Atmospheric Composition and Radiative forcing changes due to UN International Ship Emissions regulations (ACRUISE)

联合国国际船舶排放法规 (ACRUISE) 导致的大气成分和辐射强迫变化

• 批准号: NE/S004807/1
• 负责人: Kenneth Carslaw
• 金额: $ 35.22万
• 依托单位: University of Leeds
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2019
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2019 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FS004807%2F1
• 关键词: Atmospheric; Composition; Radiative; forcing; changes

Ships generally burn low quality fuel and emit large quantities of sulfur dioxide and particulates, or aerosols (harmful at high concentrations), into the atmosphere above the ocean. In the presence of clouds the sulfur dioxide is rapidly converted into more particle mass growing them to sizes where they act as sites for cloud droplet formation. Given that about 70% of shipping activities occur within 400 km of the coast, ships are a large source of air pollution in coastal regions, causing 400k premature mortalities per year globally. In the UK, air pollution (including ship emissions) is responsible for 40,000 premature mortalities each year. In an effort to reduce air pollution from shipping activity, the United Nation's International Maritime Organization (IMO) is introducing new regulations from January 2020 that will require ships in international waters to reduce their maximum sulfur emissions from 3.5% by mass of fuel to 0.5%. Particulates emitted by ships may enhance the number of cloud droplets and potentially form regions of brighter clouds known as ship tracks. Largely because of this effect, some global models predict that ship emissions of particulates currently have a significant cooling influence on the global climate, masking a fraction of the warming caused by greenhouse gas emissions. So whilst a reduction in ship sulfur emission is predicted to almost halve the number of premature deaths globally via a reduction in sulfate aerosols, a lack of similar reductions in greenhouse gases from shipping (e.g. CO2) could lead to an overall climate warming. However, the magnitude of the cooling caused by particulates is very uncertain, with large discrepancies between global model and satellite-based estimates. This may be due to imprecise representations of the effects of aerosols on clouds in global models or biases in satellite detections of ship tracks. Furthermore, how shipping companies respond to the 2020 regulation (i.e. degree and method of compliance), in international waters where surveillance is challenging, is largely unknown and requires observational verification. We will take advantage of this unique and drastic "inverse geoengineering" event in 2020. By combining aircraft observations, long-term surface observations, satellite remote sensing, and process-level modelling, we will investigate the impact of the 2020 ship sulfur emission regulation on atmospheric composition, radiative forcing and climate in the North Atlantic. Results of this project will improve our understanding of the impact of ship emissions on air quality and climate.

船只通常会燃烧低品质的燃料，并散发出大量的二氧化硫和颗粒物，或气溶胶（高浓度的有害），进入海洋上方的大气中。在存在云的情况下，二氧化硫迅速转化为更多的颗粒质量，使其成为大小，使其充当云滴形成的位置。鉴于大约70％的运输活动发生在海岸400公里以内，因此船只是沿海地区的空气污染来源，每年在全球造成40万个早期死亡率。在英国，空气污染（包括船舶排放）每年造成40,000个过早死亡。为了减少运输活动的空气污染，联合国国际海事组织（IMO）从2020年1月起提出了新的法规，这些法规将需要国际水域的船只将其最大硫排放量从3.5％的燃料减少到0.5％。 船只发出的颗粒物可能会增强云滴的数量，并可能形成被称为船只轨道的明亮云的区域。很大程度上是由于这种效果，一些全球模型预测，当前颗粒物的船舶排放对全球气候产生了重大的冷却影响，从而掩盖了由温室气体排放引起的变暖的一小部分。因此，尽管预计硫酸盐气溶胶的减少几乎可以使全球过早死亡人数减少减少，但缺乏运输温室气体（例如CO2）的类似减少的温室气体可能会导致整体气候变暖。但是，由颗粒引起的冷却幅度非常不确定，在全球模型和基于卫星的估计之间存在很大的差异。这可能是由于对气溶胶对全球模型中云的影响的不精确表示或船舶轨道卫星检测中的偏见。此外，在监视具有挑战性的国际水域中，航运公司对2020年法规（即合规性的学位和合规性方法）的响应在很大程度上是未知的，需要观察性验证。我们将在2020年利用这一独特而剧烈的“逆地球工程”事件。通过将飞机观测，长期的表面观测，卫星遥感和过程级别的建模相结合，我们将研究2020年2020年船舶硫磺发射对大气组成，辐射强迫和北部地区气候的影响。该项目的结果将提高我们对船舶排放对空气质量和气候的影响的理解。