NSFGEO-NERC: The central Apennines earthquake cascade under a new microscope

NSFGEO-NERC：新显微镜下的亚平宁中部地震级联

基本信息

批准号：
NE/R000794/1
负责人：
Margarita Segou
金额：
$ 41.9万
依托单位：
British Geological Survey
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2018
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2018 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FR000794%2F1
关键词：
NSFGEO NERC central Apennines earthquake

项目摘要

Three strongly felt earthquakes of magnitude M>5.9 occurred within a 50 km source zone along the Central Apennines mountain chain in a period of just over 2 months. The first, on the 24th August M=6.0 earthquake killed 297 people, leaving the medieval villages of Amatrice, Accumoli and Pescara di Tronto devastated. On 26th October two large shocks of M=5.4 and M=5.9 (32 minutes after) struck ~30 km further north in the same region as the 1997 M=6.0 Colfiorito earthquake. The largest (M=6.5) event to date that occurred only four days later, on 30th October, caused severe damage to buildings at Norcia, including the historical cathedral of San Benedetto. The area has been struck by destructive earthquakes of significant magnitude in historical and modern times. This is the third catastrophic sequence to occur in the Central Apennines, with preceding sequences to the north (M=6.0 Colfiorito) and south (M=6.1 L'Aquila) in 1997 and 2009, respectively. Cultural heritage sites including word-famous medieval churches near Amatrice village, have suffered severe damage and total collapse in many cases.Within this post-disaster environment there is a clear need to improve our understanding behind the evolution of such sequences and to develop tools that can support informed decision-making in the future. Our research will be based on a unique high quality dataset that is a product of on-going UK-Italian collaboration involving the deployment of more than 85 seismic sensors at the affected area since last fall. This unprecedented observational capability enables us to capture the "breadth and depth" of seismicity leading to the large events within the sequence. Based on this dataset we will develop innovative methods to translate measurements into testable physical models for the underlying processes. We aim at developing a comprehensive earthquake catalog that includes precise locations, source parameters and focal mechanisms derived from algorithms that are able detect, locate and characterize even the smallest events. This new 'microscope' provides information that is crucial for unravelling the physical processes that underlie sequences such as the extended 2016 Amatrice/Norcia earthquakes in Italy. We will then use the high-accuracy catalog to formulate and test alternative earthquake triggering hypotheses and integrate those in the development and validation of testable forecast models using empirical and physics based models to ensure high predictability. The project brings together world-experts on earthquake detection, seismic source characterization, earthquake triggering and forecasting from US, UK and Italy in an effort to develop breakthrough approaches to address current challenges that not only impede our understanding behind earthquake processes but also weaken our scientific response in any post-earthquake disaster environment. In the course of our research we will involve further international initiatives such as CSEP (Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability) to ensure transparent testing of our forecast models, and EPOS (European Plate Observation System) to maximize knowledge exchange and the scientific impact of the project in other countries. The new observational capability to detect, locate and characterize even the smallest magnitude events within few hours will find application to induced, geothermal and volcanic activity areas in US and Europe. We anticipate that the application of our research framework especially in high seismic hazard sites worldwide will enable future decision making with the same scientific standards across different operational and cultural environments.

在短短两个多月的时间里，沿亚平宁山脉中部50公里震源区发生了3起震级大于5.9级的强烈地震。第一场是 8 月 24 日发生的 6.0 级地震，造成 297 人死亡，阿马特里切 (Amatrice)、阿库莫利 (Accumoli) 和佩斯卡拉迪特龙托 (Pescara di Tronto) 等中世纪村庄遭到破坏。 10 月 26 日，两次 M=5.4 和 M=5.9（32 分钟后）的大地震袭击了 1997 年 M=6.0 Colfiorito 地震的同一地区，向北约 30 公里。迄今为止最大的（M=6.5）事件仅发生在四天后的 10 月 30 日，对诺尔恰的建筑物造成严重破坏，其中包括历史悠久的圣贝内代托大教堂。该地区在历史和现代都曾遭受过严重的破坏性地震。这是亚平宁山脉中部发生的第三次灾难性序列，之前的序列分别发生在 1997 年和 2009 年的北部 (M=6.0 Colfiorito) 和南部 (M=6.1 L'Aquila)。文化遗产地，包括阿马特里切村附近举世闻名的中世纪教堂，在许多情况下都遭受了严重破坏，甚至完全倒塌。在这种灾后环境中，显然需要提高我们对此类序列演变的理解，并开发工具可以支持未来做出明智的决策。我们的研究将基于一个独特的高质量数据集，该数据集是英国和意大利持续合作的产物，自去年秋天以来，英国和意大利在受影响地区部署了超过 85 个地震传感器。这种前所未有的观测能力使我们能够捕获导致序列中大型事件的地震活动的“广度和深度”。基于该数据集，我们将开发创新方法，将测量结果转化为底层过程的可测试物理模型。我们的目标是开发一个全面的地震目录，其中包括精确的位置、震源参数和源自算法的震源机制，这些算法能够检测、定位和描述最小的事件。这种新的“显微镜”提供的信息对于揭示序列背后的物理过程至关重要，例如 2016 年意大利阿马特里切/诺尔恰大地震。然后，我们将使用高精度目录来制定和测试替代地震触发假设，并使用基于经验和物理的模型将这些假设整合到可测试预测模型的开发和验证中，以确保高可预测性。该项目汇集了来自美国、英国和意大利的地震探测、震源表征、地震触发和预报领域的世界专家，努力开发突破性方法来应对当前的挑战，这些挑战不仅阻碍了我们对地震过程的理解，而且削弱了我们的科学能力。任何震后灾难环境下的响应。在我们的研究过程中，我们将参与更多的国际举措，例如 CSEP（地震可预测性研究合作实验室），以确保我们的预测模型的透明测试，以及 EPOS（欧洲板块观测系统），以最大限度地提高知识交流和科学影响其他国家的项目。新的观测能力可以在几小时内探测、定位和描述即使是最小震级的事件，也将应用于美国和欧洲的诱发、地热和火山活动区域。我们预计，我们的研究框架的应用，特别是在全球地震高发地区的应用，将使未来的决策能够在不同的运营和文化环境中采用相同的科学标准。