HyCRISTAL: Integrating Hydro-Climate Science into Policy Decisions for Climate-Resilient Infrastructure and Livelihoods in East Africa

HyCRISTAL：将水文气候科学纳入东非气候适应性基础设施和生计的政策决策中

基本信息

批准号：
NE/M02038X/1
负责人：
John Marsham
金额：
$ 170.85万
依托单位：
University of Leeds
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2015
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2015 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FM02038X%2F1
关键词：
HyCRISTAL Integrating Hydro Climate Science

项目摘要

East Africa (EA) has one of the world's fastest growing populations, with maxima around water-bodies and rapid urbanisation. Climate change is adding to existing problems increasing vulnerability of the poorest. HyCRISTAL is driven by EA priorities. EA communities rely on rainfall for food via agriculture. EA's inland lakes are rain-fed and provide water, power and fisheries. For EA's growing cities, climate impacts on water resources will affect water supply & treatment. HyCRISTAL will therefore operate in both urban & rural contexts. Change in water availability will be critical for climate-change impacts in EA, but projections are highly uncertain for rain, lakes, rivers and groundwater, and for extremes. EA "Long-Rains" are observed to be decreasing; while models tend to predict an increase (the "EA Climate paradox") although predictions are not consistent. This uncertainty provides a fundamental limit on the utility of climate information to inform policy. HyCRISTAL will therefore make best use of current projections to quantify uncertainty in user-relevant quantities and provide ground-breaking research to understand and reduce the uncertainty that currently limits decision making. HyCRISTAL will work with users to deliver world-leading climate research quantifying uncertainty from natural variability, uncertainty from climate forcings including those previously unassessed, and uncertainty in response to these forcings; including uncertainties from key processes such as convection and land-atmopshere coupling that are misrepresented in global models. Research will deliver new understanding of the mechanisms that drive the uncertainty in projections. HyCRISTAL will use this information to understand trends, when climate-change signals will emerge and provide a process-based expert judgement on projections. Working with policy makers, inter-disciplinary research (hydrology, economics, engineering, social science, ecology and decision-making) will quantify risks for rural & urban livelihoods, quantify climate impacts and provide the necessary tools to use climate information for decision making. HyCRISTAL will work with partners to co-produce research for decision-making on a 5-40 year timescale, demonstrated in 2 main pilots for urban water and policies to enable adaptive climate-smart rural livelihoods. These cover two of three "areas of need" from the African Ministerial Council on Environment's Comprehensive Framework of African Climate Change Programmes. HyCRISTAL has already engaged 12 partners from across EA. HyCRISTAL's Advisory Board will provide a mechanism for further growing stakeholder engagement.HyCRISTAL will work with the FCFA global & regional projects and CCKE, sharing methods, tools, user needs, expertise & communication. Uniquely, HyCRISTAL will capitalise on the new LVB-HyNEWS, an African-led consortium, governed by the East African Community, the Lake Victoria Basin Commission and National Meteorological and Hydrological agencies, with the African Ministerial Conference on Meteorology as an observer.HyCRISTAL will build EA capacity directly via collaboration (11 of 25 HyCRISTAL Co-Is are African, with 9 full-time in Africa), including data collection and via targeted workshops and teaching. HyCRISTAL will deliver evidence of impact, with new and deep climate science insights that will far outlast its duration. It will support decisions for climate-resilient infrastructure and livelihoods through application of new understanding in its pilots, with common methodological and infrastructure lessons to promote policy and enable transformational change for impact-at-scale. Using a combination of user-led and science-based management tools, HyCRISTAL will ensure the latest physical science, engineering and social-science yield maximum impacts. HyCRISTAL will deliver outstanding outputs across FCFA's aims; synergies with LVB-HyNEWS will add to these and ensure longevity beyond HyCRISTAL.

东非（EA）是世界上增长最快的人口之一，在水体和快速城市化周围的最大值。气候变化正在增加现有问题，从而增加了最贫穷的脆弱性。主体是由EA优先事项驱动的。 EA社区通过农业依靠降雨来供食品。 EA的内陆湖泊是雨水，提供水，动力和渔业。对于EA不断增长的城市，气候对水资源的影响将影响供水和处理。因此，主体将在城市和农村环境下运作。供水的变化对于EA的气候变化影响至关重要，但是对于雨，湖泊，河流和地下水以及极端的预测，预测高度不确定。观察到“长洗”正在减少；尽管模型倾向于预测增加（“ EA气候悖论”），尽管预测不一致。这种不确定性为气候信息的实用性提供了基本限制，以告知政策。因此，主体将充分利用当前的预测，以量化与用户相关的数量的不确定性，并提供开创性的研究，以了解和减少当前限制决策的不确定性。 ByCristal将与用户合作，提供世界领先的气候研究，从自然变异性，包括先前未经评论的人在内的气候强迫以及对这些强迫的不确定性中量化不确定性；包括在全球模型中歪曲的对流和陆地上耦合等关键过程的不确定性。研究将对推动预测不确定性的机制提供新的了解。当气候变化信号将出现并为预测提供基于过程的专家判断时，主体将使用此信息来了解趋势。与政策制定者，跨学科研究（水文，经济学，工程，社会科学，生态学和决策）合作将量化农村和城市生计的风险，量化气候影响，并提供必要的工具来使用气候信息进行决策。 Bycristal将与合作伙伴合作，共同制作5 - 40年时间范围的决策研究，这是2个主要的城市水和政策飞行员，以实现适应性气候智能的农村生活生计。这些涵盖了非洲环境部长委员会的非洲气候变化计划综合框架中的三个“需要领域”中的两个。 Hycristal已经与来自EA的12个合作伙伴订婚。主持人的顾问委员会将为不断增长的利益相关者参与提供一种机制。Hycristal将与FCFA全球和区域项目以及CCKE，共享方法，工具，用户需求，专业知识和通信。 Uniquely, HyCRISTAL will capitalise on the new LVB-HyNEWS, an African-led consortium, governed by the East African Community, the Lake Victoria Basin Commission and National Meteorological and Hydrological agencies, with the African Ministerial Conference on Meteorology as an observer.HyCRISTAL will build EA capacity directly via collaboration (11 of 25 HyCRISTAL Co-Is are African, with 9 full-time in Africa), including data收集并通过有针对性的研讨会和教学。主体将提供影响的证据，并具有新的和深层的气候科学见解，这将超过其持续时间。它将通过在其飞行员中应用新的理解来支持对气候硫化基础设施和生计的决策，并在其飞行员中使用新的理解，并提供常见的方法论和基础设施课程，以促进政策并实现对影响力的变革变革。使用用户主导和基于科学的管理工具的结合，主体将确保最新的物理科学，工程和社会科学产生最大的影响。主体将在FCFA的目标中提供出色的产出；与LVB-Hynews的协同作用将增加它们，并确保寿命超出合并。