Monitoring and predicting the effects of climate change on crop yields

监测和预测气候变化对农作物产量的影响

• 批准号: NE/S017208/1
• 负责人: Gordon Blair
• 金额: $ 3.54万
• 依托单位: Lancaster University
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2019
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2019 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FS017208%2F1
• 关键词: Monitoring; predicting; effects; climate; change

Climate change poses one of the greatest risks to future food production both in the UK and globally. Around 72% (17.5 million hectares) of the UK land area is farmed, with 37% of this as productive arable land. In 2017, the UK agriculture sector employed 419,000 people directly and generated Gross Value Added of £10.3 billion each year. The general consensus is that climate change will have both significant positive and negative impacts on UK agriculture, and these will vary depending on geographic region. Climate-related impacts may occur through gradual, long-term change, or as a result of more rapid and stochastic changes triggered by extreme weather events, such as droughts and wet winters. In the short- to medium-term, we expect the growth of certain crops, such as maize, to benefit from longer growing seasons and higher temperatures. However, in the longer-term, changing patterns of rainfall, increased evaporation and reduced water availability will all threaten crop production. Similarly, increasingly wet autumns will constrain agricultural production by adversely affecting the timing of farming operations. These could indirectly result in environmental damage, such as soil compaction and erosion. However, considerable uncertainty remains as to the location and severity of these impacts, and the rate of recovery following perturbations. It remains a research major challenge to disaggregate the impacts of climate change on crop production from many other technological and socio-economic factors affecting yield. This uncertainty and a lack of knowledge have left the UK agricultural sector poorly prepared for a future, changing climate. An indication of this was provided by the significant impact of the 2018 summer drought on yields of many major crops. BBSRC and NERC are currently funding a large national capability research programme "Achieving Sustainable Agricultural Systems, ASSIST" (https://assist.ceh.ac.uk/), with strong support from the farming industry. As part of this programme, the Centre for Ecology & Hydrology has assembled a strong multi- and inter-disciplinary team to develop and test new farming systems. Building on ASSIST, the CROP-NET project aims to scope out the requirements for a robust, real-time crop and grass yield monitoring and modelling service for the UK to provide improved predictions of future climate change impacts. Specifically, we will explore:1) the feasibility of using Earth Observation data in combination with large volumes of precision yield data collected by the farming industry to provide early warning detection of climate-related risks to crop yields across the UK;2) the use of fine-scale projections of UK climate under UKCP18 to target locations across the UK that represent the full range of climate change scenarios over the next 30-40 years. This process will consider different climate variables (e.g. temperature, precipitation) at different temporal resolutions (e.g. average summer temperature, drought periods, and heat peaks) that are likely to affect crop growth and yield. In this way, the monitoring of yield will provide data to pick apart the different process by which climate change will affect yields;3) the key social and economic factors affecting farmer perception of climate change threats, and their willingness and ability to adapt their farming systems in response to this; and4) the viability of using data from an established, real-time crop yield monitoring network to improve the predictive power of crop growth models to build a demonstrator prediction service, and therefore inform climate adaptation strategies for crop production.

气候变化位置是英国和全球未来粮食生产的最大风险之一。英国土地面积约有72％（1,750万公顷），其中37％是有生产力的土地。 2017年，英国农业部门直接雇用了419,000名员工，每年产生的总价值增长了103亿英镑。普遍的共识是，气候变化将对英国农业产生重大积极和负面影响，这些影响会因地理区域而异。与气候相关的影响可能通过年级，长期变化或由于极端天气事件（例如干旱和潮湿的冬季）触发的更快和随机变化而发生。在短期到中期，我们预计某些农作物（例如玉米）的生长将从较长的生长季节和更高的温度中受益。但是，在长期的情况下，降雨量的变化，经济增加和供水减少都会威胁到作物的产量。同样，越来越潮湿的秋季将通过不利影响农业运营的时间来限制算术生产。这些可能间接导致环境破坏，例如土壤压实和侵蚀。但是，这些影响的位置和严重性以及扰动后的恢复速率仍然存在很大的不确定性。将气候变化对农作物产量的影响与影响产量的许多其他技术和社会经济因素分类，这仍然是一项研究的主要挑战。这种不确定性和缺乏知识使英国的农业部门为未来和气候变化的准备不足。 2018年夏季干旱对许多主要农作物的产量的重大影响提供了这一点。 BBSRC和NERC目前正在为一项大型国家能力研究计划提供资金“实现可持续的农业系统，Assist”（https://assist.ceh.ac.uk/），并在农业行业得到强有力的支持下。作为该计划的一部分，生态与水文学中心已经组建了一个强大的多学科团队，以开发和测试新的农业系统。在辅助基础上，农作物网络项目旨在确定英国强大，实时的作物和草产量监测和建模服务的要求，以改善对未来气候变化影响的预测。具体而言，我们将探索：1）使用地球观测数据结合农业收集的大量精确收益数据的可行性，以提供对气候相关风险的预警检测到英国各地的农作物收益率； 2）使用UKCP18在UKCP18下，在UKCP18下，在UK的目标位置的使用范围是整个范围内的30个范围，这是climate propperty propperts clastects proppers proppert claste claste claste clast proffect proffect provers claste claste claste claste after claste claste after的范围。该过程将考虑不同临时分辨率（例如夏季温度，干旱期和热峰）处的不同气候变量（例如温度，降水），可能会影响作物的生长和产量。这样，对收益率的监控将提供数据，以分解气候变化会影响收益的不同过程； 3）影响农民对气候变化威胁的看法的关键社会和经济因素，以及他们对此响应的养殖系统的意愿和能力； 4）使用来自既定的实时作物产量监测网络的数据来提高作物增长模型的预测能力以建立示威者的预测服务，从而为作物生产的气候适应策略提供信息。