Earth system model (UKESM1) and ran it for a large suite of experiments in the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). UKESM1 is the most advanced Earth system model in the world today and as well as a coupled physical climate model also includes interactive treatment of (i) the global carbon cycle and vegetation, (ii) atmospheric chemistry and aerosols and (iii) models for the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. We have run a large (19 member) ensemble of historical simulations with UKESM1 (1850 to 2015) and extended a number of these into the future (2015 to 2100) following 7 different future emission pathways from CMIP6 scenarioMIP. In this extension, we propose a detailed analysis of the UKESM1 historical ensemble and the suite of scenarioMIP projections. Our aims are (i) to better understand what drives observed historical Earth system change and ask how well UKESM1 represents these changes, (ii) with the knowledge from (i), analyse simulated Earth system change in the UKESM1 scenarioMIP ensemble, combining this with the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble, to document the range of simulated changes across the coupled Earth system over the coming century. Two primary emphases in this analysis will be; (a) to document and contrast regional changes at different levels of global mean warming (e.g. 2C or 3C) and (b) where possible, to constrain the various coupled feedbacks simulated by UKESM1 that drive the changes we see. In addition to these two science goals, we will also continue to provide support to the large UK UKESM user and model development community and plan to hold two consultation workshops with (i) UK climate policymakers and (ii) UK climate impacts researchers. In these workshops we will present our findings on predicted future Earth system change and begin a two-way dialogue on how UK Earth system modelling can best serve the needs of these two groups, developing future collaborations based on mutual understanding of each groups needs and goals.

全球气候变化是人类面临的主要环境威胁之一。为了制定适当的缓解和适应策略，需要对地球气候未来状态的准确预测。为了解决这个问题，我们开发了描述耦合气候系统中主要物理过程的全球气候模型（GCM）。这些模型在模拟时间内（从前工业时期到当今）的模拟时间集成，这是由于观察到的关键温室气体，气溶胶和土地使用的观察到的估计值所强迫。然后，这些型号继续延续到未来，并由一系列温室气体，气溶胶和土地利用场景强迫。然后，每个模型的未来气候都可以与当前的模拟气候进行比较。该分析产生了气候变化估计的合奏，可用于评估模拟变化的社会经济和生态影响，并有助于缓解和适应政策的发展。就像我们在UKESM LTSM中所做的那样，GCM已进一步发展为地球系统模型（ESM），在该UKESM LTSM中，UKESM1是从物理模型HADGEM3-GC3.1开发的。 ESM和GCM之间的一个关键区别是，前者包括对全球碳循环的互动描述，支持对物理气候变化的分析以及人为发射的CO2的疗效的潜在变化，而天然碳储层则对其进行了分析。地球天然碳储层的吸收效率降低可能会导致大气中剩余的二氧化碳含量更大，以使地球温暖。因此，对全球气候系统和碳周期的未来演变的准确估计对于清楚地了解人类面临的未来风险以及制定缓解措施（通常针对修改碳吸收功效）至关重要保持全球变暖至可接受的水平。为了满足这一需求，我们开发了第1个英国地球系统模型（UKESM1），并在第六个耦合模型对比项目（CMIP6）中运行了大量实验。 UKESM1是当今世界上最先进的地球系统模型，并且耦合的物理气候模型还包括（i）（i）全球碳循环和植被，（ii）大气化学和气溶胶以及（iii）模型的互动处理。格陵兰和南极冰盖。我们已经与UKESM1（1850年至2015年）进行了大型（19个成员）的历史模拟合奏，并在7种不同的未来排放途径与CMIP6 Scenariomip的未来发射途径之后，将其中的许多人扩展到了未来（2015年至2100）。在此扩展过程中，我们提出了对UKESM1历史合奏和场景预测套件的详细分析。我们的目标是（i）更好地了解观察到的历史地球系统的驱动器的变化，并询问UKESM1如何代表这些变化，（ii）借助（i）的知识，分析了UKESM1场景中的模拟地球系统变化，并将其与之结合。 CMIP6多模型合奏，以记录未来世纪耦合地球系统的模拟变化范围。该分析的两个主要重点将是：（a）在不同级别的全球平均变暖（例如2C或3C）和（b）的情况下记录和对比区域变化，以约束由UKESM1模拟的各种耦合反馈，从而驱动我们看到的更改。除了这两个科学目标外，我们还将继续为英国大型UKESM用户和模型开发社区提供支持，并计划与（i）英国气候政策制定者和（ii）英国气候对研究人员产生两次咨询研讨会。在这些研讨会中，我们将在预测的未来地球系统变化上介绍我们的发现，并就英国地球系统建模如何最好地满足这两个小组的需求，并基于对每个群体需求和目标的相互了解，开发未来的合作，开发未来的合作。

项目成果

期刊论文数量（9）

专著数量（0）

科研奖励数量（0）

会议论文数量（0）

专利数量（0）

Choice of Forecast Scenario Impacts the Carbon Allocation at the Same Global Warming Levels

预测情景的选择会影响相同全球变暖水平下的碳分配

DOI：
10.5194/egusphere-2022-1483
发表时间：
2023
期刊：
影响因子：
0
作者：
De Mora L
通讯作者：
De Mora L

Climate change vulnerability assessment of the main marine commercial fish and invertebrates of Portugal.

DOI：
10.1038/s41598-021-82595-5
发表时间：
2021-02-03
期刊：
Scientific reports
影响因子：
4.6
作者：
Bueno-Pardo J;Nobre D;Monteiro JN;Sousa PM;Costa EFS;Baptista V;Ovelheiro A;Vieira VMNCS;Chícharo L;Gaspar M;Erzini K;Kay S;Queiroga H;Teodósio MA;Leitão F
通讯作者：
Leitão F

UKESM1.1: Development and evaluation of an updated configuration of the UK Earth System Model

UKESM1.1：英国地球系统模型更新配置的开发和评估