NSFGEO-NERC: The central Apennines earthquake cascade under a new microscope

NSFGEO-NERC：新显微镜下的亚平宁中部地震级联

基本信息

批准号：
NE/R000794/1
负责人：
Margarita Segou
金额：
$ 41.9万
依托单位：
British Geological Survey
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2018
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2018 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FR000794%2F1
关键词：
NSFGEO NERC central Apennines earthquake

项目摘要

Three strongly felt earthquakes of magnitude M>5.9 occurred within a 50 km source zone along the Central Apennines mountain chain in a period of just over 2 months. The first, on the 24th August M=6.0 earthquake killed 297 people, leaving the medieval villages of Amatrice, Accumoli and Pescara di Tronto devastated. On 26th October two large shocks of M=5.4 and M=5.9 (32 minutes after) struck ~30 km further north in the same region as the 1997 M=6.0 Colfiorito earthquake. The largest (M=6.5) event to date that occurred only four days later, on 30th October, caused severe damage to buildings at Norcia, including the historical cathedral of San Benedetto. The area has been struck by destructive earthquakes of significant magnitude in historical and modern times. This is the third catastrophic sequence to occur in the Central Apennines, with preceding sequences to the north (M=6.0 Colfiorito) and south (M=6.1 L'Aquila) in 1997 and 2009, respectively. Cultural heritage sites including word-famous medieval churches near Amatrice village, have suffered severe damage and total collapse in many cases.Within this post-disaster environment there is a clear need to improve our understanding behind the evolution of such sequences and to develop tools that can support informed decision-making in the future. Our research will be based on a unique high quality dataset that is a product of on-going UK-Italian collaboration involving the deployment of more than 85 seismic sensors at the affected area since last fall. This unprecedented observational capability enables us to capture the "breadth and depth" of seismicity leading to the large events within the sequence. Based on this dataset we will develop innovative methods to translate measurements into testable physical models for the underlying processes. We aim at developing a comprehensive earthquake catalog that includes precise locations, source parameters and focal mechanisms derived from algorithms that are able detect, locate and characterize even the smallest events. This new 'microscope' provides information that is crucial for unravelling the physical processes that underlie sequences such as the extended 2016 Amatrice/Norcia earthquakes in Italy. We will then use the high-accuracy catalog to formulate and test alternative earthquake triggering hypotheses and integrate those in the development and validation of testable forecast models using empirical and physics based models to ensure high predictability. The project brings together world-experts on earthquake detection, seismic source characterization, earthquake triggering and forecasting from US, UK and Italy in an effort to develop breakthrough approaches to address current challenges that not only impede our understanding behind earthquake processes but also weaken our scientific response in any post-earthquake disaster environment. In the course of our research we will involve further international initiatives such as CSEP (Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability) to ensure transparent testing of our forecast models, and EPOS (European Plate Observation System) to maximize knowledge exchange and the scientific impact of the project in other countries. The new observational capability to detect, locate and characterize even the smallest magnitude events within few hours will find application to induced, geothermal and volcanic activity areas in US and Europe. We anticipate that the application of our research framework especially in high seismic hazard sites worldwide will enable future decision making with the same scientific standards across different operational and cultural environments.

在仅2个月以上的时间内，沿着中央亚平宁山脉山脉的50公里源区域内发生了三场强烈的M> 5.9地震。第一个，8月24日，M = 6.0地震杀死了297人，留下了中世纪的Amatrice，Accipoli和Pescara di Tronto的村庄。 10月26日，两次M = 5.4的大冲击和M = 5.9（32分钟后）在1997 M = 6.0 Colfiorito地震的同一地区向北撞到〜30公里。迄今为止，最大的（M = 6.5）事件仅在四天后，即10月30日发生，对诺西亚的建筑物造成了严重破坏，包括圣本奈多的历史大教堂。在历史和现代的巨大巨大地震中，该地区受到了袭击。这是在中央亚平宁山脉中发生的第三次灾难性序列，在1997年和2009年分别为北部的序列（M = 6.0 colfiorito）和南部（M = 6.1 l'aquila）。在许多情况下，在许多情况下，在这种情况后环境中，明显需要提高我们在此类序列的演变背后的理解，并开发能够支持未来的明智决策的工具。我们的研究将基于一个独特的高质量数据集，该数据集是正在进行的英国 - 意大利合作的产物，涉及自去年秋天以来在受影响地区部署85多个地震传感器。这种前所未有的观察能力使我们能够捕获地震性的“广度和深度”，从而导致序列中的大事件。基于此数据集，我们将开发创新的方法，以将测量值转换为基础过程的可测试物理模型。我们旨在开发全面的地震目录，其中包括能够检测，定位和表征最小事件的算法的精确位置，源参数和焦点机制。这种新的“显微镜”提供了有关揭示诸如意大利延长的2016 Amatrice/Norcia地震之类的物理过程至关重要的信息。然后，我们将使用高准确性目录来制定和测试触发假设的替代地震，并使用基于经验和物理学的模型将可预测模型的可预测模型的开发和验证整合在一起，以确保高可预测性。该项目汇集了世界，地震源表征，地震源表征，触发地震源和意大利的预测，以开发突破性的方法来应对当前的挑战，这些挑战不仅会阻碍我们在地震过程后面的理解，而且在任何赛后灾难环境中都削弱了我们的科学反应。在研究过程中，我们将涉及进一步的国际举措，例如CSEP（地震可预测性研究），以确保对我们的预测模型进行透明测试，以及EPOS（欧洲板块观测系统），以最大程度地提高知识交流和该项目对其他国家的科学影响。在几个小时内发现，定位和表征最小的事件的新观察能力将在美国和欧洲发现诱发的地热和火山活动区域的应用。我们预计，我们的研究框架的应用，尤其是在全球高地震危险站点中的应用，将使未来的决策在不同的运营和文化环境中具有相同的科学标准。