Dynamical constraints on the future of extratropical precipitation: atmospheric rivers and extratropical storms (DyARES)

未来温带降水的动力约束：大气河流和温带风暴（DyARES）

• 批准号: NE/R005222/1
• 负责人: Matthew Collins
• 金额: $ 4.84万
• 依托单位: UNIVERSITY OF EXETER
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2018
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2018 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FR005222%2F1
• 关键词: Dynamical; constraints; future; extratropical; precipitation

Most precipitation in the middle latitudes comes from extratropical cyclones - low pressure systems with fronts which regularly bring precipitation to the UK and elsewhere. Many large-scale precipitation extremes, high winds and floods are also associated with these events such that they have a major impact on society. Where these cyclones have long, trailing plumes of moisture connecting them to the tropics ('atmospheric rivers') the precipitation can be particularly intense. However, understanding the behaviour and controls on atmospheric rivers remains an emergent field.This proposal will support a collaboration between the University of Exeter, where there is considerable expertise in climate dynamics, including understanding the behaviour of extratropical cyclones, and Scripps Institution of Oceanography, where work at the forefront of understanding atmospheric rivers is being undertaken. This collaboration will provide access to proprietary atmospheric river datasets held at Scripps and an opportunity to work with researchers to understand and utilise those data. In particular, the influence of large-scale patterns of climate variability and their role in determining the behaviour of atmospheric rivers will be investigated. This is an avenue of research which is yet to be exploited but will be key to determining the response of atmospheric rivers (and their impacts) to a changing climate. This work adds significant value to an on-going NERC funded large-grant led at Exeter ("Robust Spatial Projections of Real-World Climate Change"). That project specifically investigates the physical processes and phenomena associated with future climate change and the present proposal will enhance our understanding of a physical phenomena - atmospheric rivers - which impact extratropical precipitation extremes and how they interact with both the large-scale and with extratropical cyclones. The work envisaged in this proposal will also directly inform a larger grant to be written during the course of the project, providing a platform for long term collaboration between the two groups and ensuring considerable additional value is added to this initial funding.

中纬度地区的大部分降水来自温带气旋——锋面的低压系统，定期为英国和其他地方带来降水。许多大规模的极端降水、大风和洪水也与这些事件有关，对社会产生重大影响。在这些气旋有长长的拖尾湿气羽流将其与热带地区（“大气河”）连接起来的地方，降水可能特别强烈。然而，了解大气河流的行为和控制仍然是一个新兴领域。该提案将支持埃克塞特大学与斯克里普斯海洋学研究所之间的合作，埃克塞特大学在气候动力学方面拥有丰富的专业知识，包括了解温带气旋的行为，那里正在进行了解大气河流的前沿工作。此次合作将提供对斯克里普斯持有的专有大气河流数据集的访问，并有机会与研究人员合作理解和利用这些数据。特别是，将研究大规模气候变化模式的影响及其在确定大气河流行为中的作用。这是一条尚未开发的研究途径，但将是确定大气河流（及其影响）对气候变化的响应的关键。这项工作为正在进行的 NERC 资助的埃克塞特大额赠款（“现实世界气候变化的稳健空间预测”）增添了重要价值。该项目专门研究与未来气候变化相关的物理过程和现象，目前的提案将增强我们对影响温带极端降水的物理现象——大气河流——以及它们如何与大规模和温带气旋相互作用的理解。该提案中设想的工作还将直接为项目过程中将要提供的更大规模赠款提供信息，为两个小组之间的长期合作提供平台，并确保为这笔初始资金增加可观的额外价值。

项目成果

Climatology and dynamics of the link between dry intrusions and cold fronts during winter. Part I: global climatology.

冬季干燥入侵与冷锋之间联系的气候学和动态。

• DOI: 10.1007/s00382-019-04745-w
• 发表时间: 2019
• 期刊: Climate dynamics
• 影响因子: 4.6
• 作者: Catto JL

Significantly increased extreme precipitation expected in Europe and North America from extratropical cyclones

• DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/aaed59
• 发表时间: 2018-12-01
• 期刊: ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
• 影响因子: 6.7
• 作者: Hawcroft, Matt;Walsh, Ella;Zappa, Giuseppe
• 通讯作者: Zappa, Giuseppe