SWEET:Super-Warm Early Eocene Temperatures and climate: understanding the response of the Earth to high CO2 through integrated modelling and data

SWEET：始新世早期超温暖温度和气候：通过综合建模和数据了解地球对高二氧化碳的反应

基本信息

批准号：
NE/P019080/1
负责人：
Tina Van De Flierdt
金额：
$ 18.6万
依托单位：
Imperial College London
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2017
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2017 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FP019080%2F1
关键词：
SWEET Super Warm Early Eocene

项目摘要

The Earth's climate is currently changing rapidly, primarily due to emissions of greenhouse gases caused by human industrialisation. These emissions are projected to increase through this century, and under some scenarios atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations could reach more than 1000 parts per million (ppm) by the year 2100, compared with 280 ppm prior to industrialisation. In order to predict the sociological, environmental, and economic impacts of such scenarios, and thus to better prepare for them, the only tool at our disposal is climate modelling. In order to assess our confidence in predictions from climate models, they are routinely tested under conditions of known climate. However, this testing (and associated tuning of the models) is almost exclusively carried out under modern climate conditions, and relative to recently observed climate change, for which CO2 concentrations are less than 400 ppmv. As such, our state-of-the-art climate models have never been tested under the high CO2, super-warm climate conditions to which they are primarily applied, and upon which major policy decisions are made.However, there exist time periods in Earth's deeper past (for example the Eocene, about 50 million years ago) when CO2 concentrations were similar to those expected by the end of this century; but climatological information from these time periods is currently sparse and is associated with large uncertainties, and the exact concentrations of CO2 are only poorly known. Recent changes in our understanding of how the geological record preserves climate signals, and developments in laboratory techniques, mean that for the first time there exists a new and exciting opportunity to remedy this situation and provide a much-needed evaluation of our very latest climate models in a super-warm world.In SWEET, we will apply these emerging techniques, and develop new methodologies and tools, to produce a global dataset of Eocene temperatures. Coupled with new and high-fidelity reconstructions of Eocene CO2 concentrations, and state-of-the-art maps of the 'palaeogeograpy' (continental positions, mountain ranges, ocean depths etc.), we will use this dataset to test a state-of-the art climate model under high atmospheric CO2, Eocene conditions. The model, UKESM, is identical to that being used by the UK Met Office in the international 'CMIP6' project, which itself will be the primary input to the next Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report. We will also use our data and additional model simulations (running at high spatial resolution) to investigate the relative importance of the various mechanisms which determine the response of the Earth system to high CO2 and to changes in palaeogeography.A characteristic of SWEET is that we will take full account of uncertainties in the geological data and the modelling, and our model-data comparisons will be underpinned by a statistical framework which incorporates these uncertainties. We will also adopt a 'multi-proxy' approach by using several independent geological archives to reconstruct temperature. For one of these archives, namely the oxygen isotopic composition of the fossilised shells of microscopic marine creatures from the Eocene, we will apply a particularly innovative approach which will enable us to 'resurrect' previously discredited data, by using an extremely fine-scale 'ion probe' to investigate how these isotopic signatures of past climate change are recorded in individual fossils.SWEET has strong links to UK Met Office, and to the international DeepMIP project, which is part of the 'Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project', itself part of CMIP6. We expect our results to feed into the next IPCC assessment reports and therefore to ultimately inform policy.

地球的气候目前正在迅速变化，这主要是由于人类工业化引起的温室气体排放。预计这些排放量将在本世纪增加，在某些情况下，到2100年，大气中的二氧化碳（CO2）的浓度可能达到每百万（PPM）超过1000份，而工业化之前的280 ppm。为了预测这种情况的社会学，环境和经济影响，因此为它们做好准备，我们唯一可以使用的工具是气候建模。为了评估我们对气候模型预测的信心，在已知气候条件下通常对它们进行常规测试。但是，这种测试（以及模型的相关调整）几乎完全在现代气候条件下进行，并且相对于最近观察到的气候变化，二氧化碳浓度小于400 ppmv。因此，我们的最先进的气候模型从未在高二氧化碳，超级温暖的气候条件下进行测试，主要应用了主要的政策决策。但是，在地球上更深的过去（例如，始世前，大约5000万年前的二氧化碳浓度）与本世纪末的预期相似时，存在于地球更深的过去（例如，始世上）。但是，这些时期的气候信息目前很少，并且与大型不确定性有关，而确切的二氧化碳浓度仅为知名度。我们对地质记录如何保存气候信号和实验室技术的发展的最新变化意味着，这是第一次存在一个新的和令人兴奋的机会来纠正这种情况，并在Supper-Warm World中对我们的最新气候模型进行了急需的评估。再加上始新世二氧化碳浓度的新的和高保真的重建，以及“古代疗法”的最先进地图（大陆位置，山脉，海洋深度等），我们将使用此数据集测试在高大气二氧化碳二氧化碳状态下的最先进的ART气候模型。 UKESM模型与英国大都会在国际“ CMIP6”项目中使用的模型相同，该项目本身将是下一个政府间气候变化小组（IPCC）评估报告的主要输入。我们还将使用我们的数据和其他模型模拟（以高空间分辨率运行）来研究各种机制的相对重要性，这些机制确定了地球系统对高CO2的响应以及对古地理学的变化的响应。甜蜜的特征是，我们将全面说明地质数据和模型的不确定性，以及我们的模型范围内的统计范围内的统计范围不足。我们还将通过使用几个独立的地质档案来重建温度来采用“多核”方法。对于这些档案之一，即从始新世的微观生物的化石壳中的氧同位素组成，我们将采用一种特别创新的方法，使我们能够“复活”以前被抹黑的数据，通过使用极为细微的“ ion proge”录制了这些同位素的范围，以录制了这些同位素的范围。办公室，以及国际DeepMip项目，该项目是“古气候建模对比计划”的一部分，本身就是CMIP6的一部分。我们希望我们的结果能够融入下一份IPCC评估报告中，因此最终为政策提供了信息。