How does ocean warming and steric sea level rise depend on carbon emissions?

海洋变暖和海平面上升如何取决于碳排放？

• 批准号: NE/K012789/1
• 负责人: Richard Williams
• 金额: $ 30.8万
• 依托单位: University of Liverpool
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2014
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2014 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FK012789%2F1
• 关键词: How; does; ocean; warming; steric

There is widespread concern about how climate is responding to the on going rise in atmospheric CO2 from carbon emissions and land use changes. In our view, the climate response can be divided into the following stages: 1. Past and on going increases in atmospheric CO2 are leading to a global warming of up to 0.6C over the last 50 years. The regional variability is though much larger than this global signal. 2. Continuing emissions are increasing atmospheric CO2 and driving a heat flux into the ocean, leading to ocean warming and steric sea level rise. The amount of warming is sensitive to the carbon emission scenario, as well as the rate of carbon uptake by the ocean and terrestrial system. 3. The regional distribution of warming and steric sea level rise is sensitive to how the ocean interior takes up heat, involving the transfer of surface properties into the thermocline and deep ocean. 4. After emissions cease, there will be a thermal adjustment of the lower atmosphere, and the net heat flux into the ocean will cease, and so ocean warming and steric sea level will eventually likewise cease. 5. As well as a thermal equilibrium being reached, the atmosphere and ocean approach a carbon equilibrium after emissions cease, on a timescale of perhaps several hundred years to a thousand years. At this equilibrium, the final atmospheric CO2 and the amount of climate warming is related to cumulative carbon emissions based on our idealised theory.The climate warming and steric sea level rise will be investigated using diagnostics of (i) present day temperature and salinity observations, allowing the steric sea level to be diagnosed;(ii) thought experiments with a range of ocean and climate models on timescales of centuries to several thousand years, designed to explore how the ocean warming spreads from the sea surface into the ocean interior, which ultimately determines the steric sea level rise;(iii) comparison with diagnostics of state of the art climate models, integrated for a century;(iv) comparison with idealised theory, relevant for when emissions cease;and (iv) finally a down scaling to provide bounds on the steric sea level response on a regional scale.This combination of the theory and Earth System models of intermediate complexity will allow a wide parameter space to be explored for a range of emission scenarios, much broader than that usually employed within IPCC assessments for the next 100 years. The study has the potential to provide accessible bounds for steric sea level rise, relevant for policy makers interested in different energy policies, and a link to end users is provided via the collaboration with the Hadley Centre.

人们普遍担心气候如何应对因碳排放和土地利用变化而导致的大气二氧化碳含量的持续上升。我们认为，气候响应可分为以下几个阶段： 1. 过去和现在大气中二氧化碳含量的增加导致过去 50 年来全球变暖高达 0.6 摄氏度。不过，区域变异性比全球信号大得多。 2. 持续的排放正在增加大气中的二氧化碳，并将热通量引入海洋，导致海洋变暖和海平面上升。变暖的程度对碳排放情景以及海洋和陆地系统的碳吸收率很敏感。 3. 变暖和海平面上升的区域分布对海洋内部如何吸收热量很敏感，涉及到表面性质向温跃层和深海的转移。 4.排放停止后，低层大气将发生热调节，进入海洋的净热通量将停止，因此海洋变暖和立体海平面最终也将停止。 5. 在排放停止后，除了达到热平衡之外，大气和海洋也接近碳平衡，时间尺度可能是几百年到一千年。在这种平衡下，最终的大气二氧化碳和气候变暖的量与基于我们理想化理论的累积碳排放量相关。气候变暖和空间海平面上升将使用以下诊断进行研究：（i）当前温度和盐度观测，允许诊断立体海平面；（ii）在几个世纪到几千年的时间尺度上对一系列海洋和气候模型进行思想实验，旨在探索海洋变暖如何从海面蔓延到海洋内部，最终导致海洋变暖。决定空间位阻海平面上升；(iii) 与整合了一个世纪的最先进气候模型的诊断进行比较；(iv) 与与何时停止排放相关的理想化理论进行比较；以及 (iv) 最后缩小规模，以提供对该理论与中等复杂性的地球系统模型的结合将允许为一系列排放情景探索广泛的参数空间，比 IPCC 未来 100 年评估中通常采用的参数空间要广泛得多年。该研究有可能提供海平面上升的可及范围，与对不同能源政策感兴趣的政策制定者相关，并通过与哈德利中心的合作提供与最终用户的联系。

项目成果

The Relationship Between U.S. East Coast Sea Level and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: A Review.

美国东海岸海平面与大西洋经向翻转环流之间的关系：回顾。

• DOI: http://dx.10.1029/2019jc015152
• 发表时间: 2019
• 期刊: Journal of geophysical research. Oceans
• 作者: Little CM

The effect of Mediterranean exchange flow on European time mean sea level

地中海交换流量对欧洲时间平均海平面的影响

• DOI: http://dx.10.1002/2014gl062654
• 发表时间: 2015
• 期刊: Geophysical Research Letters
• 影响因子: 5.2
• 作者: Hughes C

Adjusting Mitigation Pathways to Stabilize Climate at 1.5°C and 2.0°C Rise in Global Temperatures to Year 2300

调整减缓路径以将气候稳定在 2300 年全球气温上升 1.5°C 和 2.0°C 的范围内

• DOI: http://dx.10.1002/2017ef000732
• 发表时间: 2018
• 期刊: Earth's Future
• 作者: Goodwin P

Sea Level and the Role of Coastal Trapped Waves in Mediating the Influence of the Open Ocean on the Coast

海平面和沿海陷波在调节公海对海岸影响中的作用

• DOI: 10.1007/s10712-019-09535-x
• 发表时间: 2019-11-01
• 期刊: Surveys in Geophysics
• 影响因子: 4.6
• 作者: C. Hughes;I. Fukumori;S. Griffies;J. Huthnance;S. Minobe;P. Spence;K. Thompson;A. Wise
• 通讯作者: A. Wise

Drivers of Continued Surface Warming After Cessation of Carbon Emissions

碳排放停止后地表持续变暖的驱动因素

• DOI: http://dx.10.1002/2017gl075080
• 发表时间: 2017
• 期刊: Geophysical Research Letters
• 影响因子: 5.2
• 作者: Williams R