CIRCULATES: A comprehensive investigation of clouds, circulation and constraints on climate sensitivity

环流：对云、环流和气候敏感性限制的全面调查

基本信息

批准号：
NE/T006250/1
负责人：
Paulo Ceppi
金额：
$ 89.45万
依托单位：
Imperial College London
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2020
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2020 至无数据
项目状态：
未结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FT006250%2F1
关键词：
CIRCULATES comprehensive investigation clouds circulation

项目摘要

Climate models are numerical models used to make projections of future climate change. Because of limitations in computing power, approximations to some parts of the model are required, particularly on small scales where important processes occur that are smaller than the model grid on which calculations are carried out. It is not clear how best to approximate small-scale processes and as a result, different GCMs use different approximations and produce different predictions of future climate change. One of the most important of these uncertainties is how low clouds are represented, and that is the focus of the CIRCULATES proposal.We now have access to new, high resolution satellite observations that we can use to build datasets that give us a much better idea of how clouds form and disperse, and how they interact with the environment in which they find themselves. We also have high resolution modelling tools that are able to represent the physical processes necessary to simulate clouds with much higher accuracy. High resolution models are far too computationally expensive to run for many model years over the whole globe in a way that could be used to project changes in climate directly. However, in conjunction with the satellite data, they can be used to determine the best way to represent the effects of clouds on the GCM model grid. This information can be transferred to the climate model, which can then be run to discover the impact of our findings on global climate change. In CIRCULATES, we propose to develop both new satellite data and high resolution simulations that are specifically designed to assist with improving and understanding the response of climate models with a focus on tropical and sub-tropical clouds.The project aims to assist the climate science and policy communities in two ways. First, the discoveries that we make will be used to assess the simulations made by climate models run by modelling centres around the world for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports. How well are IPCC GCMs representing cloud processes in the present day? How does their representation change for simulations of the future and is this appropriate? By determining the fidelity of simulation in comparison with high resolution satellite and model data, we will determine the extent to which model simulations can be trusted, with the aim of constraining the likely range of future climate change. Second, we will develop metrics that are useful not only for constraining projections but also for model developers who are building the next generation of models. Our project has strong collaboration with the Met Office, who, together with the academic community, are the primary developers of models used for understanding climate change in the UK. We will engage with key Met Office and UKESM staff on a regular basis in order to determine how our results may be made most useful to model development.

气候模型是用于对未来气候变化进行预测的数值模型。由于计算能力的局限性，需要对模型的某些部分进行近似，尤其是在发生重要过程的小尺度上，该过程小于进行计算的模型网格。目前尚不清楚如何最好地近似小规模的过程，因此，不同的GCM使用不同的近似值并对未来气候变化产生不同的预测。这些不确定性中最重要的是如何表示低云，这就是循环提案的重点。现在，我们可以访问新的高分辨率卫星观察结果，我们可以使用这些观察结果来构建数据集，以使我们更好地了解云如何形成和分散，以及如何与他们在自己的环境中相互作用。我们还拥有高分辨率建模工具，能够代表以更高精度模拟云所需的物理过程。高分辨率模型在计算机上太昂贵了，无法在整个世界上运行多年的运行方式，该模型可以直接用于直接投影气候变化。但是，与卫星数据结合使用，它们可用于确定表示云对GCM模型网格的影响的最佳方法。这些信息可以转移到气候模型中，然后可以运行该信息以发现我们发现对全球气候变化的影响。在循环中，我们建议开发新的卫星数据和高分辨率模拟，这些模拟专门设计，以帮助改善和理解气候模型的反应，重点是热带和亚热带云。该项目旨在以两种方式帮助气候科学和政策社区。首先，我们做出的发现将用于评估气候模型通过为世界各地的气候变化小组（IPCC）报告建模的气候模型进行的模拟。当今的IPCC GCM代表云流程的表现如何？他们的表示形式如何改变未来的模拟，这是否合适？通过与高分辨率卫星和模型数据相比，通过确定模拟的保真度，我们将确定可以信任模型模拟的程度，以限制未来气候变化的可能范围。其次，我们将开发指标，这些指标不仅用于限制预测，还适用于建立下一代模型的模型开发人员。我们的项目与大都会办公室有强有力的合作，他们与学术界一起是用于了解英国气候变化的模型的主要开发商。我们将定期与主要的会议办公室和UKESM员工互动，以确定如何使我们的结果对模型开发最有用。

项目成果

期刊论文数量（9）

专著数量（0）

科研奖励数量（0）

会议论文数量（0）

专利数量（0）

The impacts of cloud-radiative changes on poleward atmospheric and oceanic energy transport in a warmer climate

DOI：
10.1175/jcli-d-20-0949.1
发表时间：
2021-07
期刊：
Journal of Climate
影响因子：
4.9
作者：
Yong-Jhih Chen;Yen‐Ting Hwang;P. Ceppi
通讯作者：
Yong-Jhih Chen;Yen‐Ting Hwang;P. Ceppi

Recent global climate feedback controlled by Southern Ocean cooling

DOI：
10.1038/s41561-023-01256-6
发表时间：
2023-08
期刊：
Nature Geoscience
影响因子：
18.3
作者：
Sarah M. Kang;P. Ceppi;Yue Yu;I. Kang
通讯作者：
Sarah M. Kang;P. Ceppi;Yue Yu;I. Kang

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation Pattern Effect

厄尔尼诺-南方涛动模式效应

DOI：
10.1029/2021gl095261
发表时间：
2021
期刊：
Geophysical Research Letters
影响因子：
5.2
作者：
Ceppi, Paulo;Fueglistaler, Stephan
通讯作者：
Fueglistaler, Stephan

Revisiting the wintertime emergent constraint of the southern hemispheric midlatitude jet response to global warming

重新审视南半球中纬度急流对全球变暖响应的冬季紧急约束

DOI：
10.5194/wcd-4-39-2023
发表时间：
2023
期刊：
Weather and Climate Dynamics
影响因子：
0
作者：
Breul P
通讯作者：
Breul P

Energy budget diagnosis of changing climate feedback.

DOI：
10.1126/sciadv.adf9302
发表时间：
2023-04-21
期刊：
SCIENCE ADVANCES
影响因子：
13.6
作者：
Cael, B. B.;Bloch-Johnson, Jonah;Ceppi, Paulo;Fredriksen, Hege-Beate;Goodwin, Philip;Gregory, Jonathan M.;Smith, Christopher J.;Williams, Richard G.
通讯作者：
Williams, Richard G.